Maxx Crosby spent the 2026 offseason at the center of trade speculation, watched a done deal to Baltimore collapse on a failed physical, then showed up early to Raiders training camp and told reporters "I feel incredible." Kalshi turned the open question of where he plays into a market, one yes/no contract per team. For most of August the crowd priced "stays with Las Vegas or retires" near 70 cents. Then, in the overnight hours before Week 1, the board repriced. Dallas was 12 cents bid when Sunday's session closed. By Monday morning, September 7, it was 23 cents bid and 27 cents offered. Philadelphia and San Francisco moved with it, and the favorite slid to 61 cents. No trade report caused any of it. We asked six AI models to score the whole board back on August 3 without letting any of them see a price, and their verdict is frozen on this page: every seat made staying put the overwhelming favorite at roughly 93%, and faded the Cowboys and the rest of the trade tail hard. The market has now moved further away from them, not closer, and this page explains what actually moved, why, and how to read a 23-27 book on a rumor.
New to Kalshi event markets? Start here → how Kalshi's yes/no contracts work.
The Quick Answer
Kalshi's market still makes "Stays with Las Vegas or Retires" the favorite, but at 61¢ bid, 62¢ ask on Monday morning, September 7, down from about 70¢ when this page first published. The Dallas Cowboys are the top trade destination at 23¢ bid, 27¢ ask (up from about 6¢ on August 3 and a 12¢ bid at Sunday's close), Philadelphia is 9¢ / 13¢, and San Francisco, a one-cent name a month ago, is 5¢ / 8¢. Our price-blind, six-model panel scored this board on August 3 and blended the stay-or-retire outcome to about 93%; those numbers are frozen and will be graded when the market settles. The repricing is coherent across the whole field, about 4,800 Dallas contracts changed hands in 24 hours, the overnight prints ran as high as 38¢, and the most recent one, 29¢, still sits above the 27¢ offer, which is why the honest level is the 23-27 book rather than the tape. Within the hour after this snapshot, a 95-contract seller had already walked the bid down to 19¢, so treat every Dallas number on this page as the 8 a.m. ET mark.
- Market Favorite: Stays with Las Vegas or Retires, 61¢ / 62¢ (was ~70¢ on August 3)
- Model Favorite: Stays with Las Vegas or Retires, ~93% blend (frozen August 3; same pick, far more conviction)
- What Moved: Dallas 3¢ (September 1) → 11¢ (September 3) → 23¢ / 27¢ (September 7) on speculation, not a report; Philadelphia 2¢ → 9¢ / 13¢; San Francisco 5¢ / 8¢; the favorite 74¢ (September 2) → 61¢ / 62¢
- The Key Wrinkle Most Readers Miss: the favorite contract also pays out if Crosby retires, and any trade must clear the November 10 deadline
- The Panel's Logic In One Line: a healthy, franchise-cornerstone edge rusher with a punitive trade cost and no active deal is a strong bet to open December right where he is.
The trade timeline, the dead-cap math that anchors this market, the full board with the frozen model numbers, a What Moved section built from the September 7 tape, the sourced news record behind the move, and a plain-English guide to reading these prices are all below.
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Want the graded result?Every number in this piece gets scored in public once Kalshi settles the market. The settled record for this board and every other lives on our Model Verdict scoreboard, and you can get the re-scored verdict when this one resolves through the email capture at the end of this article.
The Market At A Glance
| Venue | Kalshi |
| The Event | "Maxx Crosby's Next Team" (Kalshi event KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY), 32 yes/no contracts, one per team, with the Las Vegas contract also resolving YES if he retires |
| The Contract | Kalshi's rule text, verbatim from the exchange: "If Maxx Crosby's next team is [Team] before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes." The favorite contract also resolves YES if he retires. Older third-party write-ups that describe this board as settling at Week 1 kickoff are describing a different rule; the live contract runs to December 1 |
| Window | Kalshi's listed close is December 1, 2026, and the market can resolve early once a move happens; the live catalyst is the November 10, 2026 NFL trade deadline, which makes this a trade-deadline market with Week 1 as its first real test |
| Prices Below As Of | Monday, September 7, 2026, about 8 a.m. ET (model numbers frozen from August 3, 2026; prices on this page refresh during any trade-rumor wave into the deadline) |
These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Kalshi event contracts trade on a CFTC-regulated exchange; you must be 18 or older and in an eligible state to participate. Every number in this piece gets graded in public once the market settles, in the full graded Model Verdict scoreboard.
