Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers home run picks: this board was built for the Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers game on August 20, 2026, which has been played, so the prices below are that day's record and not tonight's. As of September 4, 2026, tonight's best home run prices across 20-plus sportsbooks are on the live MLB home run odds screen, and the daily board is on MLB home run picks today.
Mariners vs Brewers Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Thu 2:10 PM ET. On the mound: George Kirby (Mariners) vs Robert Gasser (Brewers). Moneyline: Mariners +115 (Caesars) at Brewers -120 (HardRock) — best prices across 9 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Cal Raleigh at +456 headlines the Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | +456 | Kalshi | 18.0% | 3 |
| Julio Rodríguez (SEA) | +490 | Kalshi | 16.9% | 24 |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | +525 | Bet365 | 16.0% | 32 |
| Gary Sánchez (MIL) | +540 | FanDuel 🎁 | 15.6% | 24 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 31 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | +550 | Bet365 | 15.4% | 33 |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | +590 | NoVig | 14.5% | 33 |
| Andrew Vaughn (MIL) | +614 | NoVig | 14.0% | 1 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 20, 2026 · 01:00 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at American Family Field: park index 83.0 · wind 8 mph.
- Jake Bauers (MIL) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +525 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · NoVig +426
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 53% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +573 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +568
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 32% of what this starter throws · homers every 20 PA against lefties — but hitting into a 8 mph wind. (model confidence A)
- books: best +465 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · NoVig +456
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — punishes sliders, and that is 33% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time — but hitting into a 8 mph wind. (model confidence A)
- books: best +500 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +490
- Gary Sánchez (MIL) — 34% of his damage flies pull-side · homers every 19 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time — but hitting into a 8 mph wind. (model confidence B)
- books: best +540 at FanDuel | exchanges: ProphetX +495
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time — but hitting into a 8 mph wind. (model confidence A)
- books: best +550 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +500
- Christian Yelich (MIL) — homers every 24 PA against righties. (model confidence A)
- books: best +800 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +735 · NoVig +669
- Brice Turang (MIL) — homers every 26 PA against righties · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +637 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +637
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- MoneyBall Metrics on Tails likes Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-124). Bet now
- Ziny Bets on Tails likes Robert Gasser Over 17.5 Total Pitching Outs (-104). Bet now
- Nothin' But Dingers on Tails likes Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+850). Bet now → Bet365
- Rebel Mickie on Tails likes Dustin May Over 1.5 Total Earned Runs (-140). Bet now
More from these experts on Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers. Rebel Mickie posts full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago White Sox · Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros · New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians · St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds · Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays · Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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