Navi Pillay won the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize on Friday, October 9, and she was not one of the 50 names on Kalshi's board. Every contract settled No. Seven AI models that priced this board in August without seeing a single price put a 60% chance on exactly that outcome: the name read out in Oslo would be one with no Kalshi contract. It was.
Donald Trump is where the money was. His contract carries 54% of everything this board ever traded, 3.06 million of 5.68 million contracts, and 1.44 million of those printed in the last three days before the announcement, all but 1,551 seller-initiated contracts a buyer paying 1 cent. It settled No at 1 cent. The panel's 1.5% was too generous as well, by less.
The panel's biggest number belonged to nobody on the board, and that is who won. Kalshi listed 21 candidates when the panel ran, 39 at this page's October 6 stamp, and 50 after it added 11 more at 7:20 p.m. Eastern on Thursday, October 8, less than ten hours before the announcement. Pillay was on none of those lists, nor on Polymarket's 70 named rows, nor on either of PRIO's shortlists, nor in oddschecker's September 29 survey of the British books, and no eligible nominator had publicly claimed her. The Norwegian Nobel Committee says 287 people and organizations were nominated. The panel's median call, priced against the August board and never re-run on the 29 rows added since, was a 60% chance that the winner would be one of the 266 it could not see. The settled board, and the night the market spent chasing the wrong name, are below.
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The Board
Every contract on the board when it closed, plus the outcome with no contract. The Kalshi column is the last trade before 11:00 in Oslo on October 9, one second before the announcement, followed by how the contract settled; a contract costing 30 cents paid a dollar if it hit, so the price reads directly as the market's percentage. "Panel" is the median of the seven models after their revision round, priced on August 23 and held fixed since. The rows Kalshi added in September and October were not on the board the panel priced, so they carry no panel number.
| Candidate | What it is | Kalshi, last trade before 11:00 Oslo | Panel |
|---|---|---|---|
| No listed candidate wins | off-board outcome, none of the 21 August names | the result: Navi Pillay, never listed | 60.0% |
| Save Ukraine (Mykola Kuleba) | recovers abducted children | 30¢, settled No | 6.0% |
| Yulia Navalnaya | Russian opposition leader | 21¢, settled No | 3.0% |
| Sudan's ERRs (Emergency Response Rooms) | volunteer aid network, Sudan | 15¢, settled No | 10.0% |
| Ilham Tohti | imprisoned Uyghur economist, listed October 8 | 13¢, settled No | not priced |
| Save the Children | children's charity, London | 8¢, settled No | 5.0% |
| International Court of Justice | The Hague | 5¢, settled No | 6.5% |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | emir of Qatar, listed September 15 | 4.5¢, settled No | not priced |
| UNRWA | UN Palestine refugee agency | 3¢, settled No | 5.0% |
| Sara Al-Saqqa | Gaza surgeon, listed September 15 | 3¢, settled No | not priced |
| World Central Kitchen (José Andrés) | chef's disaster-relief kitchens, listed October 8 | 2.8¢, settled No | not priced |
| Pope Leo XIV | the Vatican | 2¢, settled No | 0.5% |
| Doctors Without Borders | 1999 laureate | 2¢, settled No | 0.8% |
| International Criminal Court | The Hague | 2¢, settled No | 6.0% |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | press-freedom group, New York | 2¢, settled No | 4.8% |
| Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | Belarusian opposition leader, listed October 8 | 2¢, settled No | not priced |
| Mark Carney | prime minister of Canada, listed September 15 | 1.8¢, settled No | not priced |
| Reporters Without Borders | press-freedom group, Paris, listed September 24 | 1.3¢, settled No | not priced |
| International Space Station partnership | PRIO's fifth entry since September 22, listed September 24 | 1.2¢, settled No | not priced |
| Parents Circle-Families Forum | bereaved Israeli and Palestinian families, listed September 24 | 1.1¢, settled No | not priced |
| Donald Trump | U.S. president | 1¢, settled No | 1.5% |
