Lindy's MLB picks for Thursday, August 20 come with a disclaimer up front: he opened the show saying he wasn't going to force plays just to have plays, and a nine-game card he flat-out said he wasn't in love with backed that up. The result is his shortest card in weeks, just three official plays: the Cleveland Guardians (CLE) on the run line against the San Francisco Giants, an Anthony Kay (CWS) strikeout prop he backed at plus money, and the one he called his favorite play of the entire day, the Texas Rangers (TEX) on the run line against the Washington Nationals. He's also sitting on a handful of bigger leans he still hasn't fired, from a Cardinals-Reds total to a Kansas City money line, proof that restraint, not volume, is the actual thread running through tonight's card.
Anthony Kay — one of the featured players on today's card.
The Quick Answer
Lindy's card for Thursday, August 20 comes down to three official plays on a light nine-game card: the Cleveland Guardians (CLE) on the run line (-1.5) against the San Francisco Giants, an Anthony Kay (CWS) strikeout prop at +125 against the Atlanta Braves, and his favorite play of the entire day, the Texas Rangers (TEX) on the run line against the Washington Nationals. He talked through several bigger leans he hasn't deployed yet, including a Cardinals-Reds total and a Kansas City money line. The full breakdown of all three plays, plus every lean he's still just watching, is below.
Watch The Video
Lindy built this card on the OddsShopper channel, working through the day's matchups start to finish.
The Plays At A Glance
- Cleveland Guardians (CLE) on the run line, -1.5, against the San Francisco Giants and Landen Roupp
- Anthony Kay (CWS) over his strikeout number, at +125, against the Atlanta Braves and Grant Holmes
- Texas Rangers (TEX) on the run line, Lindy's favorite play of the entire day, against the Washington Nationals and Jacob deGrom
He also talked through several bigger spots he passed on: a Cardinals-Reds total, a moneyline lean on the Kansas City Royals, a Yankees-Orioles total he called an inflated number, and a Yordan Alvarez (HOU) two-home-run prop he talked himself out of. Those stay leans, not plays. This recap only credits him with what he actually fired.
Cleveland's Run Line Is "The Deployment Direction"
The first official play of the night comes out of a game Lindy says he'd rather attack from the team side than the pitcher prop side. Underdog opened Gavin Williams (CLE) at -115 on 6.5 strikeouts, and outside of one rough final start, 91 pitches against a San Diego lineup Lindy called "absolutely insane at the plate," Williams has been dealing: a 38% strikeout rate across his previous five outings before that game. Rather than chase the strikeout number, Lindy pivots to the run line, pointing at Landen Roupp (SF) as a pitcher he expects to give up a bit more power going forward and a Guardians lineup that gets Jo Adell (CLE) back after a maintenance day off. He's still willing to go back to the well on Cleveland after a split run-line week with the Guardians. "I'm going to fire up some Cleveland minus one and a half instead. I think that's the deployment direction here." Cleveland Guardians (CLE) on the run line, -1.5, against the Giants.
Anthony Kay Is The Only Prop On The Card
From a team total to the lone player prop on the entire card: Anthony Kay (CWS) drawing the strikeout play against Grant Holmes (ATL) and the Atlanta Braves. Lindy calls Holmes a pitcher who's "giving up a lot of pop," but the case here is built on the other side of the mound. Kay has gotten "sneaky effective," in Lindy's words, continuing to improve against right-handed hitters as the season has gone on, and Atlanta is loading this lineup with lefties, Drake Baldwin (ATL), Michael Harris II (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL) among them, that Lindy expects to spike Kay's strikeout rate. "I think that's pretty interesting at plus 125. That's why I bet it." Anthony Kay (CWS) over his strikeout number, at +125.
Texas Rangers Are The Favorite Play Of The Entire Day
The last of the three plays is the one Lindy called flat out, his favorite of the entire day: the Texas Rangers (TEX) on the run line against the Washington Nationals and Jacob deGrom. On raw ERA, Washington's Andrew Alvarez (WSH) actually looks better than deGrom, 3.72 to 3.95, and the Nationals did just get a three-for-four, home-run night out of Andrés Chaparro (WSH). But Lindy is looking past both surface numbers: he says deGrom has been far better at avoiding hard, damaging contact than Alvarez has, and Washington is missing James Wood (WSH) from its lineup, which he thinks leaves them far less equipped to deal with a pitcher of deGrom's caliber. "Why wouldn't we want to go and look at the National side? Well, because underlying metrics mean everything," he said, before landing on Texas. "I think you want to be interested, and not just interested but invested, in the Texas success here... I'm looking at that run line all day." Texas Rangers (TEX) on the run line against Washington.
| The Play | The market | The number |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians (CLE) | Run line | -1.5 |
| Anthony Kay (CWS) | Over his strikeout number | +125 |
| Texas Rangers (TEX) | Run line | No price given, called his favorite play of the day |
The Rangers line is the one row on that table with no attached price in Lindy's read tonight, and that's the point: the conviction, not a number, is the story. He landed on it more emphatically than either of the other two plays, calling it out by name as the single best thing on his card before he'd even worked through the rest of the card.
