The Quick Answer
Susan Collins has been trailing in Maine's Senate race market since April, and on Tuesday a corruption report gave that slide a headline to match. On Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, Democrat Troy Jackson now prices at 72 cents against Collins at 29, the widest that gap has been since the two lines crossed five months ago. ProPublica reported that Navatek CEO Martin Kao routed $150,000 to a Collins-aligned super PAC through a shell company after a 2018 meeting at a Corner Bakery in Washington, D.C. Less than a month after a 2019 Navatek event, a Senate defense budget draft carried $21.5 million for the company's Maine projects. Collins' office calls the allegations "categorically false."
The Numbers
Kalshi's Maine Senate market as of 9:31 a.m. ET, Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2026.
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Troy Jackson (Democrat) To Win The Seat | 72% chance |
| Susan Collins (Republican) To Win The Seat | 29% chance |
| Jackson's Price The Day Before | 68% |
| When The Two Lines Crossed | April 2026 |
| Total Traded In This Market, All Time | $9,147,877 |
The Slide Started In April
The market's price chart runs from December 2024 to now, and the two candidates' lines crossed around April 2026, with a volatile stretch near the crossover before Jackson pulled away. Five months of that trend sit underneath this week's headline, which is the part a one-day move does not show.
Tuesday did move it. Jackson at 72 is up from 68 the day before, and Collins is at 29, down 3 points on the day, with her Yes and No quotes at 30 and 71.
The Kalshi page header says the market "Begins in 40 days" and resolves Nov. 3, 8:00 a.m. EST. What fills those 40 days is the open question: there is no debate scheduled, no campaign finance filing date and no formal proceeding tied to the allegations.
What The Report Says, And What Collins' Office Says Back
The ProPublica investigation, published Sept. 22, 2026, by reporters William Turton, Avi Asher-Schapiro, Molly Redden and Kirsten Berg, is one day old. In it, Kao told the FBI that at an August 2019 meeting at Navatek's Maine headquarters, Collins and two campaign officials conveyed that the senator expected his continued financial support, and that Collins herself told him "You've seen me deliver." That line is Kao's account to federal investigators rather than a quote confirmed by Collins, and the distinction matters.
It matters partly because of who Kao is. Navatek's former CEO pleaded guilty in 2022 to campaign-finance crimes including funneling illegal straw donations, and to defrauding the Paycheck Protection Program, the federal pandemic-era business loan program, of roughly $13 million. He drew an 87-month sentence. ProPublica reports he later gave the FBI a roughly 50-page account naming dozens of members of Congress and staff in a broader pay-to-play scheme.
| From ProPublica's Reporting | Figure |
|---|---|
| Initial Payment From Kao To The Collins-Aligned Super PAC, 2018 | $150,000 |
| Navatek's Maine Projects In The 2019 Senate Defense Budget Draft | $21.5 million |
| Paycheck Protection Program Money Kao Pleaded Guilty To Defrauding | about $13 million |
| Kao's Prison Sentence | 87 months |
| Kao's Account To The FBI Naming Members Of Congress And Staff | about 50 pages |
Annie Clark, Collins' deputy chief of staff, went straight at it on Sept. 22: "The seven-year-old allegations made against Senator Collins and her staff in this piece are categorically false. There have never been any allegations of wrongdoing by the Collins for Senator campaign, and the campaign was never the target of the FBI investigation." The broader investigation was abandoned after two lead FBI agents, Michelle Ball and Kevin Gounaud, were removed under the Trump administration.
What Jackson Has Done In September
Mostly, he has talked. Within hours of the report landing, Jackson called it "corruption of the highest order. Susan Collins delivered millions in taxpayer dollars for a corrupt donor bankrolling her campaign, and then Donald Trump helped her cover it up." The same day he escalated: "We deserve answers about every contract and every conversation that Collins and her team facilitated on the backs of taxpayers. The jig is up."
Jackson had a statement out the door the day of publication, and both the Bangor Daily News and Maine Public covered the report that same day, so the story ran in Maine's own outlets rather than only in a national investigative feed.
No Maine voter, local official, state Republican or national Senate campaign arm has said anything on the record yet. Until somebody in that group defends Collins or backs away from her, the case that this is durable damage rather than a hard 48 hours rests on one opponent's quotes and one staffer's denial.
About The Numbers
A price on Kalshi is a cost per contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so it reads directly as a chance: Jackson at 72 cents means the market prices him at about a 72% chance to win the seat. The two candidates' prices are quoted separately rather than forced to add to 100, which is why 72 and 29 do not sum neatly. A super PAC is a political committee that raises and spends money independently of a candidate's campaign. Kalshi describes itself as a "Designated Contract Market," a federal designation for a regulated exchange, per its help center as of Sept. 8, 2026. All prices here are as of the timestamp above, and prices move. The $9,147,877 is total dollars traded in this market over its life, including everything before the ProPublica story, so it does not show how much changed hands on the news. The dollar figures attributed to ProPublica cover 2018 through Kao's sentencing.
