DeMar DeRozan Next Team Odds: The AI Model Verdict Vs. The Kalshi Market
DeMar DeRozan spent the 2026 offseason turning from a trade chip into a free agent. The Sacramento Kings waived the six-time All-Star on July 6 after they could not find a trade, and he cleared waivers into an open market. Kalshi turned the obvious next question, where does he sign, into a market: one yes/no contract per NBA team, plus a line for "Retires / No Team." The crowd has piled onto the Miami Heat, pricing them near 40 cents while scattering the rest of the field. We asked a price-blind AI panel to score the whole board without letting any model see a single price. It came back with a very different picture: the models fade Miami hard and make a Toronto reunion the best call on a field that is far more open than the market's Miami-heavy read suggests.
New to Kalshi event markets? Start here → how Kalshi's yes/no contracts work.
The Quick Answer
Kalshi's market makes the Miami Heat the clear favorite, trading around 39 cents, with the Toronto Raptors next near 18 cents, the Cleveland Cavaliers around 12 cents, and everyone else in single digits. Our price-blind AI panel does not buy the Miami tilt. It blends Toronto to about 15.5% as its slight favorite, puts Miami at only about 13.9%, and spreads real weight across a cluster of vet-minimum suitors the market prices near zero. On a de-vigged basis the crowd has Miami near a 32% chance; the panel cuts that by more than half.
- Market Favorite: Miami Heat, ~39¢ (about 32% once the board's overround is stripped out)
- Model Favorite: Toronto Raptors, ~15.5% blend, a hair ahead of Miami at ~13.9%
- Where The Models Split From The Price: they fade Miami from ~32% to ~14%, and they price the market's "dead" contracts, the LA Clippers, the Lakers, Detroit, Denver, and the chance he is still unsigned, far higher than a penny or two
- The Key Wrinkle Most Readers Miss: DeRozan was waived, so the "Sacramento" line is effectively dead unless he re-signs there, and the "Retires / No Team" line pays if he is simply unsigned on the settlement date
- The Panel's Logic In One Line: a 36-year-old on a likely minimum deal is a wide-open, wait-and-see market, and one team paying up for him is far less certain than a 39-cent favorite implies.
The waiver that opened this market, the cap math that limits his suitors, the full 31-outcome board, the dark horses, and a plain-English guide to reading these prices are all below.
Want the graded result? Every number in this piece gets scored in public once Kalshi settles the market. The settled record for this board and every other lives on our Model Verdict scoreboard, and you can get the re-scored verdict the moment DeRozan signs through the email capture at the end of this article.
The Market At A Glance
| Venue | Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state, as of August 2026) |
| The Event | "DeMar DeRozan's Next Team" (Kalshi event KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26DDEROZAN10), 31 yes/no contracts: one per NBA team plus a "Retires / No Team" line |
| The Contract | Each team market resolves YES if that team is DeRozan's next team before the settlement date; "Retires / No Team" resolves YES if he retires or is on no roster on that date |
| Window | Kalshi's listed expected expiration is October 21, 2026, the day before the season opens, and the market can resolve early the moment he signs |
| Prices Below As Of | August 4, 2026 (latest snapshot; prices on this page refresh during any free-agency news wave) |
These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Kalshi event contracts trade on a CFTC-regulated exchange; you must be 18 or older and in an eligible state to participate. Every number in this piece gets graded in public once the market settles, in the full graded Model Verdict scoreboard.
The Wrinkle That Shapes This Market
Start with what changed. When Kalshi opened this market, DeRozan was a Sacramento King, so the "Sacramento" contract carried the usual "stays put" role that anchors most next-team boards. Then the Kings waived him on July 6, 2026. Under Kalshi's own rules, "Sacramento" now only resolves YES if he re-signs with the Kings after being cut, which no one is reporting, so the contract that would normally be the favorite is instead close to dead. Compare that to a market like Caitlin Clark's next team, where a locked-in contract makes "stays" an overwhelming favorite. Here there is no anchor at all.
The second wrinkle is the "Retires / No Team" line. It resolves YES if DeRozan officially retires before October 21, 2026 or is simply not on any roster on that date. He has given no retirement signal and clearly wants to keep playing, but at 36, on a market that may not close until the eve of the season, "still unsigned when the market settles" is a live outcome in its own right, not a rounding error. That single line is one of the panel's biggest disagreements with the crowd.
