Trevor Rogers has not allowed a first-inning run since May 24, a 20-start streak and the loudest number on Friday's 15-game first-inning market. I am passing on it. The two I want are a Boston lineup that has scored first twice in 15, and a Rangers-Twins game with both clubs at 59%.
The Quick Answer
The board's two biggest edges are unplayable: Reds-Blue Jays YRFI +123 (6.9%) and Braves-Marlins YRFI +111 (3.6%) both wait on an unposted starter, and I do not bet an arm I cannot see. Among fully named games, two sides clear OS Pro's true price, its no-vig read of the market, by more than a point: Rangers-Twins YRFI +138 at 3.5% and Cubs-Red Sox NRFI -156 at 1.5%.
Twenty Starts Clean, And I Am Passing
Orioles At Yankees, Game 2: Rogers Vs. Beck, NRFI -146 / YRFI +130
Orioles games produce a first-inning run 45% of the time, fourth-lowest here, and Baltimore has scored first in four of its last 15. Brendan Beck, still on Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre's roster, draws Game 2; his only big-league start, July 4, gave up three in the first. New York has scored first in six of 15.
My read: -146 against a true -135 is paying 3.1% for a streak the market already counted. Best fact on the board, nothing left in the price.
Boston Has Scored First Twice In 15
Cubs At Red Sox, Game 2: Peterson Vs. Bello, NRFI -156 / YRFI +144
Only Miami has scored first less often than Boston, and only Milwaukee has seen fewer first innings with a run, five. David Peterson is clean in six of his last 10, and the Cubs have scored first in four of 15. Brayan Bello is the hesitation: 15 first-inning runs in his first eight starts, then nothing until Sept. 7, clean in both since.
My read: -156 clears a true -162 by 1.5%, the best quiet side among named games. Second size, because two clean starts is a short leash to hang the other eight on.
Two 59% Teams In One Game
Rangers At Twins: deGrom Vs. Ryan, NRFI -127 / YRFI +138
Only Colorado, at 62%, scores in the first more often than Minnesota or Texas. Jacob deGrom and Joe Ryan have each been scored on in four of their last 10 firsts, six of deGrom's on Aug. 25. The counter is recent: a first-inning run in seven of the last 15 Rangers games and eight Twins, about league average, and Minnesota has scored first in three.
My read: +138 against a true +130 is 3.5%, the best number I can actually play today. I will walk past a 20-game streak at -146 to take two 59% teams at plus money.
Those true prices come from OS Pro's no-vig pricing. The first-inning Odds Screen lists all 30 sides, the live odds screen shops every book, and code NRFI takes 20% off your first month.
Friday's Full First-Inning Board
| Game (ET) | NRFI / YRFI | Away SP (clean 1st) | Home SP (clean 1st) | Team YRFI (Away / Home) | Park YRFI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles At Yankees, Gm 2 (follows 4:05 Gm 1) | -146 / +130 | Trevor Rogers (10/10) | Brendan Beck (0/1*) | 45% / 49% | Yankee Stadium 50% |
| Cubs At Red Sox, Gm 2 (6:05) | -156 / +144 | David Peterson (6/10) | Brayan Bello (5/10) | 47% / 51% | Fenway 50% |
| Pirates At Tigers (6:40) | -122 / +118 | Bubba Chandler (7/10) | Jackson Jobe (2/8*) | 47% / 50% | Comerica 40% |
| Rays At Phillies (6:40) | -141 / +138 | Freddy Peralta (4/9*) | Cristopher Sánchez (8/10) | 47% / 53% | Citizens Bank 55% |
| Mets At Nationals (6:45) | -120 / +103 | TBD (unposted) | Andrew Alvarez (10/10) | 51% / 50% | Nationals Park 50% |
| Reds At Blue Jays (7:07) | -120 / +123 | Nick Lodolo (6/10) | TBD (unposted) | 54% / 50% | Rogers Centre 53% |
| Braves At Marlins (7:10) | -113 / +111 | TBD (unposted) | Eury Pérez (8/10) | 49% / 40% | loanDepot 42% |
| Guardians At Royals (7:40) | -130 / +132 | Gavin Williams (7/10) | Noah Cameron (9/10) | 43% / 52% | Kauffman 55% |
| Rockies At White Sox (7:40) | -108 / +108 | Tomoyuki Sugano (6/10) | Sean Burke (8/10) | 62% / 55% | Rate Field 53% |
| Cardinals At Brewers (7:40) | -110 / -102 | Michael McGreevy (5/10) | Robert Gasser (8/10) | 48% / 48% | American Family 56% |
| Rangers At Twins (8:10) | -127 / +138 | Jacob deGrom (6/10) | Joe Ryan (6/10) | 59% / 59% | Target Field 52% |
| Astros At Athletics (9:40) | -102 / -109 | Hunter Brown (9/10) | Jacob Lopez (7/10) | 54% / 54% | Sutter Health 57% |
| Diamondbacks At Padres (9:40) | -115 / +111 | Brandon Pfaadt (9/10) | TBD (unposted) | 54% / 40% | Petco 39% |
| Angels At Mariners (10:10) | -147 / +138 | Reid Detmers (9/10) | Bryce Miller (5/10) | 50% / 55% | T-Mobile 53% |
| Dodgers At Giants (10:15) | -130 / +121 | Tarik Skubal (6/9*) | Yunior Marte (1/2*) | 49% / 52% | Oracle 45% |
A clean first means the pitcher allowed no first-inning run across his last 10 starts with his current club, fewer where marked; TBD is a starter nobody has posted yet. Team and park YRFI count games in which either side scored in the first, against a league mark of 51%. Everything here describes what has already happened, and the prices keep moving until first pitch. 21+ where legal.
More on this: NRFI Picks Today: Only 1 of 15 Games Has Value · MLB Hit Props Today · MLB Strikeout Props Today · MLB Total Bases Props Today · MLB Picks Hub: Today's Live Boards and Series