| Minneapolis | the city and its residents | 1¢, settled No | 0.2% |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | president of Ukraine | 1¢, settled No | 2.0% |
| Francesca Albanese | UN rapporteur on Palestine | 1¢, settled No | 2.0% |
| Narges Mohammadi | 2023 laureate | 1¢, settled No | 0.1% |
| Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue | private mediators, Geneva | 1¢, settled No | 1.0% |
| Elon Musk | Tesla and SpaceX | 1¢, settled No | 0.15% |
| Dario Amodei | Anthropic | 1¢, settled No | 0.15% |
| Aaja Chemnitz | Greenlandic member of Denmark's parliament, listed October 8 | 1¢, settled No | not priced |
| European Union | 2012 laureate | 1¢, settled No | 0.4% |
| António Guterres | UN secretary-general, listed October 8 | 1¢, settled No | not priced |
| UNHCR | UN refugee agency, 1954 and 1981 laureate, listed October 8 | 1¢, settled No | not priced |
| Sam Altman | OpenAI | 1¢, settled No | 0.15% |
| Daria Egereva | jailed Russian Indigenous-rights activist, listed October 8 | 0.9¢, settled No | not priced |
| Chow Hang-tung | Hong Kong human-rights barrister, listed September 24 | 0.8¢, settled No | not priced |
| Jimmy Lai | imprisoned Hong Kong publisher, listed October 8 | 0.8¢, settled No | not priced |
| Vanessa Nakate | Ugandan climate activist, listed September 24 | 0.7¢, settled No | not priced |
| International Committee of the Red Cross | three-time laureate, listed September 24 | 0.7¢, settled No | not priced |
| International Association of Judges | judges' body, Rome, listed September 24 | 0.6¢, settled No | not priced |
| Svalbard Global Seed Vault | seed bank, Norway, listed September 24 | 0.6¢, settled No | not priced |
| Concordis International | peacebuilding charity, London, listed September 24 | 0.4¢, settled No | not priced |
| World Trade Organisation | Geneva, listed September 24 | 0.4¢, settled No | not priced |
| Campaign to Stop Killer Robots | disarmament coalition, listed October 5 | 0.4¢, settled No | not priced |
| David Attenborough | broadcaster, oddschecker's fourth favorite on September 29, listed October 8 | 0.4¢, settled No | not priced |
| Greta Thunberg | Swedish climate activist, listed October 5 | 0.3¢, settled No | not priced |
| Matt Meyer | peace activist, listed September 24 | 0.3¢, settled No | not priced |
| International Peace Research Association | peace-research body, listed September 24 | 0.3¢, settled No | not priced |
| Shehbaz Sharif | prime minister of Pakistan | 0.2¢, settled No | 0.3% |
| Yad Vashem | Holocaust memorial, Jerusalem, listed September 24 | 0.2¢, settled No | not priced |
| Julian Assange | WikiLeaks founder, listed October 8 | 0.2¢, settled No | not priced |
| Hussam Abu Safiya | Gaza hospital director, listed October 8 | 0.2¢, settled No | not priced |
Every one of the 50 contracts traded, every one of them closed at 11:08 in Oslo, eight minutes after the name was read, and every one of them settled No at 11:38. The 11 rows Kalshi added on Thursday night are in the table because they were on the board when it closed; the panel never saw them, and the winner's name was not among them either.
Add the last trades together at 10:59:59 in Oslo, one second before the announcement, and you get 142 cents across 50 names. The prize can be shared by up to three laureates and has averaged 1.44 laureates over the last 25 awards, so read that way the market was saying the whole podium belonged to a name on the board, two cents short of all of it. The same sum was about 97 cents at this page's October 6 stamp and 85.7 cents at 7 p.m. Eastern on Thursday; everything above that arrived overnight, and the section below walks through it. On the 21 names the panel actually priced, the final sum was 100 cents, up from 71 on October 6.
The panel's version of the same sum was about 56 cents, against a podium worth 144 cents by the same 1.44-laureate arithmetic, next to a 60% chance that the winner was on none of the rows. Kalshi never offered a contract for that side. Polymarket did: its catch-all row, "any other person or organization," had traded $38,770 in its life against $32.3 million on the event, resolved Yes, and was relabeled with Pillay's name afterward. The panel's biggest number was buyable in one line, just not on the book this page prices, and almost nobody bought it.
