Cubs vs Mariners Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Sat 7:15 PM ET. On the mound: David Peterson (Cubs) vs Kade Anderson (Mariners). Moneyline: Cubs +100 (Fanatics) at Mariners -104 (OnyxOdds) — best prices across 8 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Pete Crow-Armstrong at +412 headlines the Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | +412 | ProphetX | 19.5% | 38 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | +456 | Kalshi | 18.0% | 34 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 36 |
| Julio Rodríguez (SEA) | +579 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 14.7% | 28 |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | +637 | Polymarket 🎁 | 13.6% | 36 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | +650 | BetMGM 🎁 | 13.3% | 32 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | +650 | Unibet | 13.3% | 37 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | +700 | Fanatics | 12.5% | 37 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 22, 2026 · 01:05 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at T-Mobile Park: park index 103.0 · wind 5 mph.
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — punishes sinkers and cutters 14% of the time, and that is 35% of what this starter throws · 45% of his damage flies pull-side · homers every 11 PA against lefties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +456 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +456 · NoVig +413
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) — punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 27% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +617 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +617
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC) — homers every 16 PA against lefties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +475 at Fanatics | exchanges: NoVig +456
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — 36% of his damage flies pull-side · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +412 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +373 · ProphetX +412 · NoVig +400
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) — homers every 20 PA against lefties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +573 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · ProphetX +529
- Michael Busch (CHC) — on the bat alone — homers every 30 PA against lefties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence C)
- books: best +700 at Fanatics
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +637 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +637
- Ian Happ (CHC) — 31% of his damage flies pull-side. (model confidence C)
- books: best +650 at BetMGM | exchanges: NoVig +567
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Cobi O'Connell on Tails (#6 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+624). Bet now → DraftKings
- Conormacpicks on Tails likes Under 4.5 Total Runs 5I (-120).
- Bank of Dennis on Tails likes these plays:
More from these experts on Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners. Cobi O'Connell, Conormacpicks post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers · San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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