We get 15 MLB games for first-inning markets Wednesday, September 23, and one trend is priced the other way: Seth Lugo has allowed 10 first-inning runs in 10 starts, yet White Sox-Royals NRFI is the board's best edge. Walbert Ureña has allowed one first-inning run in 10 starts and comes with a price; Ryan Gusto has seven straight clean firsts and does not.
The Quick Answer
Three NRFI sides are worth playing Wednesday, all by thin margins: White Sox-Royals -107, Rays-Yankees -138 and Angels-Athletics +111. Each one beats what OddsShopper calls the true odds, the no-vig read of the market, by 1.9%, 1.4% and 0.7%. The best of them sits on the loudest runs trend on the board. Miami's NRFI, the quiet-firsts play everyone will look at, is too expensive at -133.
Lugo: 10 First-Inning Runs In 10 Starts
White Sox At Royals: Hudson Vs. Lugo, NRFI -107 / YRFI +100
Lugo has allowed a run in five of his last six firsts, but seven of the 10 came in three of them, and he was clean Sept. 11. Hudson opens for Chicago, six of eight clean, and the White Sox have scored first in five of 15, the Royals in six.
The trend read: I'm not paying +100 for a lumpy trend when the no-vig read says -111. NRFI -107 is the side, 1.9% to its true price, the board's best edge; YRFI +100 is the board's worst, 5.4% past fair.
Rays-Yankees: The Price Without A Trend
Rays At Yankees: Seymour Vs. Cole, NRFI -138 / YRFI +130
Neither starter brings a streak worth pointing out. Ian Seymour is clean in seven of his last 10 firsts, Gerrit Cole in eight of his. Rays games had a first-inning run 47% of the time this season, Yankees games 49%, and Yankee Stadium sits at 50%, right on the league rate.
The trend read: NRFI -138 is the side, 1.4% to its true price and the board's second-best edge. Nothing here is loud; it is priced a touch short, and that is the whole case.
Ureña: One First-Inning Run In 10 Starts
Angels At Athletics: Ureña Vs. Springs, NRFI +111 / YRFI -113
Ureña's one blemish is a run on Sept. 12; the Angels have scored first in five of 15. The other half is: Springs is clean in five of 10, seven runs allowed, and the Athletics allow a first-inning run in 36.3% of games, second only to Colorado.
The trend read: NRFI +111 is the side, 0.7% to its true +109; YRFI -113 misses fair by 1.5%.
Gusto: Seven Straight Clean Firsts
Marlins At Cubs: Gusto Vs. Gausman, NRFI -133 / YRFI +122
Gusto's last first-inning run came Aug. 9; nine clean in 10. Miami has not scored in the first in 15 games, the only lineup at zero. Gausman allowed a three-run first on Sept. 9; the Cubs have scored first in four of 15.
The trend read: NRFI -133 misses fair by 0.7% against a true -131; I'd need -128.
OS Pro's no-vig pricing sets those true prices; the first-inning Odds Screen carries all 30 sides; the live odds screen has the moneylines. Code NRFI takes 20% off OS Pro.
Wednesday's Full First-Inning Board
| Game (ET) | NRFI / YRFI | Away SP (clean 1st) | Home SP (clean 1st) | Team YRFI (Away / Home) | Park YRFI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals At Tigers (1:10) | -130 / +120 | Richard Lovelady (4/5*) | Framber Valdez (6/10) | 51% / 50% | Comerica 40% |
| Twins At Giants (3:45) | -127 / +120 | Connor Prielipp (6/10) | Cesar Perdomo (2/3*) | 60% / 53% | Oracle 46% |
| Blue Jays At Orioles, G2 (6:35) | -118 / +100 | TBD | TBD | 50% / 45% | Camden Yards 37% |
| Cardinals At Pirates (6:40) | -129 / +115 | Matthew Liberatore (7/10) | Lake Bachar (5/7*) | 48% / 47% | PNC 48% |
| Brewers At Phillies (6:40) | -125 / +120 | Logan Henderson (9/10) | Aaron Nola (6/10) | 48% / 53% | Citizens Bank 55% |
| Rays At Yankees (7:05) | -138 / +130 | Ian Seymour (7/10) | Gerrit Cole (8/10) | 47% / 49% | Yankee Stadium 50% |
| Guardians At Red Sox (7:10) | -144 / +126 | Foster Griffin (7/8*) | Sonny Gray (7/10) | 44% / 52% | Fenway 51% |
| Reds At Braves (7:15) | -126 / +115 | Andrew Abbott (6/10) | Chris Sale (9/10) | 53% / 48% | Truist 48% |
| White Sox At Royals (7:40) | -107 / +100 | Bryan Hudson (6/8*) | Seth Lugo (4/10) | 55% / 51% | Kauffman 54% |
| Marlins At Cubs (7:40) | -133 / +122 | Ryan Gusto (9/10) | Kevin Gausman (6/8*) | 41% / 47% | Wrigley 56% |
| Mets At Rangers (8:05) | -120 / +102 | Nolan McLean (7/10) | TBD | 51% / 59% | Globe Life 61% |
| Diamondbacks At Rockies (8:40) | +120 / -136 | Merrill Kelly (9/10) | Mason Adams (4/5*) | 54% / 61% | Coors 71% |
| Angels At Athletics (9:40) | +111 / -113 | Walbert Ureña (9/10) | Jeffrey Springs (5/10) | 50% / 54% | Sutter Health 57% |
| Padres At Dodgers (10:10) | -108 / +100 | Robbie Ray (6/8*) | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7/10) | 41% / 50% | Dodger Stadium 52% |
| Astros At Mariners (10:10) | -105 / -105 | Ethan Pecko (3/4*) | George Kirby (4/10) | 54% / 55% | T-Mobile 54% |
Rate stats: clean first = no first-inning run allowed, last 10 club starts (*fewer); team/park YRFI = games with a first-inning run by either side (league 51%). Trends describe the past; prices move by first pitch. TBD = no named starter; G2 = 6:35 nightcap (1:35 makeup game unpriced). 21+ where legal.
More on this: MLB Picks Hub: Today's Live Boards and Series · NRFI Picks Today: Only 1 of 15 Games Has Value · MLB Hit Props Today · MLB Strikeout Props Today · MLB Total Bases Props Today
