NBA Next Team Odds: Every Star's Landing-Spot Market, Scored
Kalshi has turned the offseason's loudest question, where does he play next, into 27 separate NBA next-team markets, one board per player. Most of them are quiet. Draymond Green stays a Warrior at 99 cents, Joel Embiid stays a Sixer at 97, and a dozen more stars sit priced as near-locks to stay put. The action lives in the handful of boards where the answer is still unknown: Kawhi Leonard's return to Toronto is agreed in principle but frozen by an NBA investigation, and three free-agent boards are still unsettled in mid-August. We ran a price-blind AI panel across the board, letting no model see a single price, and it lands in a very different place than the market on the one deal everyone is waiting on.
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The Quick Answer
The busiest NBA next-team board belongs to Kawhi Leonard, whose Toronto contract trades near 75 cents because a Clippers-to-Raptors trade is agreed in principle but on hold while the NBA investigates alleged salary-cap circumvention. Our price-blind AI panel is not as sure the deal closes on time: it blends Toronto to about 62%, roughly 13 points below the market's 75-cent price, and gives "Stays with the Clippers or Retires" about 36% versus the market's 19. Everywhere else the panel and the crowd mostly agree: Steph Curry (about 96% to stay a Warrior) and the rest of the star tier are near-locks, while DeMar DeRozan, Bradley Beal, and Jonathan Kuminga are the only other boards without a runaway favorite. The full 27-board table, the model-by-model split on Kawhi, and the boards that just settled are below.
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The Board: All 27 Live NBA Next-Team Markets
Every open Kalshi NBA next-team board, with the market's favored outcome and its price as of August 13, 2026. Prices are single yes/no contracts, read at face value; because a board lists many contracts, its prices can sum above 100 cents, so treat each as an approximate probability rather than an exact one. These are model estimates and market prices, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
| Player | Market's favored outcome | Price | Scored verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Toronto (trade on hold) | 75¢ | Panel 62% Toronto |
| Steph Curry | Stays with Golden State or retires | 95¢ | Panel ~96% |
| Kevin Durant | Stays with Houston or retires | 93¢ | Panel ~90% |
| Bronny James | Los Angeles Lakers | 83¢ | Panel ~80% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Miami (unsigned) | 43¢ | Panel fades Miami |
| Draymond Green | Stays with Golden State or retires | 99¢ | Market near-lock |
| James Harden | Stays with Cleveland or retires | 97¢ | Market near-lock |
| Joel Embiid | Stays with Philadelphia or retires | 97¢ | Market near-lock |
| Trae Young | Washington | 97¢ | Market near-lock |
| Chet Holmgren | Stays with Oklahoma City or retires | 96¢ | Market near-lock |
| Austin Reaves | Los Angeles Lakers | 95¢ | Market near-lock |
| Nikola Jokic | Denver | 95¢ | Market near-lock |
| Zion Williamson | Stays with New Orleans or retires | 95¢ | Market near-lock |
| Jayson Tatum | Stays with Boston or retires | 95¢ | Market near-lock |
| Aaron Gordon | Denver | 94¢ | Market near-lock |
| Devin Booker | Stays with Phoenix or retires | 94¢ | Market near-lock |
| Josh Giddey | Stays with Chicago or retires | 94¢ | Market near-lock |
| Andrew Wiggins | Miami | 93¢ | Market near-lock |
| Lauri Markkanen | Stays with Utah or retires | 93¢ | Market near-lock |
| Anthony Davis | Washington | 92¢ | Market near-lock |
| Kyrie Irving | Stays with Dallas or retires | 90¢ | Market near-lock |
| Jalen Duren | Detroit | 88¢ | Market near-lock |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio | 87¢ | Market near-lock |
| Trey Murphy III | Stays with New Orleans or retires | 84¢ | Market near-lock |
| Domantas Sabonis | Sacramento | 79¢ | Market near-lock |
| Bradley Beal | Boston | 41¢ | Open board (unsigned) |
| Jonathan Kuminga | Los Angeles Lakers | 37¢ | Open board (unsigned FA) |
More live boards from the same panel: the model scored Steph Curry's next-team market (Golden State 95¢ this run), Kevin Durant's board (Houston 93¢), and Bronny James' board (Lakers 83¢) in full. Prices fetched August 13, 2026.
Kawhi Leonard: The One Board Everyone Is Waiting On
This is the market with the story. In late June, the Los Angeles Clippers and Toronto Raptors agreed in principle to send Kawhi Leonard back to Toronto, where he won Finals MVP in 2019, for a package reported as Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, and future draft picks. Then it stopped. Both teams announced the trade will not be completed until the NBA finishes an active investigation into whether the Clippers circumvented the salary cap by paying Leonard through a now-bankrupt company, Aspiration. There is no public timetable for the league's findings. Leonard himself has said he expects the deal to go through and to be in a Raptors jersey by training camp.
