Most next-team boards are a scatter of live prices across a dozen teams that all think they have a real shot. Trey Murphy III's is the opposite: one contract sits near a dollar and the other 29 are pinned to the floor. Murphy is signed through 2028-29, the Pelicans have spent the whole summer telling the league he is not for sale, and the two windows that could have moved him, the February trade deadline and the June draft, both closed with him still in New Orleans. So the interesting question is not where he lands. It is whether a market that looks this settled is actually pricing the small chance that it is wrong, and whether a set of AI models that never saw the price would read the same board the same way. We ran it. They did, almost exactly, and the one place they part from the crowd is a team the market has left for dead.
New to Kalshi event markets? Start here → how Kalshi's yes/no contracts work.
The Quick Answer
As of August 25, 2026, Kalshi's last trade on the "Stays with New Orleans or Retires" contract sits at 91 cents, with live quotes at 88 bid and 89 ask, up from 85 cents at this page's first read on August 20, while every other outcome on Trey Murphy III's next-team board asks 3 cents or less. Our price-blind AI panel scored the full 30-team field without seeing a single price and blended the no-move outcome to about 84%; the crowd matched it almost exactly on August 20 and has since pushed several points past it. The one real disagreement is small and specific: the models make the Golden State Warriors the clear leader of the field at about 3.4%, against a market that has the Warriors at a penny.
- Market Favorite: Stays in New Orleans, 91¢ last trade, 88 bid / 89 ask live (raw prices; the full board carries a heavy overround, covered below)
- Model Favorite: the same side, ~84% blend — now roughly seven points below a crowd that has since firmed past it
- Where The Models Split From The Price: they lift Golden State to ~3.4% and Detroit to ~2.2% against penny-floor prices
- A Call Already Graded: the panel flagged the crowd's 6-cent Boston print as stale on August 20; five days later it has collapsed to a penny
- The Key Wrinkle Most Readers Miss: this market only pays a non-New-Orleans team if a trade is completed before October 21, 2026; a deal during next season would not count
- The Panel's Logic In One Line: a scoring leader locked in through 2029, on a team publicly rejecting every offer, with camps weeks away, is a no-move outcome first and a trade board second.
What moved this week, honestly told. After the August 20 read at 85 cents, the stays contract dipped as low as 71 cents across August 21 and 22 on roughly 840 traded contracts, recovered to the low 80s on August 23, then printed 91 on August 24 in the heaviest session since this page first ran, more than 2,300 contracts. We looked for a news trigger behind that swing and found none: no trade, no reported offer that meets the Pelicans' ask, no public commitment, no fresh insider reporting. Nothing new is on the record. What has changed is the input this page already called the board's biggest driver — the calendar. Every quiet day is one fewer day in which a months-long "no" has to become a "yes," and the market is pricing that drift.
The contract that keeps him, the narrow window that is closing, the full 30-outcome board, the Warriors edge, the dark horses, and a plain-English guide to reading these prices are all below.
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The Contract That Anchors The Board
Start with the fact that shapes everything else: Murphy is not a free agent. He is signed through the 2028-29 season on a four-year, roughly $112 million rookie-scale extension he agreed to in October 2024. That single detail is why this board looks nothing like a free-agency scramble. A team that wants Murphy cannot simply outbid the field for his signature; it has to send New Orleans enough to pry loose a 26-year-old coming off the best season of his career. He led the Pelicans in scoring at 21.5 points per game in 2025-26, the rare bright spot on a team that missed the playoffs, and a player like that on a long, movable contract is an asset a rebuilding front office keeps unless it is overwhelmed.
New Orleans has said as much, repeatedly. Reporting through the summer has the Pelicans rejecting all offers and prioritizing 2026-27 contention; The Athletic's John Hollinger wrote the trade chatter "has lessened but hasn't vanished," and NBA insider Jake Fischer said he is "working with the belief that the Pelicans want to keep Trey Murphy." The team has dropped its asking price from four first-round picks to three plus a young player, but says it will only move him if it is "blown away." That is the posture of a team fielding calls to be polite, not a team shopping a player.
The Window Almost No One Prices Correctly
Here is the wrinkle that separates this board from a normal trade rumor. The market resolves to whichever team Murphy is officially on before October 21, 2026, the eve of the season opener. If he is still a Pelican on that date, the "Stays with New Orleans or Retires" contract pays, full stop. And a trade after that date, in-season, does not resolve any of these contracts YES.
