Pirates vs Dodgers Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Sat 7:15 PM ET. On the mound: Jared Jones (Pirates) vs Tarik Skubal (Dodgers). Moneyline: Pirates +223 (OnyxOdds) at Dodgers -235 (Betcris) — best prices across 8 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Shohei Ohtani at +277 headlines the Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy (OAK) | +250 | Rebet | 28.6% | 1 |
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | +277 | NoVig | 26.5% | 37 |
| Andy Pages (LAD) | +330 | PointsBet | 23.3% | 1 |
| Max Muncy (LAD) | +381 | Polymarket 🎁 | 20.8% | 33 |
| Mookie Betts (LAD) | +495 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 16.8% | 38 |
| Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) | +519 | ProphetX | 16.2% | 34 |
| Freddie Freeman (LAD) | +519 | ProphetX | 16.2% | 37 |
| Teoscar Hernández (LAD) | +525 | BetRivers 🎁 | 16.0% | 34 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 22, 2026 · 01:11 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium: park index 117.7 · wind 4 mph.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 53% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +277 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +240 · Polymarket +257 · ProphetX +265 · NoVig +277
- Max Muncy (LAD) — punishes four-seam fastballs 16% of the time, and that is 53% of what this starter throws · 38% of his damage flies pull-side. (model confidence B)
- books: best +381 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +381 · NoVig +355
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +590 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +578 · NoVig +590
- Oneil Cruz (PIT) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +573 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +568 · NoVig +567
- Teoscar Hernández (LAD) — on the bat alone — homers every 22 PA against righties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence B)
- books: best +525 at BetRivers | exchanges: ProphetX +485 · NoVig +488
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at HardRock | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +500 · NoVig +488
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) — homers every 36 PA against lefties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +637 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · NoVig +567
- Kyle Tucker (LAD) — 30% of his damage flies pull-side · homers every 30 PA against righties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +650 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · NoVig +590
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Rebel Mickie on Tails likes Tarik Skubal Under 8.5 Total Strikeouts (-130). Bet now
- DFSnDonuts Picks on Tails (#2 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Tarik Skubal Under 8.5 Total Strikeouts (-120). Bet now → DraftKings
- OddsShopper PRO on Tails likes these plays:
- JediModi on Tails likes Max Muncy Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+345).
- Nothin' But Dingers on Tails likes Max Muncy Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+608).
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes these plays:
- MisterMarkot on Tails (#9 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes these plays:
- KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS on Tails likes Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-230). Bet now
- FOTP on Tails (#8 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Los Angeles Dodgers -0.5 Run Line 1st5 (-160). Bet now
- EMac on Tails likes Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Run Line (-104). Bet now → FanDuel
- The Bet Baba on Tails likes Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+287). Bet now → DraftKings
- Bank of Dennis on Tails likes Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (+217). Bet now
More from these experts on Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers. DFSnDonuts Picks, FOTP, JediModi, KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS, MisterMarkot, Rebel Mickie, The Bet Baba post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