The Wrinkle That Shapes This Market
Start with the outcome that trips up most readers: the favorite contract is not just "Crosby stays a Raider." Kalshi bundles two things into one line, "Stays with Las Vegas or Retires." That contract pays out if he opens December in silver and black or if he walks away from football entirely. Every team-specific market, from Dallas to Green Bay, only pays if Crosby is actually on that roster instead.
The second wrinkle is the calendar. The 2026 NFL trade deadline is November 10 at 4 p.m. New York time. After that, no team can trade for him for the rest of the season. So for any Cowboys-or-anyone outcome to hit before the December 1 close, a deal has to land in the window between now and that November deadline. That single structural fact is why the panel treated the whole trade tail as a long shot in August: it is not enough to want Crosby, a team has to complete a trade inside a closing window, and the price of doing so is steep. It is also why the September repricing matters: the market is no longer pricing a preseason deal, it is pricing a deadline deal, and it has nine weeks of games to watch before then.
What Actually Anchors This Market
Four fetched facts defined the board on August 3, and together they explain why the models sat well above the 70-cent price then, and sit even further above the 61-cent price now.
- He Is Healthy And In Camp. Crosby had offseason knee surgery and roughly six months of recovery, then returned as a full participant to Raiders training camp, arriving early with the rookies. Head coach Klint Kubiak said he was ready for day one. A player practicing on his current team in August is the single strongest evidence of where he opens the season.
- A Trade Is Expensive. Crosby signed a three-year, $106.5M extension in 2025. For 2026 his cap hit is about $35.8M, and moving him would leave roughly $64.1M in dead money on the Raiders' books (Spotrac figures). That penalty makes a Las Vegas-initiated trade financially punitive, not impossible, but the kind of cost that stops most deals before they start.
- The One Real Deal Already Collapsed. In March 2026 a Raiders–Ravens trade was in place, two first-round picks for Crosby, and then fell through when Crosby did not pass his physical, and the Raiders announced the trade was off. The most advanced trade scenario on record is a deal that died on the table.
- Both Sides Signal Status Quo, On The Record. The last time this exact scenario came up, a 2-5 Raiders team two weeks from the deadline in October 2025, the Raiders met with Crosby to tell him he would not be traded, per NFL Network's Tom Pelissero, after Dallas had inquired. That stance did not survive the offseason, since the same front office agreed to the Ravens deal in March, which is why the 2026 signals matter more: general manager John Spytek said in mid-August he has "every expectation" Crosby will be a Raider, and Crosby said the Cowboys chatter "doesn't change anything" for him. Both quotes are linked in the What Moved section below.
That is the whole story of the board as the panel saw it. A cornerstone player, healthy and practicing, with a prohibitive trade cost, a collapsed deal behind him, and both sides publicly aligned. The models priced that as close to settled, minus a small discount for the fact that the season and the trade deadline had not yet come and gone. The market has since decided that discount is worth a lot more than the models did.
Here is the short version first, then every model's raw number.
The Board
| Outcome | Status | Market (Sept 7) | Model blend (Aug 3) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stays With Las Vegas Or Retires | Healthy, full camp participant; ~$64M dead-cap to trade | 61¢ bid / 62¢ ask | 92.8% |
| Dallas | Most-discussed trade destination; repriced on speculation, no reported deal | 23¢ / 27¢ | 2.8% |
| Philadelphia | Distant second in speculation | 9¢ / 13¢ | 1.2% |
| San Francisco | A one-cent name on August 3, now a real second suitor price | 5¢ / 8¢ | in the field bucket |
| Baltimore | The team whose deal collapsed on his physical | 0¢ / 1¢ | 0.7% |
| Rest Of Field (27 Teams) | Chicago, Cleveland, Seattle 1¢ / 2¢; everyone else 0¢ / 1¢ | ~17.5¢ combined at the mid | ~2.6% (the model bucket is 28 teams: San Francisco drew no individual August score) |
Model estimates, not advice.
