TL;DR
The panel's top of the board: Shohei Ohtani (15%), James Wood (14%), Juan Soto (10%). Every verdict below was made price-blind from live fetched data, and every one gets graded against the real settlement on our scoreboard.
The crowd pays 64 cents for Ohtani, but the fetched NL leaderboards the models were handed tell a more open story: James Wood leads the league in OPS, Kyle Schwarber leads it in home runs, and Ohtani's name shows up in the tables without dominating them. The panel's blend lands far below the price, and their quoted reasoning is a running argument about how much two-way value and reputation should count against on-paper production.
What The Models Were Given
Each model saw the live NL hitting leaderboards (home runs, average, OPS, RBI) fetched from MLB StatsAPI at generation time, with a note that two-way seasons carry extra weight and that absence from every table is real information. Eight model seats were asked on every outcome; where a seat's verdict did not return, its table cell shows an em dash and the blend averages the seats that answered.
Where The Machines Split From The Money
Shohei Ohtani: market 64¢, AI blend 15% (49 points below the crowd). Claude Sonnet: "Ohtani lacks NL leads in HR/AVG/RBI, only mid-pack OPS; Wood/Abrams/Schwarber look stronger MVP cases."
Pete Crow-Armstrong: market 37¢, AI blend 9% (28 points below the crowd). Claude Sonnet: "PCA is solid but trails Wood, Schwarber, Abrams in HR/OBPS/RBI; MVP likely goes to a leader in those." [Editor's note: per the fetched card, Crow-Armstrong's .933 OPS ranks ahead of Schwarber, not behind. The verdict stands as published and will be graded as such.]
James Wood: market 4¢, AI blend 14% (10 points above the crowd). Claude Fable: "Wood leads NL OPS with top-3 HR, but Ohtani's two-way value, teammate vote-splitting, and likely weak Nationals record cap his chances."
The Board
| Outcome | Kalshi | AI blend | ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GLM 5.2 | Kimi K3 | DeepSeek V4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 64¢ | 15% | 16% | 20% | 16% | 8% | 15% | 18% | 10% | 18% |
| James Wood | 4¢ | 14% | 16% | 20% | 14% | 12% | 18% | 15% | 10% | 6% |
| Juan Soto | 1¢ | 10% | 16% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 6% | 7% | 10% | 12% |
| Kyle Schwarber | 1¢ | 9% | 6% | 8% | 12% | 22% | 3% | 9% | 10% | 2% |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 37¢ | 9% | 13% | 8% | 15% | 3% | 8% | 12% | 8% | 4% |
| Hunter Goodman | 1¢ | 4% | 1.2% | 2% | 2% | 8% | 3% | 4% | 1.5% | 8% |
| Paul Skenes | 1¢ | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2% |
| Francisco Lindor | 1¢ | 2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2% | 10% | 1.0% | 2% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Freddie Freeman | 1¢ | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Matt Olson | 1¢ | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2% | 1.0% | 2% | 1.5% | 3% | 2% | 0.5% |
| Elly De La Cruz | 1¢ | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2% | 1.0% | 2% | 3% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Rafael Devers | 1¢ | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Walker | 1¢ | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 3% | 0.4% | 2% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Manny Machado | 1¢ | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Bryce Harper | 1¢ | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 2% | 0.5% |
| Kyle Tucker | 1¢ | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 2% | 3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Michael Harris II | 1¢ | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 3% |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 1¢ | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Corbin Carroll | 1¢ | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Jackson Merrill | 1¢ | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 1¢ | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Mookie Betts | 1¢ | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 1¢ | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Ketel Marte | 1¢ | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Jackson Chourio | 1¢ | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| …plus 28 more names, all under 2% blended — every name was scored; the table shows the top of the field |
Model estimates generated July 27, 2026, price-blind. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
Related Verdicts
FAQ
Why do the model percentages differ from the Kalshi price?
The models never see the price. When they disagree with the crowd, one side is wrong, and we grade every verdict against real settlements on our scoreboard.
Why do the blend percentages sum past 100% on an exclusive award?
Each model scores every candidate independently, so small overshoots accumulate across a large field. The relative order and the gaps matter more than the raw sum; the scoreboard grades each contract on its own settlement.
Are model verdicts betting advice?
No. Model verdicts are model estimates, not betting or financial advice. Treat them as one input among many and make your own decisions.
What data did the models see?
Each model saw the live NL hitting leaderboards (home runs, average, OPS, RBI) fetched from MLB StatsAPI at generation time, with a note that two-way seasons carry extra weight and that absence from every table is real information.