The widest gap on a listed name at the end was Save Ukraine, 30 cents against a panel median of 6%, the market's favorite for the last hour of the board's life. The two courts the panel treated as one likely shared award, at 6.5% and 6.0%, closed at 5 and 2 cents; the committee gave the prize to a judge who has sat on both, and both contracts settled No, because the contracts were for the institutions and the citation named a person.
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: GPT 87% on 17,504 graded calls · Claude Fable 90% on 9,615 graded calls · Claude Opus 90% on 9,769 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 89% on 9,711 graded calls · Gemini 88% on 16,301 graded calls · GLM 84% on 5,842 graded calls · DeepSeek 85% on 5,637 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
Seven of the panel's eight seats ran this board; the eighth returned nothing and is excluded rather than patched. Every number on this page landed in our ledger the day it was generated and is graded against the October 9 announcement on the public model verdict scoreboard.
More live boards from the same panel: Ballon d'Or 2026 · Harry Kane 60¢ · Game of the Year 2026 · Grand Theft Auto VI 70¢. Prices fetched October 13, 2026; the Nobel board settled October 9.
What Moved Since October 10
Nothing on Kalshi, and that is the point of this stamp. The 50 contracts have been finalized since 11:38 in Oslo on Friday, and the exchange has not opened a 2027 board: its Nobel series still holds exactly two events, last year's and this one. Donald Trump's row ends where the table has it, 1 cent, settled No, with 54% of the 5.68 million contracts this board traded in its life. The grade is in as well. The seven August calls on the 21 original rows were checked against the settlement on the night of October 9, every one of those rows came back No, and the 60% on an unlisted winner is the only number on this page that the committee confirmed.
Polymarket moved twice, in opposite directions. By the morning after the announcement it had relabeled its catch-all row, "any other person or organization," with Pillay's name and resolved it Yes. Then on Monday, October 12, at 2:18 p.m. Eastern, it opened a 2027 board with 16 names, every one of them a row that settled No in the table above. Trump leads at 9 cents, Yulia Navalnaya and UNRWA sit at 8, the Emergency Response Rooms at 7.25, Doctors Without Borders at 7, and António Guterres, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and the International Criminal Court at 6. Add them up and the 16 rows carry about 92 cents, and the new board has no off-board row at all, on a prize whose nominations do not close until January 31 and whose committee has just read out a name no board had listed. The panel has not been run on 2027, and this page's numbers stay the graded August set. When Kalshi lists a 2027 board, that is a new page, not an update to this one.
What Moved Since October 6
The board settled. At 11:00 on Friday, October 9, in Oslo, the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize to Navanethem "Navi" Pillay "for her efforts to promote peace and international law." Pillay, 85, defended Nelson Mandela and others who stood up against apartheid, sat on South Africa's High Court and, by the Nobel Institute's own account, was a judge and President of the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, a judge of the International Criminal Court, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights from 2008 to 2014, chair of the UN Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory from 2021 to 2025, and since 2019 an ad hoc judge of the International Court of Justice in the case in which Myanmar stands accused of genocide. She heard the news in Courtroom 600 of Nuremberg's Palace of Justice and told the room, "Being a lawyer and a judge, I still want to verify this." Kalshi's 50 markets closed at 11:08:29 Oslo time and every one settled No at 11:38. There was no Pillay contract to settle Yes.