Every Seat's Number
Beyond the favorite, Dallas, Philadelphia and Baltimore, every other team drew only leftover "field" mass from the models in August, San Francisco included, so the honest per-model view is those four rows and the combined remainder. The market column is the September 7 mid-price; the model columns are frozen from August 3.
| Outcome | Market (Sept 7 mid) | Fable | Opus | Sonnet | GLM | Kimi | DeepSeek | Blend | Gap (blend% − mkt¢) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stays With Las Vegas Or Retires | 61.5¢ | 93.0 | 93.2 | 91.4 | 92.0 | 92.2 | 95.0 | 92.8% | +31 |
| Dallas | 25¢ | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.8% | −22 |
| Philadelphia | 11¢ | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.2% | −10 |
| Baltimore | 0.5¢ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.7% | +0 |
| Rest Of Field (28 Teams, Incl. San Francisco) | ~24¢ | 2.8 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | ~2.6% | −21 |
The Blend column is the simple mean of the six model numbers shown in its row. The last column is a quick directional gap, the blend percentage minus the market mid in cents; read it as direction and size, not a precise edge. On August 3 the market column was built from daily candlestick closes because the book was too thin to quote; on September 7 every row is a two-sided quote with volume and open interest behind it, and the mids sum to about 121.5 cents, so there is real spread to remove, most of it stacked in the longshot tail where 24 teams sit at 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask. Treat the "Rest of field" row as one shared "some other team" bucket, not 28 distinct reads.
More live boards from the same panel: Jalen Duren next team (Detroit 83¢ / 87¢), Trey Murphy III next team (stays in New Orleans 83¢ / 84¢), Draymond Green next team (stays with Golden State 98¢ bid), and the full NFL next-team odds board.
A note on the panel. Our standard Model Verdict lineup runs eight seats. On this run two were unavailable: the ChatGPT and Gemini seats were not installed on the machine that produced these verdicts. This board therefore runs on six models: Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, GLM, Kimi, and DeepSeek. All six scored the field on August 3, 2026 without seeing any prices, working from a fetched, dated summary of Crosby's health, contract, trade history, and the deadline calendar. They then read one another's anonymized reasoning and revised. The revision round tightened the board: Sonnet raised the favorite from 88 to 91.4 toward the panel median after unanimous, independent agreement on the dead-cap and camp evidence, Opus added a small Baltimore tail on the collapsed-physical point it had under-weighted, and the rest held near 93. Every model's number also lands in our back-tested Model Verdict ledger, where past price-blind calls are graded against settled results so the method is measured, not just asserted. The numbers were not re-run for this update; the market moved, the models did not.
The one line that explains the whole boardthe market now prices some Crosby trade at somewhere between 40% and a coin flip, depending on how you treat the one-cent tail, with Dallas the single largest destination at about one in five; the models, scored a month earlier, treated it as close to a non-event before December. Both make "stays or retires" the pick, but the gap between them has grown from 23 points to 31.
What Moved Since August 3
Every price in this section is from the Monday, September 7 pull, about 8 a.m. ET, and the tape behind it is Kalshi's own trade log. The page first published off an August 3 snapshot, when the favorite was near 70¢, Dallas was about 6¢, and the book below the favorite was too thin to quote. Five things changed, and one thing did not.
