Nobel Peace Prize 2026 Odds: The Full Field, Priced
Nine weeks before the Norwegian Nobel Committee steps to the podium in Oslo on October 9, its 2026 field is the strangest awards market on the exchange: 287 registered candidates, of which the public knows a self-selected handful, priced across 21 listed contracts that include a Sudanese volunteer network, a sitting American president with at least seven governments publicly nominating him, two AI executives, and the residents of Minneapolis. We handed the whole board to a seven-model AI panel, price-blind, with a card carrying the verified nomination record, the committee's mechanics, and the full laureate ledger back to 2020. Then each seat read the others' anonymized reasoning and could revise. The panel's verdict agrees with the market's favorite and disagrees with the market's arithmetic.
The Quick Answer
Seven price-blind AI models make Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms the top listed candidate at a 16.6% blend, twelve points below their 28.5-cent price. The panel's biggest number is not a candidate: it put 36.6% on the field, the chance the winner comes entirely from outside the 21 listed names, an outcome the exchange does not sell. The listed contracts' midpoints sum to roughly 102 cents; the panel says the listed names deserve about 63 combined. Elsewhere it pays Donald Trump 5.6% against his 3.5-cent price, holds Yulia Navalnaya at 6.1%, and puts real numbers on two contracts so thin they have never traded. The full 22-outcome board and the committee logic behind it are below.
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New to event markets? How to bet sports on Kalshi covers the exchange mechanics; this page is the Nobel layer. Prices refresh on our standard market-pulse cycle through announcement week, with the as-of stamp below as the evidence.
The Board
All 21 listed contracts plus the panel's field estimate. Four thin contracts have never matched a trade; the panel priced them anyway.
| Candidate | Kalshi | AI Blend (after revision) |
|---|---|---|
| Any unlisted winner (the field) | not offered | 36.6% |
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 28.5¢ | 16.6% |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 7.5¢ | 6.1% |
| Donald Trump | 3.5¢ | 5.6% |
| Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine | no trades yet | 5.1% |
| Doctors Without Borders (MSF) | 12.5¢ | 4.8% |
| UNRWA | 4.5¢ | 4.6% |
| International Criminal Court | 4.5¢ | 4.1% |
| Save the Children | 12.5¢ | 3.1% |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | no trades yet | 3.1% |
| International Court of Justice | 2.5¢ | 3.1% |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 4.5¢ | 2.8% |
| Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue | 4.5¢ | 1.9% |
| Francesca Albanese | 3.5¢ | 1.6% |
| Pope Leo XIV | 3.5¢ | 1.1% |
| European Union | 0.5¢ | 0.8% |
| Minneapolis (residents) | 3.5¢ | 0.7% |
| Shehbaz Sharif | no trades yet | 0.7% |
| Narges Mohammadi (2023 laureate) | 3.5¢ | 0.2% |
| Elon Musk | 1.5¢ | 0.2% |
| Sam Altman | no trades yet | 0.2% |
| Dario Amodei | 1¢ | 0.2% |
These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
More live boards from the same panel: TIME Person of the Year 2026 · Mamdani 28.5¢ · 2026 governor races hub · Nevada toss-up 53¢ · Ohio Senate special · Brown 52¢
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The Market
Each contract resolves YES if its candidate wins the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, announced October 9, 2026, 11:00 CEST. Because the prize can be shared by up to three laureates (2022 went three ways), more than one contract can pay in the same year, and there is no field contract for an unlisted winner. That last structural fact is where the panel planted its flag. Volume is as lopsided as the subject: Donald Trump's contract has matched about 606,000 contracts, more than the rest of the board combined; the favorite ERRs have matched about 36,000.
Two timestamps: panel verdicts were generated the early afternoon of August 7, 2026, price-blind; prices were fetched from the exchange at 12:30 UTC the same day. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange; 18+, availability varies by state as of August 2026.
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms: The Favorite, Faded
The panel's case for the ERRs as top listed pick was the most uniform argument of the run. Every seat reached for the same lineage:
"Locally organized mutual-aid networks sustaining civilians inside the world's worst and least-covered war are the direct heir to WFP 2020, the 2022 civil-society trio, and Hidankyo 2024: a sympathetic, low-controversy way to spotlight an ignored catastrophe, with a real public nomination." (Kimi K3)
So why 16.6% and not 28.5? Not doubt about fit; doubt about visibility. The committee's shortlist is secret, its taste for surprise is documented, and a favorite this legible is exactly the kind of candidate whose price reflects narrative availability rather than committee information. The fade is a statement about how much anyone can know in August, not about the ERRs.