That collapses the real trade window to a sliver. The February 2026 deadline passed with no deal. The June 2026 draft, the offseason's other natural trade trigger, passed with no deal. It is now late August. NBA training camps open at the end of September. So for any team other than New Orleans to cash, a front office that has spent months saying no has to say yes in the next few weeks, at a price it has repeatedly called too low. The panel treated that shrinking calendar as its single biggest driver, and it is the reason the models are, if anything, more confident in the no-move outcome than a naive read of the board.
What A Cent Means Here
On Kalshi, a price in cents is roughly a probability in percent: a 91-cent contract implies the market thinks that outcome is about 91% likely, minus the exchange's spread and overround. The board below carries a large overround, so the raw cents add up to well more than 100; the section on reading these prices works the de-vig math in full. For now, read the cents as direction and rough size, not exact odds.
The Full Board: Kalshi Price Vs. Five Models
Here is the short version first, then every model's raw number.
The Board
| Outcome | Why it sits here | Market | Model blend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stays With New Orleans Or Retires | Signed through 2028-29; team publicly rejecting all offers; two trade windows already closed | 91¢ | 84.2% |
| Golden State | The most persistent reported suitor; reportedly offered two first-round picks | ~1¢ | 3.4% |
| Detroit | Reported interest at a bargain price; roster need on the wing | ~1¢ | 2.2% |
| Boston | Extra draft capital to spend; its stale 6¢ print has washed out | ~1¢ | 2.2% |
| Atlanta | Has monitored the market with picks and contracts to dangle | ~1¢ | 1.5% |
| LA Clippers | Named as a possible suitor; a stale 3¢ last print over a 0-bid, 1-ask book | ~1¢ | 1.5% |
| Rest Of Field (24 Teams) | Mostly penny-floor lasts, plus a few stale 2-3¢ prints | ~32¢ Combined | ~5.0% |
These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
Every Seat's Number
| Outcome | Market | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | GLM | DeepSeek | Blend | Gap (blend% − mkt¢) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stays / New Orleans | 91¢ | 83.9 | 81.7 | 84.3 | 86.7 | 84.4 | 84.2% | −7 |
| Golden State | ~1¢ | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.4% | +2 |
| Detroit | ~1¢ | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.2% | +1 |
| Boston | ~1¢ | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.2% | +1 |
| Atlanta | ~1¢ | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5% | +1 |
| LA Clippers | ~1¢ | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5% | +1 |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: Claude Fable 84% on 508 graded calls · Claude Opus 85% on 578 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 84% on 556 graded calls · GLM 81% on 2,367 graded calls · DeepSeek 80% on 2,392 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. The Blend column is the mean of each model's full-precision estimate; the per-model figures shown are rounded, so a displayed row can average a tenth of a point off the blend. The last column is a quick directional gap, the blend percentage minus the raw market price in cents; read it as direction and size, not a precise edge, because the raw board carries a large overround. Five of the panel's eight seats scored this board.
More live boards from the same panel: Kawhi Leonard next team (Toronto ~90¢, the agreed-trade saga) · Jonathan Kuminga next team (Lakers ~59¢ vs Minnesota ~32¢, a truly split board) · Steph Curry next team (Stays with Golden State ~96¢). Prices fetched August 20, 2026.
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Golden State: The One Team The Panel Lifts Off The Floor
Every model made the Warriors the leader of the field, at right around 3 to 3.5%, against a market that prices them at a penny. That is not a random pick. Golden State has been the most persistent name in Murphy's market since the trade deadline, and reporting has the Warriors putting an actual offer on the table, two first-round picks, which New Orleans turned down as short of its ask. To the panel, a team that has already made a concrete bid is categorically different from the two dozen teams that have said nothing.
Golden State has shown the most sustained, concrete interest of any suitor and already tabled a two-first-round-pick offer, so it deserves clear separation from a penny-floor field even though a completed deal remains unlikely. — Claude Opus
The number is still small, because the same facts that keep the whole board tilted toward New Orleans apply here too: the Pelicans said no, the price gap is real, and the window is nearly shut. But the models' point is that "a suitor who has already bid and been rejected" is a live longshot, not a dead one, and the market's 1-cent line does not distinguish the Warriors from the Hornets. It is the board's clearest example of information the crowd has flattened into the floor.