- Dallas Doubled Off The Bid, In One Hour, After Midnight. Dallas closed Tuesday, September 1, at 3¢. It closed Thursday, September 3, at 11¢, Friday at 17¢ on about 3,400 contracts, Saturday at 12¢, and Sunday, September 6, at 14¢ with a 12¢ bid and 14¢ offer. Then, between midnight and 1 a.m. ET on Monday, September 7, about 4,475 contracts traded, almost all of them buyers lifting offers, walking the price from 14¢ up through prints at 23¢, 25¢, 29¢ and 31¢ to a peak of 483 contracts at 38¢ at 12:33 a.m. ET. The tape drifted back through 26¢ and 27¢ over the next hour, the last prints before this pull went off at 29¢ around 6:17 a.m. ET, and the book settled at 23¢ bid, 27¢ ask. Across the full 24 hours, about 4,821 Dallas contracts changed hands, roughly 4,326 of them with the buyer as the aggressor at an average price near 28¢, against about 495 sold at an average near 18¢. In dollars that is small: about $1,350 of notional bought Dallas overnight, and the 483-contract peak print was about $184. The move is real and coherent, but it is a few traders' money, not a stampede, which is worth holding onto every time this page says the market repriced. Open interest rose from about 125,500 to 128,964. Over the four days since Thursday, that is close to 12,000 Dallas contracts, about 9,100 of them bought at an average of 21.5¢. The overnight buyers paid an average near 28¢ for contracts that are now 23¢ bid, five contracts deep: every one of them is underwater on the mark, and none of them can get out at anything near their entry. That started showing within the hour: between 8:05 and 8:08 a.m. ET, 95 contracts sold into the bid walked it from 23¢ to 19¢, and by 8:30 a.m. the book read 19¢ bid, 24¢ ask, with a 19¢ last.
- The 29¢ Last Is Not The Price. The 23-27 Book Is. The last Dallas print, 29¢, sits above the 27¢ offer, and the 38¢ peak an hour earlier sat 11 cents above it, because the overnight buyer ran through the resting offers and the book refilled lower once it was done. Read the level off the bid: 23¢ is where a seller can get out right now, and it is still roughly double the 12¢ bid that closed Sunday. The bid side is also thin, five contracts at 23¢, ten at 22¢, 25 at 21¢, then 100 at 20¢, so a modest seller would push the bid back toward 20¢. On the offer side, ten contracts sit at 27¢, 88 at 28¢ and 100 at 29¢ before a gap to 39¢. That is a real two-sided market, but a shallow one, and it is the reason this page quotes "23-27" rather than a single number.
- Philadelphia And San Francisco Moved With It, Which Is What Makes The Move Coherent. A single stale print on one contract is noise; three suitors repricing in the same hours is the flow changing its mind about whether a trade happens at all, small in dollars (roughly $280 of Philadelphia and $250 of San Francisco notional) but pointed the same way. Philadelphia closed Sunday at 2¢ and now sits 9¢ bid, 13¢ ask, on about 2,578 contracts in 24 hours, roughly 2,346 of them bought at an average near 11¢ with prints as high as 25¢. San Francisco, a one-cent name when this page published, is 5¢ bid, 8¢ ask, on about 4,144 contracts, about 3,320 of them bought at an average near 6¢ with prints to 9¢. Chicago, Cleveland and Seattle are 1¢ / 2¢; the other 24 teams are 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask.
- The Anchor Came Off, From The Sell Side. "Stays with Las Vegas or Retires" closed at 74¢ on Wednesday, September 2, 73¢ on Thursday, 69¢ on Friday, 68¢ on Saturday and 69¢ on Sunday, then opened Monday at 61¢ bid, 62¢ ask. About 1,071 contracts traded in the 24 hours, and roughly 1,040 of them were sellers hitting bids at an average near 64¢. Open interest, about 153,104 contracts, barely moved, which means those were holders transferring positions to new buyers at a lower price rather than new money piling in. No new money showed up on either side of the story: the favorite changed hands, it was not bought. There is real depth under the bid, about 580 contracts resting at 60¢ and another 100 at 58¢, which is why the favorite fell eight cents on a thousand contracts instead of 20.
- The Whole Board Re-Sums. On August 3 the raw prices summed to about 114¢ with almost all of the overround in the one-cent tail. On September 7 the mids sum to about 121.5¢, and the overround has migrated up the board: the favorite at 61.5¢, Dallas at 25¢, Philadelphia at 11¢ and San Francisco at 6.5¢ account for 104¢ between them before the 28 longshots add another 17.5¢. De-vigged against the mid sum, the crowd's fair read is roughly 51% stays-or-retires, 21% Dallas, 9% Philadelphia, 5% San Francisco and 14% everyone else. The panel's frozen blend is 93%, 3%, 1% and roughly 3% for the entire rest of the field.
