Fifteen MLB games carry a first-inning market Tuesday, September 22, and the loudest trend is priced the other way: Taj Bradley has allowed 11 first-inning runs in 10 starts, yet the true price leans quiet. Jared Jones has six straight clean firsts. Anthony Kay, two runs in 10, starts the board's best-edge game.
The Quick Answer
Only two sides beat OS Pro's true price, its no-vig read of the market, by more than 2%: White Sox-Royals NRFI -104 (2.6%) and Twins-Giants NRFI -117 (2.3%). Cardinals-Pirates carries a quiet trend I'm passing on: the price has it. Nationals-Tigers, 0.5% short, stays in the table.
Jones: Six Straight Clean Firsts
Cardinals At Pirates: Pallante Vs. Jones, NRFI -134 / YRFI +122
Jones has not allowed a first-inning run since Aug. 9. Pittsburgh allows one in 23% of its games, the board low, with a first-inning run in six of its last 15; St. Louis has scored first in three of its last 15. Pallante has allowed first-inning runs in his last three starts, three on Sept. 15.
The trend read: NRFI -134 misses fair by 1.6% against a true -129. I'd need -125; Pallante's last three firsts keep me off it.
Kay: Two First-Inning Runs Allowed In 10 Starts
White Sox At Royals: Kay Vs. Lynch IV, NRFI -104 / YRFI -102
Kay is clean in eight of his last 10, runs on Aug. 15 and Sept. 11; Chicago has scored first in five of its last 15, the Royals in seven, and Daniel Lynch IV gave up four in the first on Sept. 4, the noise keeping the line short of its true -110.
The trend read: NRFI -104 is the side, holding value to its true -110; YRFI -102 is the board's worst, 5.5% past its true +110.
Bradley: 11 First-Inning Runs Allowed In 10 Starts
Twins At Giants: Bradley Vs. Molina, NRFI -117 / YRFI +113
Five clean firsts in 10, three-run firsts on Sept. 5 and Sept. 17, his last start. San Francisco has scored first in nine of its last 15, the board high. Molina counters with three straight clean firsts in four Giants starts; Minnesota has scored first in four of 15.
The trend read: the loudest runs trend, priced the other way. YRFI +113 misses fair by 4.5%; NRFI -117 clears its true -123 by 2.3% and is the side, though I trust it less than Kay's.
OS Pro's no-vig pricing produces those true prices; the first-inning Odds Screen carries all 30 sides; the live odds screen has the moneylines. Code NRFI takes 20% off OS Pro.
Tuesday's Full First-Inning Board
| Game (ET) | NRFI / YRFI | Away SP (clean 1st) | Home SP (clean 1st) | Team YRFI (Away / Home) | Park YRFI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays At Yankees, G1 (1:05) | -132 / +115 | Nick Martinez (8/10) | Carlos Rodón (7/10) | 47% / 50% | Yankee Stadium 51% |
| Blue Jays At Orioles (6:35) | -114 / +110 | Max Scherzer (4/10) | Chris Bassitt (8/10) | 50% / 45% | Camden Yards 37% |
| Nationals At Tigers (6:40) | -104 / -104 | Jackson Kent (4/7*) | Drew Anderson (9/10) | 51% / 50% | Comerica 41% |
| Cardinals At Pirates (6:40) | -134 / +122 | Andre Pallante (6/10) | Jared Jones (9/10) | 49% / 47% | PNC 49% |
| Brewers At Phillies (6:40) | -134 / +120 | Dustin May (6/8*) | Zack Wheeler (7/10) | 48% / 53% | Citizens Bank 56% |
| Guardians At Red Sox (6:45) | -158 / +140 | Parker Messick (8/10) | Payton Tolle (6/10) | 44% / 52% | Fenway 52% |
| Reds At Braves (7:15) | +110 / -124 | Brandon Williamson (5/7*) | JR Ritchie (6/9*) | 53% / 49% | Truist 49% |
| White Sox At Royals (7:40) | -104 / -102 | Anthony Kay (8/10) | Daniel Lynch IV (5/8*) | 55% / 51% | Kauffman 53% |
| Marlins At Cubs (7:40) | -139 / +130 | Janson Junk (9/10) | TBD | 41% / 47% | Wrigley 56% |
| Mets At Rangers (8:05) | -115 / +101 | Sean Manaea (8/10) | MacKenzie Gore (7/10) | 51% / 59% | Globe Life 62% |
| Diamondbacks At Rockies (8:40) | +118 / -132 | Michael Soroka (8/10) | Kyle Freeland (6/10) | 53% / 61% | Coors 71% |
| Angels At Athletics (9:40) | +120 / -132 | Yusei Kikuchi (8/10) | Brady Basso (3/6*) | 50% / 54% | Sutter Health 57% |
| Astros At Mariners (9:40) | -115 / +105 | Cristian Javier (9/10) | Logan Gilbert (7/10) | 54% / 55% | T-Mobile 53% |
| Twins At Giants (9:45) | -117 / +113 | Taj Bradley (5/10) | Anthony Molina (3/4*) | 60% / 53% | Oracle 46% |
| Padres At Dodgers (10:10) | -115 / -103 | Michael King (8/10) | TBD | 41% / 50% | Dodger Stadium 53% |
Rate stats: clean first = no first-inning run allowed, last 10 club starts (*fewer); team/park YRFI = games with a first-inning run by either side (league 51%). Trends describe the past; prices move by first pitch. TBD = no named starter; G1 = doubleheader opener (nightcap unpriced). 21+ where legal.
More on this: NRFI Picks Today: Only 1 of 15 Games Has Value · MLB Hit Props Today · MLB Strikeout Props Today · MLB Total Bases Props Today · MLB Picks Hub: Today's Live Boards and Series