What Actually Anchors This Market
Four fetched facts define the board, and together they explain why the panel spreads the field instead of crowning Miami.
- He Was Waived, Not Traded, And Is A True Free Agent. Sacramento cut DeRozan in a salary-cap move after failing to find a trade; only about $10M of his roughly $25.7M salary was protected money. He cleared waivers and can now sign anywhere. That opens the whole board rather than concentrating it on one team.
- His Price Tag Is Small, Which Widens The Field. Bleacher Report's Jake Fischer reported DeRozan is expected to sign a smaller deal, likely around the veteran minimum. A minimum-salary target is one almost any team can afford, so his market is limited by fit and preference, not money, and more suitors stay live longer.
- The LeBron Domino Already Fell. LeBron James signed with the Philadelphia 76ers, taking the offseason's biggest name off the board, and several teams that chased James pivoted to DeRozan as a fallback. So the interest list is long and still growing in early August.
- The Reported Suitors Each Carry A Catch. Miami is linked most often but is prioritizing Klay Thompson with its roughly $8M mid-level exception. Toronto, his original team, is reading like a real reunion possibility but is partly waiting on a Kawhi Leonard situation. Cleveland has limited cap room, Denver is over the second apron and can offer only the minimum, and Washington has an open roster spot and sits below the tax line. No suitor is a clean, obvious home.
Put together, the board tells one story: a productive but aging scorer, cheap enough for anyone, wanted by many and locked in by none. The panel reads that as a truly open market, which is exactly why it will not hand any single team a 30-plus-percent share.
Here is the short version first, then every model's raw number.
The Board
| Outcome | Why it sits here | Market | Model blend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto | His original franchise; a public reunion tease, gated on the Kawhi Leonard situation | ~18¢ | 15.5% |
| Miami | Linked most often, but its mid-level money is earmarked for Klay Thompson | ~39¢ | 13.9% |
| LA Clippers | Reported interest the market prices at a penny; gated on the Kawhi ruling | ~1¢ | 8.8% |
| Retires / No Team | The live chance he is simply still unsigned when the market settles | ~1¢ | 8.8% |
| Denver | Reported interest, but capped at a veteran-minimum offer | ~3¢ | 8.1% |
| Washington | Open roster spot, below the tax, held conversations | ~8¢ | 7.8% |
| LA Lakers | Floated as a suitor; the market has it near zero | ~1¢ | 7.2% |
| Cleveland | Real interest, but tight cap flexibility | ~12¢ | 7.1% |
| Detroit | Reported interest at a bargain price | ~2¢ | 6.9% |
| Golden State | A fallback option that likely needs a discount | ~6¢ | 5.3% |
| Rest Of Field (21 Teams) | Penny-floor names with no reported story | ~30¢ Combined | ~10.6% |
These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
Every Seat's Number
| Outcome | Market | Fable | Opus | Sonnet | Blend | Gap (blend% − mkt¢) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto | ~18¢ | 15.0 | 16.1 | 15.1 | 15.5% | −3 |
| Miami | ~39¢ | 13.5 | 14.9 | 13.1 | 13.9% | −25 |
| LA Clippers | ~1¢ | 9.0 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 8.8% | +8 |
| Retires / No Team | ~1¢ | 9.0 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 8.8% | +8 |
| Denver | ~3¢ | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 8.1% | +5 |
| Washington | ~8¢ | 7.0 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 7.8% | 0 |
| LA Lakers | ~1¢ | 7.5 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 7.2% | +6 |
| Cleveland | ~12¢ | 7.0 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 7.1% | −5 |
| Detroit | ~2¢ | 6.5 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 6.9% | +5 |
| Golden State | ~6¢ | 5.0 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 5.3% | −1 |
| Philadelphia | ~4¢ | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.3% | −2 |
| Sacramento | ~1¢ | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.2% | 0 |
These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. The Blend column is the mean of each model's full-precision estimate; the per-model figures shown are rounded to one decimal, so a displayed row can average a tenth of a point off the blend. The last column is a quick directional gap, the blend percentage minus the raw market price in cents; read it as direction and size, not a precise edge, because the raw board carries a large overround (see "How to Read These Prices" below). The favorite's market figures are the current last-trade and two-sided marks; the penny-floor lines have thin, one-sided books.