The thing that did not change is the news. There is no reported trade, no reported negotiation, and no reported change in the Raiders' stance. What the market repriced on is a September of Cowboys speculation, and the record of it is short enough to list. On September 4, Heavy noted Dallas had restructured three contracts to open about $33M of cap room and paired that with Bleacher Report's "bold prediction" of a Crosby deal for edge rusher Rashan Gary, whom Dallas acquired from Green Bay on March 11, plus 2027 and 2028 first-round picks, while pointing out that Dallas had refused to offer two firsts in February. A day later, Cowboys On SI relayed FS1 host Danny Parkins' line that "September will be an audition for the rest of the league to show that Crosby is healthy", with Dallas "at the front of the line" if it goes well. Then on September 6, Last Word On Sports connected the two teams again, carrying the same Bleacher Report scenario and the Raiders Wire read that Las Vegas could revisit a deal if it is struggling in late October. Every one of those pieces is analysis or prediction, not a report of talks.
The sourced record cuts the other way, and it is older. On August 12, Cowboys On SI ran Mike Florio's version of the scenario, a deal at the Tuesday-after-Week-9 deadline only if the Cowboys contend and the Raiders do not. Two days later the same outlet quoted Dallas Morning News beat writer Joseph Hoyt pumping the brakes, calling a trade a "hard sell" and adding "from my understanding: I don't think that will happen," alongside Adam Schefter's read that a deal only comes back into play if the Raiders are, in his words, 1-5 or 2-6 heading into the deadline. The next day, August 15, Raiders general manager John Spytek told Pro Football Network "Right now Maxx is here and I have every expectation that he'll be here." And on July 31, Crosby himself told USA Today's Jarrett Bell, via Pro Football Talk, that the Cowboys chatter "doesn't change anything for me, to be honest." Those are the only on-record positions from anyone who would actually make the trade, and all of them point at the favorite.
So the honest description of the move is this: the crowd repriced a deadline trade from a longshot to something between 40% and a coin flip at the mid, with Dallas alone at about one in five, on the strength of a cap restructure in Dallas and a television "audition" framing, ahead of a single snap. The audition starts Sunday, September 13, when the Raiders host the Dolphins at 4:25 p.m. ET. Every week Crosby looks like himself makes the "healthy enough to trade" half of the speculation stronger, and every Raiders win makes the "struggling enough to sell" half weaker, which is why this board is going to keep moving on results, not reports, until November 10. The panel's numbers, generated before any of it, stay where they were; the graded question is whether the crowd was right to move.
Stays With Las Vegas: The Outcome Both Sides Back
Every model made the stay-or-retire contract the favorite, and none put it below 91%. The case is structural and, on the record, still current. Crosby practiced with the Raiders all camp, the one trade that got close died on his physical, moving him carries roughly $64M in dead money, and the general manager said in mid-August he expects Crosby to be there. The one caution on the record is that the Raiders also said he would not be traded in October 2025, then agreed to trade him five months later.
Full camp participant, Raiders told him he won't be dealt, ~$64M dead cap, and a trade already collapsed on his physical, leaving only a thin Dallas-led deadline tail. — Fable
DeepSeek, the most confident seat at 95%, was blunter, calling the $64.1M dead-cap penalty and the Raiders' firm post-physical commitment enough to make a trade "prohibitive," with "no credible signal he leaves." The revision round is where the honesty shows. Sonnet started as the low seat at 88% and moved up after reading the others:
Revised the stay/retire outcome up toward the panel median given unanimous, independent evidence, the dead cap, the no-trade stance, the healthy camp, and the failed physical, and trimmed the Dallas, Baltimore, and Philadelphia tails since no confirmed deal exists. — Sonnet
That is the gap between a 93% blend and a 61-cent price in one sentence: not that a trade is impossible, but that every fetched fact points the same way, and the crowd is now paying a considerably larger rumor premium than it was in August. Whether that premium was foresight or froth is exactly what the graded result will show.