What Lindy Passed On
Not every spot Lindy dug into made the three-play card. The Cardinals-Reds series, Michael McGreevy (STL) against Brady Singer (CIN), has been "very, very flat" all series, and he has a small lean toward the under at 9 (-105). But he expects "a little bit of something something from the Cardinal side," whether that's a long shot from Bryan Torres (STL) or JJ Wetherholt (STL) getting closer to the plate, so he's ultimately "looking at props or pass" rather than firing the total. He also looked at Shane Bieber (TOR) against Ian Seymour (TB), where Bieber is carrying the highest home run rate on the entire card, 1.85 homers per nine, against a Tampa Bay lineup he isn't in love with the opening numbers on. He has a small lean on that run line at plus 130, but "probably going to end up being a pass overall in this one," pointing to props as the better angle in that game instead. He also worked through Gerrit Cole (NYY) against Kyle Bradish (BAL), where Bradish's under at plus 104 is, in his words, "a very inflated number," 5.5 runs allowed against a Yankees lineup that strikes out more against lefties than righties, but rain in the forecast (a 60% precipitation chance around first pitch) kept him on the sideline rather than firing it. Over at Kaufman, with Gage Jump (ATH) getting pulled from his scheduled start, Lindy has a moneyline lean on the Kansas City Royals, pointing at a deep lineup, Vinnie Pasquantino (KC), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Jac Caglianone (KC), and Tyler Tolbert (KC), that doesn't strike out at a high clip, but it's "more than likely going to be Kansas City or pass" rather than an official play. He's also toying with a Randy Arozarena (SEA) home run prop at -115 on Underdog out of the Mariners-Brewers game (George Kirby (SEA) against Robert Gasser (MIL)), calling it "an interesting Gavin Williams pairing" he "might end up" playing, but hasn't committed. And he talked himself all the way up to a Yordan Alvarez (HOU) two-home-run prop at plus 210 on FanDuel out of the Angels-Astros game, Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) against Peter Lambert (HOU), calling the number a price that "should technically be closer to plus 1500," and still landed on a pass rather than break his own rule against playing multi-homer props. None of those count as plays in this recap, only as spots he's still watching.
Also Grinding The Board: Today's +EV Hits
Lindy's card leans on a run line and a single strikeout prop, but OddsShopper's own +EV screen flagged real value sitting in the exact same games already on his card, mostly on hitters priced to go hitless. Every number below is live off the board.
| Player | Market | Best price | Fair implied odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Antonacci (CWS) | Under 0.5 Hits | +175 (Fanatics) | +153 fair |
| Pete Alonso (BAL) | Under 0.5 Hits | +200 (Bet365) | +187 fair |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | Under 0.5 Hits | +160 (Bet365) | +150 fair |
| Andrew Benintendi (CWS) | Over 0.5 Hits | -135 (Bet365) | -145 fair |
| Jackson Holliday (BAL) | Under 0.5 Hits | +145 (Fanatics) | +138 fair |
| Drew Romo (CWS) | Under 0.5 Hits | -105 (Fanatics) | -111 fair |
| Tristan Peters (CWS) | Under 0.5 Hits | +120 (Fanatics) | +115 fair |
| Sal Stewart (CIN) | Under 0.5 Hits | +210 (Fanatics) | +203 fair |
| Chase Meidroth (CWS) | Under 0.5 Hits | +145 (Fanatics) | +140 fair |
| Ivan Herrera (STL) | Under 0.5 Hits | +200 (Fanatics) | +194 fair |
| Lane Thomas (ATL) | Under 0.5 Hits | +130 (Fanatics) | +125 fair |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | Under 0.5 Hits | +140 (Fanatics) | +136 fair |
That board isn't scattered across the card, it clusters almost entirely inside three games Lindy already had open tonight. The Braves-White Sox game carrying his Anthony Kay play alone accounts for eight of the 12 names, Matt Olson, Lane Thomas, and Austin Riley on Atlanta's side, Andrew Benintendi, Drew Romo, Tristan Peters, Sam Antonacci, and Chase Meidroth on Chicago's. The Cardinals-Reds total he's leaning toward a pass on adds Ivan Herrera and Sal Stewart, and the Yankees-Orioles total he's watching for rain adds Pete Alonso and Jackson Holliday. That's the same shopping process behind everything on this page, just running on the other side of the board: check every book, de-vig it to a fair price, and only take the gap that's actually there. Our MLB hits props breakdown tracks these same kinds of gaps across the rest of tonight's board, and FanDuel's current offer — how to claim it is worth checking before you shop tonight's card, since it's the book carrying the Yordan Alvarez price Lindy flagged and passed on.
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OddsShopper takes the number-hunting off your plate. It checks every book at once, de-vigs the market to a fair price, and surfaces the bets where the price is better than the real chance of it happening, the exact process behind Lindy's Anthony Kay prop tonight and the hits board above. For the mechanics behind why that gap exists in the first place, how sportsbooks make money walks through the vig in plain language, and our MLB home run props board covers the power side of tonight's card in more depth.
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