Boston: A Stale-Print Call, Already Graded
When this page first ran on August 20, the one place the panel sat below the market was Boston, which showed a 6-cent last trade while the models blended it to about 2.2%. The panel's read was that the 6 cents was a stale print, a leftover trade sitting well above the 1-bid, 3-ask live quotes underneath it, not the field's real second choice. Five days later the market agreed: the Celtics contract now shows a 1-cent last trade on a 1-bid, 2-ask book, right in line with the rest of the reported-interest names. That is the fastest kind of grade this lane gets, and it is worth keeping as a lesson in miniature. When a next-team board shows a mid-single-digit price with penny-wide real quotes underneath it, that is usually a leftover, not a signal — and on this board, the same pattern now lives on the Clippers row, where a 3-cent last print sits over a 0-bid, 1-ask book.
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
Every model read the other four's anonymized reasoning and then revised. The revision round is where this board tightened from a loose agreement into a firm one. In the first pass the seats ranged from 77% to 88% on the no-move outcome, an 11-point spread; after the exchange they landed between 82% and 87%, a 5-point spread. Two arcs did the work.
Murphy is locked through 2028-29 and New Orleans has publicly rejected every offer, leaving a razor-thin pre-camp window for any completed trade. — Claude Sonnet (revised its no-move estimate up from 77% to 84% after the others stressed how little runway is left before camps)
Murphy is signed through 2028-29, New Orleans is publicly rejecting all offers and prioritizing contention, and both prior trade windows already closed without a move. — Claude Opus (came the other way, trimming from 88% to 82% to give the reported suitors a bit more of the field)
The seat that barely moved was DeepSeek, which held in the mid-80s both rounds and kept Golden State as its field leader throughout, calling the no-move outcome the product of a "long-term contract, narrow post-deadline window, and New Orleans' public refusal to move him without a massive overpay." When the highest and lowest seats both converge toward the middle and a third never leaves it, the agreement is doing real work rather than following the loudest voice.
What Would Change The Panel's Mind
This board is settled only as long as its inputs hold. Four concrete developments would move the number, each in a knowable direction:
- A Completed Trade Before October 21. The obvious one. Any finalized deal instantly resolves the board and moves the relevant team to 100 while New Orleans goes to zero. Watch the Warriors first, since they are the only team reported to have made a real offer.
- A "Blown Away" Package. If a suitor meets the Pelicans' three-firsts-plus-a-young-player ask, the calculus flips fast. New Orleans has set a price, not a wall; the whole no-move case rests on nobody paying it. A team clearing the second apron or freeing a young star to headline an offer is the trigger to watch.
- A Public "We're Keeping Him" From The Front Office Or Murphy Himself. A firm on-record commitment before camp would push the no-move outcome from the mid-80s toward the 90s and drain what little life the field has left.
- A Camp Report Of A Holdout Or Trade Request. The one development that cuts the other way. Nothing has been reported, but a disgruntled star forcing the issue would revive suitors the models currently price near zero, especially the Warriors and Pistons.
Dark Horses The Panel Won't Dismiss
Below the Warriors, a few names carry a small but real number for a specific reason rather than name recognition:
- Detroit blends to about 2.2% against a penny. The Pistons have circled Murphy in trade talks but felt the price was too high; the models keep them alive as a team with both the need and, potentially, the assets if New Orleans blinks.
- Atlanta blends to about 1.5%. The Hawks have quietly monitored the market with future first-round picks and tradeable contracts to dangle, the profile of a team that could jump in late.
- The LA Clippers blend to about 1.5%, on reported interest. Their 3-cent last trade sits above a 0-bid, 1-ask book, the same stale-print pattern Boston showed before its 6-cent leftover drained to the floor, so the panel treats it as a longshot rather than a live suitor and sees no clear path to a package that clears the Pelicans' bar.
None of these is a confident call. They are the panel's way of saying a board this lopsided still has a handful of live longshots, and the crowd has crushed most of them to a single indistinguishable penny.
The Traps: Rows That Look Like Signal But Are Not
Transparency matters more than a clean story, so here is where the table would mislead you:
- A 91-Cent Favorite Is Not A Settled Fact. It is the market's read that a trade is unlikely in a narrow window, not a report that he is staying. And hold it to the same standard as the field: 91 is a last trade printing a couple of cents above the live 88-bid, 89-ask book — a far smaller last-vs-book gap than the stale prints below, over a genuinely liquid two-sided market, but the book is the truer number. Camps have not opened; the summer is not over.