A note on the panel. Our standard Model Verdict lineup runs eight seats. On this run five were unavailable: the ChatGPT, Gemini, GLM, Kimi, and DeepSeek seats did not return a verdict. This board therefore runs on three models: Claude Fable, Claude Opus, and Claude Sonnet. All three scored the field on August 4, 2026 without seeing any prices, working from a fetched, dated summary of the waiver, DeRozan's 2025-26 production, the reported suitors, and each team's cap situation. They then read one another's anonymized reasoning and revised. That revision round is where the board tightened: all three had started with Miami at or near the top, then independently trimmed it and moved Toronto ahead after each landed on the same point, that Miami's spendable money is spoken for. Every model's number also lands in our back-tested Model Verdict ledger, where past price-blind calls are graded against settled results so the method is measured, not just asserted.
The one line that explains the whole board: the market is paying up for the loudest rumor; the panel is pricing a wide-open free agency where the loudest rumor is also the one with the least money to spend.
Toronto: The Reunion The Panel Likes Best
All three models made the Raptors their favorite, and the reason is not just sentiment. Toronto drafted DeRozan in 2009 and he spent his first nine seasons there, and this offseason he posted a cryptic message, "In closing, I remain the same. I come as I leave," that was widely read as flirting with a return. A player's stated preference is a real input on a minimum-money market, where fit and desire, not dollars, decide the winner.
Toronto is his original franchise, publicly flirted a reunion, and offers emotional pull plus a plausible cap path if the Kawhi situation clears. — Opus
The catch, and the reason no seat pushed Toronto much past 15%, is that the Raptors' flexibility is partly tied up in an unresolved Kawhi Leonard trade situation. So the panel's read is a favorite by a nose, not a runaway: the best story on the board, held in check by a real contingency.
Miami: Why The Panel Fades The Market's Favorite
This is the sharpest disagreement on the board. The crowd has Miami near 39 cents, about a 32% chance once you strip out the overround, making the Heat a runaway favorite. The panel blends Miami to just 13.9%. The models accept that Miami is interested; the reporting is clear that the Heat are among the teams of interest. What they doubt is the money. Miami's roughly $8M mid-level exception is being prioritized for Klay Thompson, which would leave DeRozan competing for a minimum slot behind Miami's actual first choice.
Trimmed Miami: its mid-level money is earmarked for Klay Thompson, so the loudest link is not the best-funded one, and the field is wider than one 39-cent favorite. — Fable
The gap between a 32% price and a 14% blend comes down to one idea: interest is not the same as cap space, and a team spending its exception elsewhere is a weaker favorite than the headlines make it look. The models could be wrong, the crowd has real money and real information behind that 39 cents, but the panel's fade is a specific, cap-based argument, not a shrug.
The Field The Market Left For Dead
The flip side of fading Miami is that the panel finds value in the contracts the crowd prices at a penny. Four stand out, all trading around one to three cents while the models see mid-single-digit or better chances:
- The LA Clippers blend to about 8.8% against a one-cent price. There is reported interest, and like Toronto it is gated on the Kawhi Leonard ruling, which is likely why the market is parking it near zero rather than dismissing it.
- "Retires / No Team" also blends to about 8.8% against a penny. This line measures whether he is on a roster at settlement, most realistically because he simply has not signed yet — the panel's read is that a 36-year-old on a minimum deal could still be unsigned when a market that runs to October 21 settles.
- The Lakers blend to about 7.2% versus a one-cent price, on reporting that they have mulled a run at him.
- Detroit And Denver each blend to roughly 7-8% against two and three cents, on reported interest, though Denver can offer only the minimum.
None of these is a confident call. They are the panel's way of saying an open free agency has more live outcomes than a board with one 39-cent favorite lets on.
Dark Horses The Panel Won't Dismiss
Below the top cluster, a few names carry a real, if small, number for a specific reason rather than pure name recognition:
- Golden State blends to about 5.3%. The Warriors have said they will look into DeRozan, mostly as a fallback, and a deal is seen as unlikely unless he takes a discount, which is exactly why it sits in the dark-horse tier rather than the contender tier.
- Cleveland at about 7.1% is the one spot where the panel sits below the market, which has the Cavs near 12 cents. The models like the interest but discount it for Cleveland's limited cap flexibility.