The market spent the night before on a different name. At 7:20 p.m. Eastern on Thursday, Kalshi listed 11 new rows, David Attenborough and António Guterres among them, and still not Pillay. Ten minutes later Yulia Navalnaya, 5 and 6 cents all afternoon, began to print. Between 7:30 and 8:00 p.m. Eastern, 56,500 contracts traded on her row at a size-weighted 44 cents, 50,000 of them in the quarter hour after 7:45, and a 7-contract fill at 8:01 p.m. printed 72 cents, the highest price any row of this board had touched before Friday's final hour. On Polymarket the same hour took her from 5% to 54% and, per rg.org's tally, to a peak of 65.5% with $1.7 million bet on her. Kalshi had her back at 12 cents by 8:45 p.m., between 10 and 40 cents through the night, and up to a 55-cent print at 3 a.m. Eastern before sellers took her to 22 by 3:45. Navalnaya was 21 cents when the name was read, 361,000 contracts later, two-thirds of them buyer-initiated. She was not the only row that ran on nothing: Pope Leo XIV printed 39 cents on 35 contracts at 8:12 p.m. Thursday and was 2 cents by the morning, and Minneapolis went from 2 cents to a 229-contract fill at 38 cents at 2:45 a.m. Eastern, traded 52,700 contracts in three days, four-fifths of them buyer-initiated, and was back at 1 cent by 3:40. This page's precedent paragraph below describes the Machado leak of October 10, 2025, when a 3.75% contract went to nearly 73% in under two hours, hours before the committee read her name. This year's version of that chart pointed at the wrong name.
The last hour belonged to Save Ukraine, and then to everyone at once. Mykola Kuleba's row went from 10 cents at 7 p.m. Thursday to 16 at midnight Eastern and 29 by 10:00 in Oslo, with a 24-contract fill at 42 cents at 3:48 a.m. Eastern; it was 30 cents, the favorite, at 10:59:59. Then between 10:09 and 10:14 Oslo, buyers swept the offers on eight thin rows in a little over five minutes. The Emergency Response Rooms printed 42 cents, the International Court of Justice 46 cents on a 516-contract fill, the space station partnership 84 cents, World Central Kitchen 67, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya 43, Ilham Tohti 42, Save the Children 25, and Sara Al-Saqqa 91.9 cents. The size-weighted prices tell the other half: the space station sweep was 2,432 contracts at an average of 10 cents and the Al-Saqqa sweep 5,461 contracts at an average of 6.2, so the headline prints were the last few contracts of each stack, bought from offers nobody had bothered to pull. By 10:40 the space station row was back to 1.2 cents. That five minutes is why the sum of last trades reads 142 cents in the table.
The eight minutes after the name are their own footnote. From 11:00 to 11:08 Oslo, 7,752 contracts traded on the International Court of Justice row and 6,051 of them were buyer-initiated, at 1 to 3 cents, because the laureate sits on that court. The contract paid only if the court itself won, and it settled No. Save Ukraine traded from 29 cents down to 1, Navalnaya from 22 to 1, the Emergency Response Rooms from 16 to 1, 12,000 contracts between them, and then the board closed.
Donald Trump's row did what it had done all month, at a faster pace. From the October 6 stamp to the close, 1.44 million contracts printed on his row, 1,436,713 of them buyers paying 1 cent against 1,551 seller-initiated contracts, also at 1 cent; 878,621 of them printed on Thursday alone. His share of everything the board ever traded still fell, from 58% to 54%, because the other 49 rows traded 1.47 million contracts between them in the same three days. He settled No at 1 cent with 2.57 million contracts open.
The two court rows are where the award and the prices actually touch. The committee's citation puts it in two sentences: "The judges – those who guard the thin red line between order and chaos – are therefore highly deserving of our praise. But today, as these same judges are sanctioned, and their institutions are attacked, we need people of courage, vision and determination." Hours later Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced sanctions on the International Criminal Court as an institution, where Pillay sat from 2003 to 2008: "We will ban transactions with this rogue court, cutting off their resources and crippling its ability to operate," per Reuters. Israel's foreign ministry called the award "the grotesque weaponisation of an award to legitimise anti-Israel hatred and prejudice". The International Court of Justice contract closed at 5 cents against the panel's 6.5% and the International Criminal Court at 2 against 6.0%; the committee answered a sanctions regime with a judge from both benches, and both contracts paid nothing, because they named the institutions and the citation named a person. The settled board is above; the earlier edition's read of the week before, and the rows that carried the argument, follow.
