Quick Answer
Four of the 18 first-inning sides on Thursday's nine-game MLB board price past fair, and the one that matters is Yankees-Orioles NRFI -110 against a true -118, a 3.3% edge built on Kyle Bradish's 10 straight clean firsts and an 18-game Yankees first-inning drought. The loudest runs story, deGrom at Globe Life, is already priced in. The full board, with every starter's clean-first count, is below.
Prices pulled 8:47 a.m. ET; first pitch from 12:40 p.m. ET.
By Sam Smith
Thursday's board is nine games, and it leans quiet. Three storylines carry it: Kyle Bradish hasn't allowed a first-inning run since June 11, the Yankees haven't scored one since July 29, and Jacob deGrom keeps giving up first-inning runs in baseball's second-loudest park. Only one of the three has meaningful room at the price. Quiet side first, then the runs side, then the full board.
Bradish Has Not Allowed A First-Inning Run Since June 11
Yankees At Orioles (6:35 PM ET): Cole Vs. Bradish, NRFI -110
Bradish has a clean first in 10 of his last 10 starts. Gerrit Cole has eight clean firsts in his last 10, including seven straight, his last first-inning run on July 3. Then the lineups: the Yankees have gone 18 straight games without a first-inning run, and their opponents scored in the first in only four of those 18. Camden Yards runs at a 34% park YRFI rate, lowest of all 30 venues against a 50% league baseline, and the Orioles' 45% team rate is fourth-quietest.
The part I keep coming back to: OddsShopper's no-vig pricing makes this a true -118, and the best book still has it at -110. The YRFI side at +122 even clears its true +118 at a different book, which tells you how far apart the shops are on this first inning. NRFI -110 is the bigger edge and the one this board leans on.
The trend read: every first-inning input points the same way, and the price hasn't finished moving.
Guardians Games Have The Second-Quietest First Innings In Baseball
Giants At Guardians (1:10 PM ET): Roupp Vs. Williams, NRFI -130
Gavin Williams has a clean first in nine of his last 10 starts, the lone run on July 28. Landen Roupp is on seven straight, his last first-inning run June 30. Behind them, Guardians games produce a first-inning run 42% of the time, second-quietest in baseball; Giants games sit at 46%, seventh-quietest; Progressive Field runs at 44%. Four inputs pointing the same way, and the market already got there: -130 against a true -130 is a number to monitor, not force.
The trend read: the quietest matchup on the card, priced exactly like it. A shop, not an edge.
deGrom Has Allowed A First-Inning Run In 4 Of His Last 10 Starts
Nationals At Rangers (8:05 PM ET): Alvarez Vs. deGrom, YRFI +112
deGrom has allowed a first-inning run in four of his last 10 starts, 10 runs in those frames, five of them on June 19. Rangers games have produced a first-inning run 61% of the time, second-highest in the league, and Globe Life's 66% trails only Coors. The tension is Andrew Alvarez, clean in the first in all 10 of his starts. It's the mirror image of Baltimore: there, every input lined up; here, one clean starter fights a loud game environment and a louder park, and the true +114 says Texas is already built in. At true +114 I need +114 or better to buy the YRFI; +112 is two cents short.
The trend read: the runs story is real and fully priced; +112 against +114 is a pass.
Blue Jays-Rays NRFI -115 (true -115) rounds out the quiet sides priced flat. Wednesday's edition had eight sides past fair and its three biggest were all runs-side; Thursday has four, and the only meaningful one is quiet. Same market, different shape in 24 hours, which is the whole case for reading the board before the pitcher.
New here? Our NRFI betting explainer covers how these prices get built, and how to remove the vig shows where the true odds come from.
Run the card yourself: the first-inning Odds Screen shops every NRFI/YRFI number across 100-plus books, the full live odds screen does the same for game lines across every major book, and OS Pro's no-vig pricing prints the true line beside each so you can find the sides that beat fair. Holding a free bet from a signup offer? The free bet converter turns it into cash value. Use code NRFI for 20% off your first month of OS Pro.
Thursday's Full First-Inning Board
| Game (ET) | NRFI / YRFI | Away SP (clean 1st, L10) | Home SP (clean 1st, L10) | Team YRFI (Away / Home) | Park YRFI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals At Reds (12:40) | -106 / -103 | Michael McGreevy (7/10) | Brady Singer (9/10) | 45% / 50% | Great American 45% |
| Blue Jays At Rays (1:10) | -115 / +110 | Shane Bieber (6/10) | Ian Seymour (8/10) | 48% / 48% | Tropicana 49% |
| Giants At Guardians (1:10) | -130 / +129 | Landen Roupp (8/10) | Gavin Williams (9/10) | 46% / 42% | Progressive 44% |
| Braves At White Sox (2:10) | -104 / -101 | Grant Holmes (9/10) | Anthony Kay (8/10) | 50% / 56% | Rate Field 53% |
| Athletics At Royals (2:10) | -111 / +106 | Gage Jump (7/10) | Randy Dobnak (5/6*) | 54% / 50% | Kauffman 53% |
| Mariners At Brewers (2:10) | -115 / +105 | George Kirby (7/10) | Robert Gasser (6/10) | 53% / 47% | Am Fam 52% |
| Yankees At Orioles (6:35) | -110 / +122 | Gerrit Cole (8/10) | Kyle Bradish (10/10) | 50% / 45% | Camden Yards 34% |
| Nationals At Rangers (8:05) | -120 / +112 | Andrew Alvarez (10/10) | Jacob deGrom (6/10) | 52% / 61% | Globe Life 66% |
| Angels At Astros (8:10) | -104 / -105 | Grayson Rodriguez (6/10) | Peter Lambert (8/10) | 51% / 57% | Daikin 53% |
*Fewer than 10 starts this season (small sample).
Rate stats: a clean first is a start with no first-inning run allowed; team and park YRFI rates are the share of games with a first-inning run by either side (~50% league average). Trends describe what has happened; prices move by first pitch. Board analysis, not a wager directive. 21+, legal states only.
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FAQ
What are the best NRFI picks today, Thursday, August 20? Yankees-Orioles NRFI at -110. Three inputs line up: Kyle Bradish's 10 straight clean firsts, Gerrit Cole's seven, and an 18-game Yankees first-inning drought at the league's quietest park, and the best book still sits eight cents better than the true -118. Giants-Guardians NRFI -130 and Blue Jays-Rays NRFI -115 sit at fair: reads to shop, not chase.
Why did the best edge move from the runs side to the quiet side overnight? Wednesday's biggest edges were all YRFI because the books under-priced runs in three specific parks; Thursday's board is quieter on paper (the second- and fourth-quietest teams and the lowest-YRFI park are all on it) and the books priced that in everywhere except Baltimore. Edges live in the disagreement between books, not in the storyline.
Where can I shop first-inning odds? The OddsShopper first-inning Odds Screen lists NRFI/YRFI prices across 100-plus books, and OS Pro's no-vig pricing shows the "true" line next to each so you can find the best number.