- Philadelphia blends to about 2.3%. The Sixers reached out early, but signing LeBron James tightened their roster and cap, so the panel keeps them as a fading longshot rather than a live suitor.
The Traps: Rows That Look Like Signal But Are Not
Transparency matters more than a clean story, so here is where the table would mislead you:
- A 39-Cent Favorite Is Not A Done Deal. Miami's price is the loudest signal on the board, but it reflects reported interest plus liquidity, not a reported agreement. The panel's much lower number is its read that the money does not match the noise.
- A Penny Price Is Not The Same As Zero. The Clippers, the Lakers, and the "still unsigned" line all trade near the floor, but they are thin-market prices on live scenarios, not measured 0% chances. That is exactly where the panel thinks the value hides.
- "Retires / No Team" Is Broader Than "Retires." That line pays if DeRozan is on no roster at settlement for any reason, most realistically because he simply has not signed yet, not only because he walks away from the game.
- The Board Does Not Sum To 100 Cents. The raw prices add to about 121 cents, so the market is carrying a real overround; do not read the raw cents as clean probabilities without adjusting for it.
How To Read These Prices
The models can tell you where they part from the crowd, but the number in front of you still has to be understood in context. Here is how to read a market like this one.
Work an example. Say Miami shows a 39-cent last trade. Taken at face value, that implies about a 39% chance DeRozan signs there. But on a multi-outcome board you get a fairer, spread-free read by normalizing every outcome so the field sums to 100. This board's raw prices sum to about 121 cents, so dividing Miami's 39 by 121 gives a de-vigged figure closer to 32%. Compare that to the panel's 13.9% blend and it is still nearly a 20-point gap. Do the same for Toronto and you get about 15% de-vigged, almost exactly the panel's 15.5%, which is why the models see Toronto as fairly priced and Miami as the board's biggest overlay. Always convert a raw cent price into its fair, de-vigged value before comparing anything; that habit is the whole idea behind turning Kalshi's cents into real odds.
That same discipline of comparing a number to its fair value is what line shopping and finding the +EV side is about. OddsShopper's odds screen and free expert picks cover the live sports slate rather than transaction markets, and this market itself lives on Kalshi, but the method is the same one our 2027 NBA champion model verdict uses on a very different basketball question, and every number here lands in our back-tested Model Verdict ledger.
A few honest points before reading too much into any number in the table above:
- Eligibility. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, not a sportsbook. You must be 18 or older and located in an eligible state, and availability varies by state and can change.
- Liquidity And Spread. Miami, Toronto, and Cleveland carry the most active books; below them, most contracts sit near the penny floor on thin, one-sided marks, so getting in or out at your number is not always possible.
- A Moving Story. This is a live free agency that could resolve any day; DeRozan could sign before October 21 and settle the market early, and these estimates reflect only what was known on August 4, 2026. Prices shown on this page refresh during any free-agency news wave.
- Not Advice. Everything here is analysis for information, not a recommendation to trade. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
The Bottom Line
The market and the models are looking at the same free agency and reading it very differently. Kalshi has piled onto the Miami Heat near 39 cents, treating the loudest rumor as a runaway favorite; the panel blends Miami to under 14% and hands its slight lead to a Toronto reunion, because on a minimum-money market the team with its exception already spent is a weaker bet than the headlines imply. Miami is still very much in play, because reported interest is real and the crowd has money on it. The read to take is that a 36-year-old free agent, cheap enough for anyone and wanted by many, is a wide-open, wait-and-see market, and the panel is pricing the whole field, including the chance he is still unsigned when this settles, higher than a single 39-cent favorite allows. If this method is your thing, our 2027 NBA champion model verdict and our Caitlin Clark next-team model verdict are the natural next reads.
Hottest Prediction Markets Right Now
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · $166M traded
- Rocket Classic Winner · $124M traded
- 2027 Pro Football Champion · $51M traded
- Pro Baseball Champion · $40M traded
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026 · $30M traded
- 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · $19M traded
Every market above links to our full AI model verdict; browse them all on the OddsShopper prediction markets hub, and see how every settled call actually scored on the full graded scoreboard.
Verdicts generated August 4, 2026. Prices as of August 4, 2026. Panel: Claude Fable, Claude Opus, and Claude Sonnet, price-blind, after one revision round (ChatGPT, Gemini, GLM, Kimi, and DeepSeek seats absent). These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
