Twins vs Padres Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Sat 8:40 PM ET. On the mound: Dean Kremer (Twins) vs Casey Mize (Padres). Moneyline: Twins +154 (Betcris) at Padres -155 (Fanatics) — best prices across 8 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
The Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres board opens with Byron Buxton at +323 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | +323 | ProphetX | 23.6% | 34 |
| Kody Clemens (MIN) | +456 | NoVig | 18.0% | 30 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | +456 | ProphetX | 18.0% | 38 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | +460 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 17.9% | 37 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 35 |
| Josh Bell (MIN) | +550 | HardRock | 15.4% | 36 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | +579 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 14.7% | 36 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | +579 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 14.7% | 37 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 22, 2026 · 01:11 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Petco Park: park index 99.3 · wind 3 mph.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) — punishes four-seam fastballs 16% of the time, and that is 26% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +319 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +319 · ProphetX +318
- Manny Machado (SD) — punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 16% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +441 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +434 · NoVig +441
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +434 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · Polymarket +434
- Kody Clemens (MIN) — punishes sliders 15% of the time, and that is 29% of what this starter throws · homers every 21 PA against righties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +456 at NoVig | exchanges: NoVig +456
- Josh Bell (MIN) — punishes sliders 14% of the time, and that is 29% of what this starter throws · homers every 24 PA against righties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +549 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +549 · NoVig +545
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — punishes four-seam fastballs 14% of the time, and that is 36% of what this starter throws · homers every 22 PA against righties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +567 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · NoVig +567
- Ryan Jeffers (MIN) — homers every 30 PA against righties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +568 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +568
- Royce Lewis (MIN) — on the bat alone — homers every 36 PA against righties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +466
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- BGrebbs on Tails (#7 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Brooks Lee Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+830). Bet now
- DFSnDonuts Picks on Tails (#2 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Under 0.5 Total Runs 1I (-112). Bet now → Kalshi
- JediModi on Tails likes these plays:
- KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS on Tails likes San Diego Padres Moneyline (-116). Bet now
- Bank of Dennis on Tails likes these plays:
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes Trevor Larnach Over 0.5 Total Batter Strikeouts (-115). Bet now → TheScore
- EMac on Tails likes San Diego Padres -1.5 Run Line (+175). Bet now → HardRock
- OddsShopper PRO on Tails likes Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 Total Hits (+195). Bet now → Polymarket
More from these experts on Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres. BGrebbs, DFSnDonuts Picks, JediModi, KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers · San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
