NFL Next Team Odds: Player Movement Prediction Markets
Sportsbooks mostly stopped hanging player-movement props years ago; the event exchanges picked the market up and ran with it. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, currently lists thirteen live "next team" boards on NFL players, one contract per possible destination, and together they cover everything from a superstar edge rusher whose board has matched about 2.8 million contracts to a rookie quarterback board nobody has traded yet. This page is the index: every live NFL movement board, what it prices right now, and the link to our full model-verdict deep dive wherever our AI panel has scored one. Bookmark it; the boards churn all season.
The Quick Answer
Thirteen NFL players have live next-team boards on the exchange right now. The two with real drama: Maxx Crosby, whose stay-in-Las-Vegas contract trades at just 64.5 cents on about 2.8 million contracts of volume (our full Crosby verdict), and Tyreek Hill, unsigned in August, whose return-to-Miami contract is the board favorite at only 37.5 cents with Kansas City next at 15. Nine of the remaining boards are stay-shaped near-locks at 89 to 99 cents, including Aaron Rodgers at 94.5 cents to be a Steeler (our full Rodgers verdict). The full board-by-board rundown is below.
Free: The Weekly PM Market Brief — the panel's graded record, the week's biggest market-vs-model gaps, and what's spiking next. Several of these boards settle September 1; the Brief is where the graded results land. Free, Sundays. The signup box is at the bottom of this page.
New to event markets? How to bet NFL on Kalshi covers the exchange mechanics; this page is the player-movement layer. Prices below refresh on our standard market-pulse cycle through the preseason news wave, with the as-of stamp carrying the evidence.
The Board
Every live NFL next-team board, its current favorite, and where to read the full analysis. Prices are exchange quotes as of August 7, 2026, 15:20 UTC.
| Player | Board favorite right now | Price | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maxx Crosby | Stays with Las Vegas or retires | 64.5¢ | Crosby model verdict |
| Tyreek Hill | Returns to Miami | 37.5¢ | below |
| Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh | 94.5¢ | Rodgers model verdict |
| T.J. Watt | Pittsburgh | 89.5¢ | below |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | Stays with the Giants or retires | 68¢ | below |
| Stefon Diggs | Washington (signed Aug 5) | 99.5¢ | below |
| Davante Adams | Stays with the Rams or retires | 96.5¢ | below |
| Kyle Pitts | Stays with Atlanta or retires | 96¢ | below |
| Alec Pierce | Stays with Indianapolis or retires | 96¢ | below |
| Rashid Shaheed | Stays with Seattle or retires | 95¢ | below |
| Joe Burrow | Stays with Cincinnati or retires | 98.5¢ | below |
| Josh Allen | Stays with Buffalo or retires | 98.5¢ | below |
| Brendan Sorsby | No favorite yet (untraded rookie board) | — | below |
Where an AI-blend number appears on this page it comes from our stored panel runs on that player's board. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
More live movement boards from the same panel: Steph Curry next team · Kawhi Leonard next team · Connor McDavid next team
Hottest Prediction Markets Right Now
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · $168M traded
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? · $57M traded
- 2027 Pro Football Champion · $54M traded
- Pro Baseball Champion · $45M traded
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? · $31M traded
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026 · $30M traded
Every market above links to our full AI model verdict; browse them all on the OddsShopper prediction markets hub, and see how every settled call actually scored on the full graded scoreboard.
How These Boards Settle
Each board lists one contract per destination, and each contract asks the same question: is this team the player's next team before the board's deadline? Signing counts however it happens, trade, free agency, or a rookie landing with a club. Most of the thirteen boards settle by December 1, 2026, but not all: the Davante Adams and Joe Burrow boards expire September 1, 2026, Brendan Sorsby's runs to September 15, Tyreek Hill's to December 31, and Josh Allen's stretches all the way to September 2027. A player who makes no move before the deadline settles the "stays or retires" contract Yes where the board lists one. The deadline differences matter: a 96-cent "stays" price on a board with three weeks left is a different claim than the same price with four months left.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange; 18+, availability varies by state as of August 2026.
How To Read A Movement Board: A Worked Example
Take the Crosby board, since it is the deepest one live. A contract that trades at 64.5¢ pays $1 if it settles Yes, so the price reads directly as an implied probability: the market says roughly a 64.5% chance Crosby stays in Las Vegas or retires. Dallas at about 10¢ is an implied 10%, Chicago at 4¢ is 4%, and the long tail of half-cent contracts rounds to under 1% each. Two habits keep the read honest. First, sum the board: if the listed midpoints add to well over 100%, thin books are inflating the tail; the live two-sided quotes carry the information, and stale last-trade prints do not. Second, check volume and open interest before calling any price change a move; on a book with no trades, a 2-cent bid shift is one market maker re-quoting, not news. A contract heads to Yes once its team becomes the player's next team, though the exchange settles only after it verifies the move, which is why a signed player's contract can trade at 99.5¢ for a day or two before it pays. The stay-shaped contracts settle Yes at the deadline if no move ever comes.