Dallas: The Only Trade Thread With A Pulse, And Now A Price
If there is a live trade story on this board, it is the Cowboys, and the market has stopped treating it as a footnote. Dallas was about 6 cents on August 3, floated as "new trade hope" for Crosby while ESPN listed him among 2026 trade-deadline candidates. It is 23¢ bid, 27¢ ask now, after the overnight wave described above. The panel did not dismiss Dallas in August: every seat gave it a real, non-zero number, blending it to about 3%, on the logic that "most-discussed" is not "in progress." That logic has not been contradicted by any report since. What has changed is that the crowd is now paying roughly eight times the panel's number for the Cowboys, and the reason it gives, a September audition ahead of a deadline deal, is a scenario with a calendar attached: Crosby has to look healthy through September and October, the Raiders have to be out of it, and Dallas has to be in it, all before November 10. The dead-cap cost does not shrink just because Dallas is the suitor, and Dallas refused to pay two firsts for him in February. If this trade happens, it happens late, and the market is pricing that lateness at about one in five once the spread comes out.
Dark Horses The Panel Won't Dismiss
Below the favorite and Dallas, the board was a list of contingencies in August, teams that would only matter if a trade materialized. No model singled any of them out with a bold number, which was itself the finding. The September book ranks them more sharply than the August candlesticks did:
- Philadelphia sits second among destinations at 9¢ bid, 13¢ ask, up from about 4 cents on August 3 and 2 cents on Sunday, blended to roughly 1% by the panel. It remains a recognizable contender name in the rumor cycle, not a reported deal, and the September 7 buying was the first real volume it has seen since a 6,000-contract day on August 12.
- San Francisco is the new name on the board. It was a one-cent listing when the panel scored the field and drew no individual number; it is now 5¢ bid, 8¢ ask on about 4,100 contracts in a day, the busiest suitor after Dallas by volume. Nothing on the record connects the 49ers to Crosby in September; the price is the crowd buying a second destination in case the first one is wrong.
- Baltimore was the most interesting one-cent longshot on the board in August, because it is the team whose trade for Crosby actually got agreed before dying on his physical. Five of the six seats kept a small Baltimore tail alive on that "unfinished business" logic; DeepSeek alone wrote it down to a tenth of a point. The crowd has not: Baltimore is 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, and did not trade in the overnight wave.
- The Rest Of The Field, from Denver to Kansas City to the Rams, are longshot listings at or near the exchange's one-cent floor, with Chicago, Cleveland and Seattle a cent higher at 1¢ / 2¢. The panel handed the entire 28-team remainder about 2.6% combined, not to any single team.
The takeaway on the dark horses has changed since August. Then, the honest thing to say was that there were no live dark horses, only a suitor board that would matter if a trade came together. Now the crowd has decided a trade is plausible enough to price a second and third suitor, and it is doing so ahead of any reporting that names either one.
The Traps: Rows That Look Like Signal But Are Not
Transparency matters more than a clean story, so here is where the table would mislead you:
- A Destination Is Not A Deal. Dallas at 23-27 and Philadelphia at 9-13 are the market's suitor pricing, not evidence of an active trade. Neither team has a reported agreement, and the small model numbers next to them are the panel's read on a trade even happening, not on which team wins one.
- The Last Print Is Not The Level. Dallas last traded at 29¢, above its own 27¢ offer, printed as high as 38¢ an hour earlier, and Seattle's last print is 3¢ against a 1¢ / 2¢ book. When a buyer sweeps through resting offers, the last trade records where the sweep ended, not where the next contract will trade. Quote the bid and the ask, and when they disagree with the last print, trust the book.
- "Stays Or Retires" Is One Outcome, Not Two. The favorite contract quietly folds retirement in with staying a Raider. If you read it as only "stays," you are underselling what makes it hit, though for a healthy edge rusher in his prime, retirement is the smaller half of that bundle.
- A One-Cent Price Is Not The Same As Zero. The floor names are not measured 0% chances; they are thin-market prices on scenarios the exchange still lists. Do not read a real signal into a 0.1% blend row.
