Braves vs White Sox Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Thu 2:10 PM ET. On the mound: Grant Holmes (Braves) vs Anthony Kay (White Sox). Moneyline: Braves -108 (FanDuel) at White Sox +101 (Caesars) — best prices across 8 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Munetaka Murakami at +325 headlines the Atlanta Braves @ Chicago White Sox home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami (CHW) | +325 | Bet365 | 23.5% | 31 |
| Colson Montgomery (CHW) | +402 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 19.9% | 31 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | +436 | ProphetX | 18.7% | 31 |
| Miguel Vargas (CHW) | +450 | Bet365 | 18.2% | 31 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) | +460 | Unibet | 17.9% | 32 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | +534 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 15.8% | 31 |
| Drake Baldwin (ATL) | +598 | ProphetX | 14.3% | 31 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | +625 | Kalshi | 13.8% | 30 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 20, 2026 · 01:00 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Rate Field: park index 102.9 · wind 10 mph.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — 21% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · homers every 13 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +304 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +304
- Matt Olson (ATL) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 44% of what this starter throws · 25% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +350 at Caesars
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) — punishes sliders, and that is 31% of what this starter throws · 31% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · homers every 15 PA against righties. (model confidence A)
- books: best +397 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +397 · NoVig +388
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 44% of what this starter throws · 14% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +500 at HardRock
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) — punishes sliders, and that is 30% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +456 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · ProphetX +456
- Andrew Benintendi (CWS) — 32% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind. (model confidence A)
- books: best +625 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +625
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 33% of what this starter throws. (model confidence A)
- books: best +350 at HardRock
- Austin Riley (ATL) — on the bat alone — homers every 34 PA against lefties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence A)
- books: best +506 at NoVig | exchanges: NoVig +506
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- BGrebbs on Tails likes Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+450).
- SEvansBets on Tails likes Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120). Bet now
- Bank of Dennis on Tails (#7 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Chicago White Sox Moneyline (+102). Bet now
- JediModi on Tails (#9 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+325). Bet now → Bet365
- MisterMarkot on Tails (#6 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-108). Bet now
- The Bet Baba on Tails likes Chicago White Sox Moneyline (+101). Bet now → DraftKings
More from these experts on Atlanta Braves @ Chicago White Sox. BGrebbs, JediModi, MisterMarkot, SEvansBets, The Bet Baba post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros · New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians · Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers · St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds · Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays · Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