What Moved Since September 30
The board traded more in six days than in its first eleven and a half months. From the September 30 stamp to this one, 1.47 million contracts changed hands on the Nobel board, against 1.31 million from the October 2025 listing through September 30. Donald Trump's row took 704,000 of them, and nearly all of it was buying: every contract that printed on his row on Sunday, October 4 and Monday, October 5, about 383,000 of them, went to a taker paying 1 cent. The price never moved, because the offer at 1 cent never ran out. Even so, his share of everything the board had traded fell from 70% to 58%, and his quote at the October 6 stamp was no bid, 1 cent offered, so the panel's 1.5% sat above the offer rather than inside the spread.
The September rows deflated, and the sum went with them. The 16 rows added in September carried 38 cents of price on September 30 and 18 on October 6; the two names listed Monday night add another 8, almost all of it one print of less than half a contract. Most of what came off was the names the bookmakers liked. Vanessa Nakate, the favorite at British books at 19/10 in oddschecker's September 29 survey, went 4.5 cents to 0.8 and has not printed above 2.1 cents since October 2. Mark Carney went 5.2 to 2.4, Sara Al-Saqqa 4.2 to 1.8, the Parents Circle 3 to 0.3, Concordis 3 to 0.2. The same survey had David Attenborough fourth at 15/2 with no Kalshi row at all, which is the title's 60% in one name; no fresher bookmaker line was fetched for this stamp. Most of it happened on Monday, October 5, when sellers hit nine of the September rows in the same session; 11,696 contracts traded on the Parents Circle row that day and every one of them went to a seller.
Doctors Without Borders gave back the whole argument. The row the panel priced lowest among the leaders, 0.8% against a 10-cent market, held 10 through Saturday, October 3, went 10 to 7 on Sunday after a 1,000-contract sale at 9 cents at 2:47 p.m. Eastern, traded between 2 and 7 on Monday, and was 3 cents on October 6, 3 bid and 4 offered. The gap in the market's favor, 9.2 points on September 30, was 2.2 points, and the only public argument for the move is the one in the record books below: two organizations have repeated in 125 years, and the market spent September pricing a 1999 laureate above the International Criminal Court, at twelve times what the panel gave it.
The space station is not a novelty row. On September 22, PRIO's acting director Haakon Gjerløw updated the institute's shortlist, the one public signal this page tracks, dropping the World Trade Organisation from the March list and adding the International Space Station; Kalshi listed both two days later, and the Associated Press ran the space-station case on October 2. The row went from no trade at all to 18,000 contracts, almost all of them since Sunday; a 24-contract buy at 3:43 p.m. Eastern on Monday printed 26 cents, the highest price on any row of this board since Kalshi added the September names, and the row was 5 cents on October 6, 3.9 bid, 4.8 offered, with 13,400 contracts open. The World Trade Organisation row, PRIO's March entry, got its real prints too, 7,400 contracts since September 30 and none above 2 cents, last 0.4: the market read the swap the way PRIO wrote it. The other two rows that had never traded printed as well. Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani traded 24,000 contracts from 1.9 cents down to 0.5, and the Svalbard Global Seed Vault traded 4,900 and sat at 0.6.
Two names arrived Monday night. At 6:30 p.m. Eastern on October 5, Kalshi listed Greta Thunberg and the Campaign to Stop Killer Robots as the 38th and 39th rows. Thunberg comes with the thing this page has been waiting for on other rows: a named, eligible nominator on the public record. Frøya Sjursæther, a Green Party member of the Storting elected in 2025 and one of the youngest members of parliament in Norway's history, nominated her for her efforts for Gaza, climate and indigenous peoples, according to Wikipedia's running list of public 2026 nominations. Her row had traded 1,700 contracts, all sold at 1 cent, plus a single print of less than half a contract at 6.8 cents just before 1 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday; the quote was 0.4 bid, 5.7 offered, so the 6.8 the October 6 table carried was a price nobody was paying that day. Killer Robots had traded 3,800 contracts, all at 1 cent, and was quoted 1.1 bid, 7.8 offered. The panel never saw either name, and both come out of its 60%.