- A 3-Cent Clippers Print Is Not A 3% Chance. The live quotes underneath it are 0 bid, 1 ask. Read the two-sided market, not the last trade, on a thin line; Boston's 6-cent version of this trap washed out to a penny within a week.
- A Penny Price Is Not The Same As Zero. Golden State, Detroit, and Atlanta all trade near the floor on live scenarios; that is exactly where the panel thinks a sliver of value hides.
- The Board Does Not Sum To 100 Cents. The raw prices add to about 130 cents, so the market carries a real overround; do not read the raw cents as clean probabilities without adjusting for it.
How To Read These Prices
The models can tell you where they part from the crowd, but the number in front of you still has to be understood in context.
Work an example. The "Stays" contract shows a 91-cent last trade. Taken at face value that is about a 91% chance. But on a 30-outcome board you get a fairer, spread-free read by normalizing every outcome so the field sums to 100. This board's raw prices add to about 130 cents, so dividing 91 by 130 gives a de-vigged figure closer to 70%. That lower number is the honest floor of the crowd's confidence once you strip the overround, and notably the panel's 84% blend still sits above it, not below. The reason is that most of the overround here lives in the roughly two dozen contracts pinned at a single penny; those are the exchange's minimum tick on teams with no reported interest, not true 0.8% assessments, so a straight de-vig over-taxes the favorite. Always convert a raw cent price into its fair value before comparing anything; that habit is the whole idea behind turning Kalshi's cents into real odds.
A few honest points before reading too much into any number in the table above:
- Eligibility. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, not a sportsbook. You must be 18 or older (18+) and located in an eligible state, and availability varies by state and can change.
- Liquidity And Spread. Only the New Orleans contract carries a truly active, two-sided book; below it, most contracts sit near the penny floor on thin, one-sided marks, so getting in or out at your number is not always possible.
- A Moving Story. This is a live trade market that could resolve any day; Murphy could be dealt before October 21 and settle the market early. The model estimates were generated on August 20, 2026; every Kalshi price on this Murphy board was re-fetched on August 25, 2026, and refreshes during any trade-news wave.
- Not Advice. Everything here is analysis for information, not a recommendation to trade. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Every number in this piece gets graded in public once the market settles, on the full graded Model Verdict scoreboard.
Settlement Timeline
| Settlement Date | October 21, 2026 — Kalshi's listed expected expiration, on the eve of the 2026-27 season; resolves early if he is traded first |
| Late September 2026 | NBA training camps open — the practical close of the trade window that matters for this board |
| At Settlement | If Murphy is still a Pelican on October 21, "Stays with New Orleans or Retires" resolves YES; a trade after that date does not count |
| Re-Score Trigger | This board is re-scored when the story moves: a completed trade, a meets-the-ask offer, or a public commitment. As of August 25, 2026, none has occurred — no news trigger was found for the week's swing; the calendar is the only input that has changed, and the market has moved from 85 to 91 cents. |
More on this: J.J. McCarthy Next Team Odds: The Roster Said Stay, the Market Says 39% Trade · Bennedict Mathurin Next Team Odds · Kyrie Irving Next Team Odds: Everyone Else Left Dallas · Klay Thompson Next Team Odds: He Chose Miami, And The Market Barely Blinked · Jalen Duren Next Team Odds: The Kings Bet Is A Summer Early
The Bottom Line
The market and the models are looking at the same board and reading it the same way — the crowd has just gotten there faster. Kalshi's last trade prices Trey Murphy III to stay in New Orleans at 91 cents, up from 85 five days ago on no new reporting at all; the panel blends the no-move outcome to about 84%, and once you strip the board's overround the crowd's de-vigged confidence, about 70%, still sits below the machines'. This is the rare next-team market where the story is not a disagreement but a shared conclusion compounding daily: a scoring leader locked in through 2029, on a team that has said no all summer, with the calendar nearly out of room. The panel's stale-print call on Boston has already graded out; the only crack of daylight left is Golden State, the one suitor that actually bid, which the panel lifts off the penny floor to the top of a thin field. If this method is your thing, the Kawhi Leonard and Jonathan Kuminga boards are the natural next reads, and every call here will be graded against what actually happens.
Verdicts generated August 20, 2026. Prices refreshed August 25, 2026. Five of the panel's eight seats scored this board, price-blind, after one revision round. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