That is why the "Toronto" contract sits at 75 cents rather than in the 90s. Both franchises want the trade, the player wants the trade, and no alternative destination is being reported. The offset is a live, open-ended league investigation that could delay the deal past the board's October 21 settlement date, or reshape it. On the board, that risk lives entirely in one other contract: "Stays with the Los Angeles Clippers or Retires," which resolves yes if Leonard is still a Clipper on October 21, meaning the trade did not close in time.
Our panel weighs that investigation more heavily than the market does. Six models scored the board price-blind and landed on Toronto at about 62%, with the stay-a-Clipper outcome near 36%. Only two outcomes carry real weight on this board, Toronto at 75 cents and "Stays with the Clippers or Retires" at 19, so treated as the two-way race it really is, the market implies roughly an 80% chance the trade closes (75 of the 94 cents split between them) against a 20% chance it does not. The panel puts the trade at 62% and the stay-a-Clipper case at 36%, fading the deal by nearly 18 points and giving the "it doesn't close in time" outcome almost double the market's weight. The disagreement is not about whether Toronto is favored. Every seat had Toronto as the top outcome. It is about how much credit to give a trade that both sides agreed to but neither side can currently complete.
Every Seat's Number (Kawhi, After The Revision Round)
| Model | Toronto | Stays Clippers / Retires |
|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek | 68% | 30% |
| Opus | 62% | 37% |
| GLM | 62% | 38% |
| Kimi | 62% | 35% |
| Sonnet | 60% | 38% |
| Fable | 58% | 39% |
| Panel Blend | ~62% | ~36% |
Each seat's two numbers need not add to 100 because the board carries other team contracts that absorb the small remainder. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. The Kawhi board was scored by six seats this cycle (Fable, Opus, Sonnet, GLM, Kimi, and DeepSeek); the ChatGPT and Gemini seats were unavailable this run. Prices as of August 13, 2026, and they refresh on this page during any news wave on the trade.
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
After the first round, every model read the other seven anonymized estimates and could revise. On Kawhi the revision round pulled the seats toward each other rather than apart, and it did so from both directions, which is the healthiest kind of convergence.
I moved Toronto from 65% down to about 62%. The peer cluster centers near 60%, and the open-ended cap and tampering investigation with no timetable is a real close-by-October-21 risk I under-weighted. — Opus
I revised Toronto up from 55% to 58%. A peer's point that roughly 69 days is likely enough runway for the investigation to clear before settlement is valid, and both sides plus Leonard want closure, but the no-timetable risk still caps the upside. — Fable
I nudged Toronto up from 58% to 60% toward the peer mean and the runway argument, but kept Stays-Clippers at a live 38% because the hold is not yet resolved. — Sonnet
One seat held its ground: DeepSeek stayed the panel's high mark at 68% Toronto across both rounds, reasoning that an agreed-in-principle trade both sides want is likely to close and that no alternative destination has surfaced. The spread from the most cautious seat (Fable, 58%) to the most confident (DeepSeek, 68%) is only ten points, tight for a board whose outcome hinges on a league ruling nobody can time.
Steph Curry: The Panel's Most Confident Near-Lock
The counterweight to Kawhi is Steph Curry, and here the panel and the market are close to identical. Curry is under contract with the Warriors for 2026-27, has no trade request on record, and is exactly the kind of franchise cornerstone who does not move at this stage. When the panel scored his board on August 1, all eight seats returned, and the blend on "Stays with Golden State or retires" landed near 96%, a shade above the market's 95 cents. The revision round barely moved it, drifting from about 94.4% to 95.9% as seats confirmed each other's read that a player under contract with no rumor attached is about as close to a lock as this board offers. That is the template for most of this board: the full Curry verdict is here, and Kevin Durant's Houston board sits in the same near-lock tier at about 90% by the panel.
The Unsigned: The Only Other Boards Still In Play
Three boards besides Kawhi lack a runaway favorite, and each is a still-open free-agent market where the answer depends on who pays and when.
- DeMar DeRozan trades with Miami near 43 cents as the market's soft favorite. He was waived by Sacramento and is an unrestricted free agent likely limited to a small deal, which is why our panel fades Miami and treats the board as wide open rather than a two-thirds Miami lock.
- Bradley Beal shows Boston near 41 cents, a board still searching for its answer as an unsigned veteran with a limited market.
- Jonathan Kuminga sits with the Lakers near 37 cents, a free agent after the Hawks declined his team option, with his market softened by a gap between his salary demands and the offers on the table; the Lakers' reported bid was around two years and $20 million.
These are the boards to watch for movement. Unlike the near-locks, a single signing report resolves them, and the market can settle early the moment the ink dries.
The Near-Locks: Where The Market And The Models Both Say "Stays"
Most of the board is quiet by design. Draymond Green (99¢), James Harden (97¢), Joel Embiid (97¢), Chet Holmgren (96¢), Jayson Tatum (95¢), Nikola Jokic (95¢), Zion Williamson (95¢), Devin Booker (94¢), Kyrie Irving (90¢), and the rest of the star tier are all priced as overwhelming favorites to stay exactly where they are, and a price-blind panel that reasons from contract status agrees. Two of the offseason's completed moves already show up as "next team" locks rather than stays: Trae Young trades at 97 cents for Washington and Anthony Davis at 92 cents for Washington, both reflecting trades that have already gone through. When a player is under contract with no rumor attached, there is no edge to find, and the honest read is the boring one.