The favorite had a loud week and ended a point lower. The Emergency Response Rooms traded 110,000 contracts, 33,000 of them on Sunday alone, when the price fell from 17 to 11 and closed the session at 14; it was 15 on Monday and 16 on Tuesday morning, October 6, 15 bid, 16 offered, six points over the panel. Save Ukraine printed 11 on Monday and was back at 9; the International Criminal Court touched 9 the same day and was 5; the International Court of Justice went 6 to 5 after printing 8; the Committee to Protect Journalists went 5 to 6 after printing 7 on Tuesday morning. UNRWA went 3 to 2, three points under the panel's 5.0% and at that stamp still the widest gap in the panel's favor on the board. Pope Leo XIV went 3 to 1 on 65,000 contracts, 35,667 of them on October 1. Nobel week opened Monday with the medicine prize; the committee had said nothing, the announcement was three days away, and the biggest single move of the week was a 24-contract print on a space station.
Donald Trump: Most Of The Money, Almost None Of The Price
The nomination record behind him is real, dated and wide, and the breadth is exactly what the panel discounted: a long list of nominators says a candidate is famous, not that five Norwegians will choose him. Representative Claudia Tenney nominated him on January 7, 2026, citing the Abraham Accords, and Representative Anna Paulina Luna nominated him for the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. Lithuanian lawmakers nominated him on January 30 alongside the American lawyer John Coale, for mediation that freed more than 300 political prisoners in Belarus.
Pakistan's prime minister Shehbaz Sharif announced two nominations of him, the first for the May 2025 India-Pakistan ceasefire, a premise India rejects: New Delhi maintains the halt came from direct talks between the two militaries with no foreign mediation.
Set against that is a message the committee cannot unread. In a note to Norway's prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre reported on January 19, 2026, Trump wrote: "Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America." He added: "The World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland." The message was first reported by PBS and confirmed by an official in the Norwegian prime minister's office.
The panel priced him at 1.5% in August, below the 4-cent market of the time, and the reasoning was the same in every seat. The Norwegian Nobel Committee gave the prize to Liu Xiaobo over Beijing's objection and to María Corina Machado over Caracas's, and a message tying peace to a territorial demand is a hard thing for five appointees of the Norwegian parliament to reward.
"He is certainly nominated and certainly famous, and I still have him at 2%, because five Norwegian appointees chose Machado over the Venezuelan state and Liu Xiaobo over Beijing." — Claude Opus
Why The Panel Said The Winner Wouldn't Be Listed
The proof arrived on October 9. Navi Pillay appears nowhere in the public nomination record this page tracked, on neither PRIO list, on none of Polymarket's 70 named rows, in no bookmaker survey, and on none of the 50 rows Kalshi listed, the last 11 of them the night before. That invisibility was the predictable part, and the mechanics below are why. Five people decide this, appointed by the Norwegian parliament: Jørgen Watne Frydnes as chair, Asle Toje as vice chair, Anne Enger, Kristin Clemet and Gry Larsen. They are the same five who chose Machado last October, which was the only directional read of this committee the outside world had. The nomination file stays sealed for 50 years.
The 287 figure is the committee's own, from its April announcement. Everything the public knows comes from nominators choosing to announce themselves, and fewer than 30 have. A candidate missing from the public list is not unnominated, and most of the public list is people publicising their own politics. Nominations closed on January 31, 2026, and committee members could add their own only up to the first meeting on February 26. A ceasefire signed in September changes the argument for a candidate; it cannot create one.
The One Public Signal, And Its Record
Each year the director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo publishes a personal shortlist, and it is the closest thing the outside world has to a read on the room. PRIO says the list is "not in any way based on privileged access to the decision-making of the Norwegian Nobel Committee", and its director abstains from nominating. PRIO published the 2026 list on March 18, under then-director Nina Græger, with five entries: Mykola Kuleba, who runs Save Ukraine, paired by PRIO with Save the Children; Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms; the World Trade Organisation; the Committee to Protect Journalists; and the International Court of Justice with the International Criminal Court. On September 22 its acting director, Haakon Gjerløw, published an updated list that keeps four of the five and swaps the World Trade Organisation out for the International Space Station partnership.
Its record is mixed. From 2014 through 2025 the list contained that year's laureate four times out of 12. It missed the Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet, Juan Manuel Santos, ICAN, the World Food Programme, Maria Ressa and Dmitry Muratov, the Bialiatski trio, Nihon Hidankyo, and Machado. The misses are not random, either. Juan Manuel Santos was a 2015 entry who won in 2016, and the Emergency Response Rooms are on the list for the second year running after not winning in 2025.
