Miami has not scored in the first inning since Sept. 3, a 17-game drought, and on Thursday's 12-game first-inning market the Marlins' game is the only one priced more than two points clear of fair. Cam Schlittler has gone eight starts without allowing a first-inning run. Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed 15 in his last 10, and his game still points quiet.
The Quick Answer
One side beats what OddsShopper calls fair, its no-vig read of the market, by more than two points: Marlins-Cubs NRFI -122, clear by 3.2%. Diamondbacks-Rockies NRFI +115 is next at 1.7%. Five more clear by 1.1% or less, which is noise.
Seventeen Games Without A First-Inning Run
Marlins At Cubs, 2:20 ET: Phillips Vs. Boyd, NRFI -122
Miami bats first, so the drought is this NRFI's first hurdle. Phillips is clean in six of 10. Boyd is the live risk: clean in seven of 10, but his three misses cost seven runs, two of them three-run innings. Chicago has scored first in four of 15.
Where I land: -122 against a true -131 is the board's biggest edge at 3.2%, and Boyd's damage comes in bursts rather than drips. YRFI +115 is the worst price of the day, 6.9% short of its true +131.
Gordon's Eight Straight Carry A Coors Game
Diamondbacks At Rockies, 3:10 ET: E. Rodriguez Vs. Gordon, NRFI +115
Tanner Gordon has not allowed a first-inning run since June 30, eight starts back, and that streak does all the work. Everything else argues the other way. Rodriguez has been scored on in each of his last four firsts, 10 runs across them, five in one inning on Sept. 18. Coors runs a 71% first-inning rate, and Arizona has scored in the first in three straight after managing it once in 12.
Where I land: even the loud side misses, YRFI -117 sitting 2.3% short. NRFI +115 against a true +111 is 1.7% clear, and it buys Gordon's streak and nothing else.
Schlittler Has Not Been Touched In Eight Starts
Rays At Yankees, 7:05 ET: Seymour Vs. Schlittler, NRFI -152
Schlittler gave up two in the first on Aug. 3 and has been clean every start since. Tampa Bay bats first and has scored first in five of 15. The Yankees are the opposite, on the board first in seven of 15, a board high, but Seymour has allowed one run in each of his last two firsts and no multi-run first in his last 10.
Where I land: -152 is 1.0% to a true -156. Thin; I am on it for the capped downside, not the number. YRFI +144 misses by 4.7%.
True prices come from OddsShopper's no-vig pricing. All 24 sides sit on the first-inning Odds Screen, moneylines on the live odds screen, and code NRFI takes 20% off your first month of OS Pro.
Thursday's First-Inning Board
| Game (ET) | NRFI / YRFI | Away SP (clean 1st) | Home SP (clean 1st) | Team YRFI (Away / Home) | Park YRFI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals At Pirates (12:35) | -147 / +143 | Kyle Leahy (7/10) | Paul Skenes (7/10) | 48% / 47% | PNC 48% |
| White Sox At Royals (2:10) | +102 / -115 | David Sandlin (2/5*) | Randy Dobnak (9/10) | 55% / 51% | Kauffman 55% |
| Marlins At Cubs (2:20) | -122 / +115 | Tyler Phillips (6/10) | Matthew Boyd (7/10) | 41% / 47% | Wrigley 55% |
| Mets At Rangers (2:35) | -103 / -110 | Zac Thornton (5/10) | Kumar Rocker (7/10) | 51% / 58% | Globe Life 60% |
| Diamondbacks At Rockies (3:10) | +115 / -117 | Eduardo Rodriguez (4/10) | Tanner Gordon (8/10) | 54% / 61% | Coors 71% |
| Brewers At Phillies (6:05) | -113 / -101 | TBD | Andrew Painter (5/10) | 48% / 53% | Citizens Bank 56% |
| Guardians At Red Sox (6:45) | -143 / +141 | Daniel Espino (1/2*) | Ranger Suárez (9/10) | 44% / 51% | Fenway 51% |
| Rays At Yankees (7:05) | -152 / +144 | Ian Seymour (7/10) | Cam Schlittler (9/10) | 47% / 49% | Yankee Stadium 51% |
| Reds At Braves (7:15) | -106 / +100 | Brady Singer (6/10) | Tyler Mahle (5/8*) | 53% / 49% | Truist 49% |
| Astros At Athletics (9:40) | +133 / -141 | Peter Lambert (6/10) | Mason Barnett (2/5*) | 54% / 54% | Sutter Health 58% |
| Angels At Mariners (9:40) | -121 / +120 | Grayson Rodriguez (6/10) | Bryan Woo (5/10) | 51% / 55% | T-Mobile 53% |
| Padres At Dodgers (10:10) | -118 / +115 | Nick Pivetta (6/7*) | Tyler Glasnow (8/10) | 41% / 49% | Dodger Stadium 51% |
A clean first means no first-inning run allowed across the pitcher's last 10 starts with his current club, fewer where marked. Team and park YRFI count games in which either side scored in the first; the league sits at 51%. Every trend here describes what has already happened, and prices keep moving until first pitch. 21+ where legal.
More on this: NRFI Picks Today: Only 1 of 15 Games Has Value · MLB Hit Props Today · MLB Strikeout Props Today · MLB Total Bases Props Today · MLB Picks Hub: Today's Live Boards and Series