Maxx Crosby: The Biggest Board, And The Least Settled
About 2.8 million contracts have matched on Crosby's board, more than the other twelve combined, and it is the only veteran board where the stay side trades in the sixties: 64.5 cents to stay in Las Vegas or retire, with Dallas the top listed destination around 10 cents and Chicago, San Francisco, and Philadelphia behind it on active books. Our panel scored this board price-blind and landed higher on the stay side than the market, fading every named destination; the full seat-by-seat table and the reasoning are in the Crosby model verdict. The market has drifted since we ran it, which is exactly why the deep-dive page carries a dated stamp.
Tyreek Hill: Unsigned In August
Hill is the board where the question is still fully open. Miami released him after the 2025 season, and as of this writing he has not signed anywhere; Bleacher Report's August 6 read named Baltimore and Kansas City as the logical suitors after Washington filled its receiver need. The exchange agrees on the shape but not the certainty: a return to Miami is the favorite at just 37.5 cents (an implied 37.5%), Kansas City trades at 15 cents for an implied 15%, and San Francisco, Las Vegas, Baltimore, and New England all hold live single-digit books. His board runs to December 31, the longest deadline of any open veteran board except Josh Allen's, so a training-camp injury anywhere in the league can reprice it overnight. This is the one NFL movement board where the biggest contract is truly mid-priced, and it is the board on this page where movement is most likely to show up this month.
Settled This Week: Stefon Diggs
Diggs signed a one-year deal with Washington on August 5, up to $12 million per the Washington Post, and his Washington contract now sits at 99.5 cents awaiting settlement. One note for the graded record: our panel's last run on this board, three seats on August 4, the day before the signing, already had Washington as its top pick at 27% against a wide-open field. The market got there a day later. Every run like that lands in the full graded scoreboard once the board settles.
The Quarterbacks: Three Locks And A Blank
The quarterback boards are stay-shaped. Joe Burrow's Cincinnati contract and Josh Allen's Buffalo contract both trade at 98.5 cents, with every away destination at a cent or two on thin books; Burrow's board expires September 1, while Allen's runs to September 2027, which is the only reason his has any residual at all. Aaron Rodgers is the interesting one: Pittsburgh at 94.5 cents rather than 99, because his board keeps a real "Retires / No Team" contract alive. Our seven-seat panel put 94.3% on Pittsburgh and 4.6% on the retirement line, within two points of the market on both; the Rodgers verdict page has the full board and the one precedent every seat priced into the tail. And then there is Brendan Sorsby's board, listed through September 15 with every contract asked at a cent or two and essentially nothing traded: an index entry today, a story only if draft-season noise arrives early.
The Rest Of The Board
T.J. Watt is the quiet cousin of the Crosby board: Pittsburgh trades 87-92 cents, with New England's last trade at 15 cents sitting on a book now asked at 7. Kayvon Thibodeaux runs the next-loosest book after Hill's and Crosby's: 68 cents to stay a Giant, with Baltimore around 17 cents, an implied 17%, and the Rams and Saints holding live books behind it. Davante Adams (96.5 cents to stay a Ram, on a board that expires September 1) is priced as a done story on a short clock; Kyle Pitts (96 cents Atlanta), Alec Pierce (96 cents Indianapolis), and Rashid Shaheed (95 cents Seattle) are priced the same way with December deadlines. One honesty note that doubles as a lesson in reading these boards: on the thinnest contracts, the last-trade print can be months stale. Pitts's Denver contract shows a 69-cent last trade against a book currently bid zero and asked at 4 cents; the ask is the real information, the print is a fossil. Where this page quotes a price, it is a live two-sided quote unless labeled otherwise.
Settlement Timeline
| Date | What settles |
|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | Davante Adams and Joe Burrow boards expire |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Brendan Sorsby board expires |
| Dec 1, 2026 | Crosby, Rodgers, Watt, Thibodeaux, Diggs, Pitts, Pierce, Shaheed boards expire |
| Dec 31, 2026 | Tyreek Hill board expires |
| Sep 1, 2027 | Josh Allen board expires |
This page re-scores when the story moves: a signing, a trade, or a cut on any listed player triggers a refresh, and the as-of stamp above is the evidence of the last one.
The Bottom Line
Player-movement markets are the purest news-trading product the exchanges list: one headline settles the whole board. Right now the money prices nine of these thirteen boards as near-locks, leaves three open to a real degree (Hill at 37.5 cents, Crosby at 64.5, Thibodeaux at 68), and has not formed a view on the untraded Sorsby board at all. Crosby and Hill, the two with our deepest coverage and the biggest open interest, are the ones worth watching between now and the deadline dates above, and both of our deep-dive pages carry the panel's price-blind read for when the headline finally lands. Every number our panel puts on these boards gets graded in public once they settle; that record, win or lose, lives on the scoreboard.
To be explicit: the numbers on this page are exchange prices and model estimates, not betting advice and not a prediction of what any player will do. Markets move; the timestamps above say when these numbers were true.