Four of the five March entries were tradeable on Kalshi when the panel ran, and the panel's data card carried the March list. The World Trade Organisation had no contract at all, and the space station had not yet been named. Kalshi listed both on September 24, two days after PRIO's update. The WTO row traded about 16,000 contracts in its life, never above 2 cents, and settled No from 0.4; the space station row printed 26 cents on October 5 and 84 cents for a moment in the last hour, and settled No from 1.2. Neither PRIO list carried Navi Pillay. That was the first crack in the board, and the arithmetic under the table is the second.
The Rows That Carried The Argument
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms: First On Both Lists, Finished Over The Panel, Settled No
The Emergency Response Rooms are neighbourhood volunteers running kitchens, clinics and evacuation routes inside a civil war that has been going since April 2023. They fit the committee's most-repeated recent instinct almost too neatly: ordinary people doing dangerous work in a catastrophe the world has stopped covering.
Every seat had them at or near the top of the listed names. The highest seat, at 12%, sat seven points under the 19-cent price in August; the price was as low as 4 cents in September, 16 at the October 6 stamp, 42 for a few seconds in the last hour, and 15 when the name was read, three points over that seat. Theirs was the third-deepest book on the board at the close, behind Trump and the Navalnaya row that passed it overnight, and it settled No.
"Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) represent the strongest listed candidate. They fit the archetype of local, non-violent civic action in a devastating, underreported war." — Gemini
The panel's problem with the price is confidence rather than fit. Nobody outside that room in Oslo had grounds to be 19% sure of anything in August, and a favorite this legible tends to get priced on how available its story is. At 15 cents when the name was read, the price was four points under where it started in August and five over the panel, and the panel's 10% was itself too high.
Shehbaz Sharif, Doctors Without Borders, And The Rows The Market Overpays
Sharif was the fifth-most-expensive name on the board in August at 6.7 cents and last traded at 0.2 cents before the announcement; it settled No. He is also, on the public record, a nominator rather than a nominee. A resolution in Pakistan's Punjab Assembly called for nominating Sharif, army chief Asim Munir and foreign minister Ishaq Dar, but a provincial assembly asking for a nomination is not one. Nominations are secret, so nobody can say he was not nominated; what can be said is that no eligible nominator has publicly claimed him, and six of seven seats put him at or below 0.3%.
Two more rows carry the same shape for a different reason. Narges Mohammadi traded at 1 cent to the end; she won in 2023, and in 125 years no individual has won the Peace Prize twice. Only two organizations have repeated, the Red Cross three times and the UN refugee agency twice, which is the history behind Doctors Without Borders at 2 cents on the morning of the announcement against a panel median of 0.8%. For most of September the market paid a 1999 laureate more than it paid the International Criminal Court; it stopped in the first week of October, and both settled No.
The Cheap Rows The Panel Won't Dismiss
- International Court of Justice, 5¢ at the end, panel 6.5%. The panel's largest upward repricing of an August price, and the market closed the gap from 3 cents to a point and a half. The laureate sits on this court as an ad hoc judge; the contract was for the court, and it settled No. On PRIO's list, jointly nominated by Norwegian MP Even Eriksen with the ICC, and a PRIO shortlist entry five years running.
- International Criminal Court, 2¢ at the end, panel 6.0%. Same nomination, same logic, and four points under the panel by the close after the price halved from 6 cents in September, climbed back from 3 at this page's September 27 stamp, touched 9 on October 5 and faded to 2. The laureate was a judge of this court from 2003 to 2008; it settled No. Several seats treated the two courts as one likely shared award.
- Committee to Protect Journalists, 2¢ at the end, panel 4.8%. On both of PRIO's 2026 lists, with the 2021 press-freedom award as the template; the price crossed the panel's number on September 29, was 6 cents on October 6, and was back under it at 2 when the name was read.