For how a receiver version of this board played out, see the Stefon Diggs next team verdict.
How To Read These Prices
The models can tell you where they part from the crowd, but the number in front of you still has to be understood in context. Here is how to read a market like this one, plus the honest friction of a shallow, event-driven board.
Work an example. Say the stay-or-retire contract shows a 62-cent YES offer. Taken at face value, that implies about a 62% chance Crosby opens December a Raider or retired. To get a fair, spread-free read you normalize the whole field so every outcome's price sums to 100. This board's mids sum to about 121.5 cents, so de-vigging pulls the favorite down, to roughly 61.5 ÷ 121.5, or about 51%. That is the number to compare against, and it makes the panel's gap even wider: the models are at 93% against a fair-value price near 51%. Run the same arithmetic on Dallas and 25 cents at the mid becomes about 21% fair; on Kalshi's fee schedule a 27-cent contract also costs roughly 1.4 cents in fees, so a Dallas YES bought at the offer costs about 28.4 cents per contract all-in and a dollar returns about $3.52 if it pays, not the $3.70 the raw price implies. The lesson holds generally, always check what a fair version of a price looks like before comparing it to anything, because a crowded tail can quietly inflate the raw cents. That habit is the whole idea behind converting Kalshi's cents into real odds before comparing anything.
Comparing a number to its fair value is the same discipline as shopping a game line. OddsShopper's live odds screen, which shops the number across every major book, and our free expert picks cover the NFL game slate rather than a transaction market like this one, and every number here lands in the same back-tested Model Verdict ledger as our 2027 Pro Football champion model verdict.
A few honest points before reading too much into any number in the table above:
- Eligibility. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, not a sportsbook. You must be 18 or older and located in an eligible state, and availability varies by state and can change.
- Liquidity And Spread. The board is deeper than it was in August but still shallow below the favorite: the Dallas bid is five contracts at 23¢ and the offer is ten at 27¢, and most of the field sits at 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask. Getting in or out at your number is not always possible, and a few hundred contracts can move a suitor several cents, as the overnight tape showed.
- A Moving Story. This is a live NFL situation with the Raiders' opener on September 13 and a November 10 trade deadline ahead; every Raiders result and every Crosby snap can move it. The model estimates reflect only what was known on August 3, 2026; the prices reflect the morning of September 7, 2026, and will refresh during the next rumor wave.
- Not Advice. Everything here is analysis for information, not a recommendation to trade.
The Bottom Line
The market and the models are looking at the same NFL situation and landing on the same favorite with a gap that has widened, not closed. Kalshi prices "Stays with Las Vegas or Retires" at 61¢ bid, 62¢ ask, down from about 70¢ a month ago, and has walked Dallas from 6¢ to a 23-27 book, Philadelphia to 9-13 and San Francisco to 5-8 in the hours before Week 1, all on a cap restructure, a "September audition" framing on television, and a Bleacher Report prediction, with no report of talks anywhere. The panel, scored price-blind on August 3, blends the favorite to about 93%, reading the healthy camp, the prohibitive dead-cap cost, the collapsed deal, and the on-record positions of the general manager and the player as close to settling the question. The read to take is not that a Crosby trade is off the table, because the deadline is nine weeks away, Dallas has the cap room, and star edge rushers do move. It is that on September 7, 2026, the crowd repriced a deadline deal from a longshot to roughly a 40-to-50% proposition before a single snap, with Dallas about one in five, and the two-sided book, not the overnight prints, is where that conviction actually sits. If this method is your thing, our 2027 Pro Football champion model verdict and our guide to Kalshi versus Polymarket are the natural next reads.
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Verdicts generated August 3, 2026. Prices as of September 7, 2026. Panel: Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, GLM, Kimi, and DeepSeek, price-blind, after one revision round. Model estimates, not advice.
Prices on this page are Kalshi's book. If you also trade on Polymarket, code OS4 gets new users a $50 trading bonus on a $10 deposit — affiliate link; terms as stated by Polymarket; 18+, availability varies by state.