Settled Recently: LeBron James To Philadelphia
The board also carries a fresh graded result. LeBron James' next-team market settled to Philadelphia, the outcome that had traded as a single-digit longshot before the signing landed. It is a reminder that these markets can break hard against the consensus when a star makes an unexpected call, and it is exactly the kind of result our public scoreboard is built to record. The full LeBron recap is here.
Dark Horses The Panel Won't Dismiss
On a board this favorite-heavy, the dark horses are not other teams for Kawhi. They are the low-probability tails inside the boards that matter:
- Kawhi Stays A Clipper (About 36% By The Panel). This is the board's real second option, and it is nearly double the market's 19-cent read. If the investigation drags past October 21, it does not resolve as a longshot at all.
- DeRozan Unsigned At Settlement. On a market that may not close until the eve of the season, "still a free agent on October 21" is a live outcome for a 36-year-old on a minimum-deal market, not a rounding error.
- A Kuminga Signing Away From The Lakers. His 37-cent Lakers line is the board's softest favorite, and a market where his asking price outruns the current offers can easily resolve to a team that is not the pre-signing front-runner.
What Would Change The Panel's Mind
Four concrete, event-shaped triggers would move these numbers, and each pushes a specific direction:
- The NBA closes its Kawhi investigation with no penalty. That clears the last obstacle and pushes Toronto sharply up, likely toward the 90s, and collapses the stay-a-Clipper line.
- The league imposes a penalty that voids or reshapes the trade. That pushes the stay-a-Clipper contract up and Toronto down, the panel's cautious scenario made real.
- A DeRozan, Beal, or Kuminga signing report. Any of these resolves its board almost immediately and can settle the market early, so those prices are the most likely on the whole page to jump overnight.
- A surprise trade request from a "near-lock" star. None is reported today, but a single credible report would turn a 95-cent stay contract into a live market and is the only thing that moves the quiet two-thirds of this board.
Settlement Timeline
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Board Settlement (Most Players) | October 21, 2026, the day before the 2026-27 season opens; each market can resolve early the moment a player signs or is traded |
| Kawhi Leonard Catalyst | The NBA's investigation into the Clippers has no public timetable; a ruling can land any day and would resolve the board's central question |
| Unsigned Free Agents | DeRozan, Beal, and Kuminga can resolve early on any signing report through the fall |
| Standing Policy | Every number on this page is re-scored when the story moves; prices last read August 13, 2026, and refresh during any news wave |
How To Read A Next-Team Board
Each board is a set of yes/no contracts, one per possible outcome, and each trades in cents that read as a rough probability. A 75-cent Toronto contract means the market is paying 75 cents to collect a dollar if Kawhi's next team is Toronto. Because a board lists many contracts, their prices can add up to more than 100 cents, an overround that makes every favorite look slightly stronger than it truly is. That is why our panel works price-blind: the models never see the cents, so their estimate is an independent read you can hold against the market rather than an echo of it. When the two agree, as they do on Curry, the market is doing its job. When they split, as they do on Kawhi, the gap is the whole point. If you want to see a single game or player market broken down the same way, our free tools and picks live at OddsShopper's expert picks.
To Be Explicit
The numbers on this page are exchange prices and model estimates, not betting advice and not a prediction of what any player or team will do. Kalshi event contracts trade on a CFTC-regulated exchange; you must be 18+ and in an eligible state to participate. Nothing here is a promise of any outcome. Every number in this piece gets graded in public once each market settles, and the full record lives on our Model Verdict scoreboard. To get the re-scored board the moment the Kawhi ruling lands or a free agent signs, sign up for the weekly PM brief in the box at the end of this article.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will the Kawhi Leonard trade to Toronto be official? There is no set date. Both teams agreed in principle in late June 2026, but the trade is on hold until the NBA completes its investigation into alleged salary-cap circumvention, and the league has not given a public timetable. The board settles October 21, 2026 if nothing changes before then.
Why is Kawhi's Toronto contract only 75 cents if the trade is agreed? Because "agreed in principle" is not "completed." The deal cannot close while the investigation is open, and there is a real chance it slips past the board's settlement date or is reshaped. Our panel prices that risk even higher than the market, at roughly a 62% chance the Toronto outcome resolves yes.
Which NBA next-team markets are still truly open? Four boards lack a runaway favorite: Kawhi Leonard (Toronto vs. staying a Clipper), plus three still-open free-agent boards, DeMar DeRozan, Bradley Beal, and Jonathan Kuminga. The rest of the board is priced as near-locks for players who are staying put.
How do these markets settle? Each team contract resolves yes if that team is the player's next team before October 21, 2026. "Stays with [team] or Retires" contracts resolve yes if the player does not change teams. Markets can resolve early the moment a signing or trade is finalized.
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