- UNRWA, 3¢ at the end, panel 5.0%. Two points above the final price, the widest gap in the panel's favor at the October 6 stamp until the International Criminal Court's four points passed it on the last morning, and the seats split on why: its Gaza work as the cycle's most awardable humanitarian case, or its political entanglement as the reason a consensus-seeking committee picks something else.
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
The revision round mainly moved one number, and it moved a lot. In round one the seats put the no-listed-winner outcome anywhere from 32% to 70%. After reading each other, the median settled at 60%.
"Forecasters B and F made a compelling arithmetic case that I undervalued the 287-candidate unlisted field. Their observation that roughly half of the last six laureates would likely have been off-board on a market like this, combined with the WTO being off-board here, convinced me to raise my 'no listed candidate' probability from 45% to 60%. I subsequently lowered my top board choices, though I maintained ERRs as the strongest listed option." — Gemini
One seat barely moved at all, and said why.
"Held essentially everything. The strongest opposing argument is Forecaster D's audit of the last six laureates against a hypothetical board (three of six would have been unlisted), pushing toward 70 off-board; that is the same history I already used, and it ignores that this board is unusually broad and holds the four live PRIO entries." — Claude Fable
The whole debate sits between two seats. GLM, at 42%, trusts the breadth of the board. Opus, at 63%, trusts the committee's long habit of surprising it, and the median refused to split the difference by much.
What Would Have Moved These Prices Before October 9
Each contract paid if its candidate won, with the Nobel Foundation as the named source, and there was no single contract for an unlisted winner, so the panel's largest number was never something you could buy in one line. It is the number that came in.
Three things would have moved the case, and this page said so on October 6. A named eligible nominator publicly claiming a board candidate who had none: none arrived for Doctors Without Borders, Sharif or the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue, and none arrived for the winner either, whose name is absent from the public nomination record this page tracks. A real price on PRIO's fifth entry: the World Trade Organisation never traded above 2 cents, and the space station partnership's 84-cent print on Friday morning was 28 contracts at the top of a one-second sweep. And the third, below.
There is precedent for the last one. Just after midnight in Oslo on October 10, 2025, the price of María Corina Machado winning went from 3.75% to nearly 73% on Polymarket in under two hours, and later that morning the committee read her name. The committee's secretary, Kristian Berg Harpviken, told Norwegian broadcaster TV2 it was "highly likely it's espionage". An investigation supported by Norway's intelligence services, made public at the end of January 2026, concluded a cyberattack was the most likely explanation and could not say who. The Nobel Institute has since announced unspecified security reinforcements. A repeat would have made this board the most informative number in the world, too late to act on. The repeat came in shape and not in substance: Navalnaya's 6-to-72-cent night on Kalshi, and 5%-to-65.5% on Polymarket, looked like last year's chart and pointed at a name the committee did not read.
The board ended far less thin than it began. Thirty-six of the 50 rows closed with five-figure open interest, up from 27 of 39 on October 6 and nine on September 30, and all of it settled No.
The Bottom Line
The panel put the Emergency Response Rooms on top of the listed names and the market finished on Save Ukraine, and both were wrong in the same shape. They disagreed about the size of the room they could not see into, and on the morning of October 9 the panel was right: the name read out had no Kalshi contract, no named row on Polymarket, and no line at the books. The scoreboard carries the grade, in public, and the 60% that this board never offered is the number on it. The laureate, told in a Nuremberg courtroom that she had won, had the last word on the row that carried most of the money: "If you clap a little bit more I may share this prize with Trump."
Estimates generated August 23, 2026, price-blind, from a data card built the same day out of the Kalshi API, the Nobel Foundation's own records, the Norwegian Nobel Committee's publications and the public nomination record. Prices fetched October 13, 2026, from the settled board; the last trades quoted are from before the 11:00 Oslo announcement on October 9. Seven of the panel's eight seats ran this board, each revising once after reading the others' anonymized reasoning; the headline blend is the median of the seven revised numbers. Models are frequently wrong, and the market price reflects real traders' money.
Prices on this page are Kalshi's book. If you also trade on Polymarket, code OS4 gets new users a $50 trading bonus on a $10 deposit — affiliate link; terms as stated by Polymarket; 18+, availability varies by state.
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