Yankees vs Orioles Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Thu 6:35 PM ET. On the mound: Gerrit Cole (Yankees) vs Kyle Bradish (Orioles). Moneyline: Yankees -115 (HardRock) at Orioles +110 (Caesars) — best prices across 11 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Pete Alonso at +381 headlines the New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (BAL) | +381 | Polymarket 🎁 | 20.8% | 33 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | +435 | Circa | 18.7% | 32 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BAL) | +450 | TheScore | 18.2% | 23 |
| Trent Grisham (NYY) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 32 |
| Luis Garcia Jr. (NYY) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 33 |
| Samuel Basallo (BAL) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 31 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | +573 | Kalshi | 14.9% | 33 |
| Coby Mayo (BAL) | +575 | Underdog 🎁 | 14.8% | 14 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 20, 2026 · 01:00 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Oriole Park at Camden Yards: park index 119.2 · wind 13 mph.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 35% of what this starter throws · 26% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +434 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +353
- Pete Alonso (BAL) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 61% of what this starter throws · homers every 18 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips — but hitting into a 6 mph wind. (model confidence C)
- books: best +381 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +351 · Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +358 · NoVig +355
- Trent Grisham (NYY) — 27% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · homers every 19 PA against righties · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +500 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +461
- Samuel Basallo (BAL) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 49% of what this starter throws · 24% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · homers every 18 PA against righties. (model confidence C)
- books: best +480 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +480
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 35% of what this starter throws · 24% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · homers every 22 PA against righties. (model confidence C)
- books: best +500 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +500
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 35% of what this starter throws · 28% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · homers every 18 PA against righties. (model confidence C)
- books: best +525 at Bet365
- Spencer Jones (NYY) — 28% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind. (model confidence C)
- books: best +733 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +676 · NoVig +733
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — 25% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · homers every 30 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +545 at NoVig | exchanges: NoVig +545
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes these plays:
- Nothin' But Dingers on Tails likes Coby Mayo Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+550). Bet now → Bet365
- Stacks Covers on Tails likes Over 9 Total Runs (-110).
- MoneyBall Metrics on Tails likes Baltimore Orioles Over 5 Total Runs 5I (-120).
- JediModi on Tails (#9 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Trent Grisham Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+380). Bet now → BetRivers
More from these experts on New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles. JediModi posts full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago White Sox · Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians · Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers · St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds · Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays · Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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