The Field: The Biggest Number on the Board
Every seat made the field its anchor, and the reasoning was arithmetic, not vibes:
"FIELD at 0.36 is my anchor, not a hedge — the shortlist is secret, public nomination campaigns are self-selected noise, and the actual laureate frequently appears on no board." (Claude Opus)
The card's own ledger backs this: recent laureates like Nihon Hidankyo and Maria Corina Machado were not betting-board fixtures in August of their years. With 287 registered candidates and 21 listed, the listed board covers a thin, famous slice of the real distribution. The practical read for anyone pricing this market: the listed midpoints sum to about 102 cents, and the panel's answer for the same 21 names sums to about 63.
Donald Trump: The Volume Magnet, Repriced Upward
The panel put 5.6% on Trump against a 3.5-cent price, the board's only upward repricing of a famous name. The record is real: at least seven governments and officials have publicly announced nominations (Israel's Netanyahu delivered his letter in person; Pakistan announced twice, citing the India-Pakistan ceasefire and the Gaza agreement; Cambodia's PM followed the Thailand ceasefire; Azerbaijan, Rwanda, the DRC and a US congressman round out the public list). Against that, the seats held the committee's revealed pattern: since 2020 every laureate has been an activist, journalist, or humanitarian organization, not an incumbent leader. The panel read the nomination wave as real but non-predictive: nominations measure nominators, and the committee answers to neither volume nor campaigns.
Dark Horses The Panel Won't Dismiss
- Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine (no trades yet, blend 5.1%): the highest panel number on any contract without a price. Returning abducted Ukrainian children is a cause with a confirmed public nomination and a clean moral throughline; several seats ranked it top-five.
- Committee to Protect Journalists (no trades yet, blend 3.1%): the 2021 press-freedom template in a year when journalist deaths dominate the wire; a thin book hides a live candidacy.
- International Court of Justice (2.5¢, blend 3.1%): the institutional pick if the committee decides to defend international law itself; one seat put 4% or more on each of the two courts.
- UNRWA (4.5¢, blend 4.6%): the most direct Gaza-relief candidate; seats split on whether its political entanglement helps the case or kills it, which is what a real dark horse looks like.
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
The revision round ran the field debate in both directions. Gemini 3.1 Pro opened as the board's contrarian, with the ERRs at 20% ABOVE its field number (18%); after reading the room it doubled the field to 40% and wrote that public nominations are "merely a self-selected fraction" of the real list. Claude Opus arrived from the opposite pole, trimming a 55% field down to 36% after conceding the listed board's coverage of the plausible organizational winners was better than its first read. Grok 4.5 moved 30 to 36 the same way. The blend's field number barely moved between rounds; the panel's reasons for it converged from both sides, which is the more meaningful event.
Every Seat's Number
Top of the board only, after revision. On a phone this table scrolls sideways.
| Outcome | ChatGPT | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini 3.1 Pro | Grok 4.5 | Kimi K3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The field (unlisted winner) | 32 | 40 | 36 | 35 | 40 | 36 | 38 |
| Sudan's ERRs | 18 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 17 |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Donald Trump | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Kuleba / Save Ukraine | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: GPT 83% on 2,013 graded calls · Claude Fable 84% on 334 graded calls · Claude Opus 85% on 385 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 83% on 366 graded calls · Gemini 85% on 2,062 graded calls · Grok 80% on 1,888 graded calls · Kimi 83% on 2,099 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
Model estimates generated August 7, 2026, price-blind from live fetched data. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
Every number in this piece lands in our backtest ledger the day it is generated and gets graded against the October 9 announcement on the public model verdict scoreboard.
What Would Change The Panel's Mind
- A credible shortlist leak or PRIO/Nobel-watcher list update. The Oslo peace-research institutes publish director's shortlists in September; several seats named them as the one public signal with real information content.
- A major ceasefire holding into October. The committee has rewarded live diplomatic breakthroughs before; a durable Gaza or Ukraine settlement re-ranks the incumbent-leader tier overnight.
- New public nominations surfacing late. The 50-year secrecy rule means the public list only grows; a heavyweight civil-society name joining it would eat directly into the field's 36.6%.
- October 9, 2026, 11:00 CEST. The announcement settles all 21 contracts at once and grades this page.
Settlement Timeline
- September 2026 — Oslo research-institute shortlists publish; the market's traditional pre-announcement reprice window.
- October 9, 2026 — the announcement in Oslo settles every contract on this board.
- December 10, 2026 — the ceremony in Oslo; no market impact, but the story's second news wave.
- This page re-scores when the story moves; prices above are as of August 7, 2026, 12:30 UTC.
How To Read These Prices
- Eligibility. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, not a sportsbook. 18+, availability varies by state as of August 2026.
- No field contract exists. You cannot buy the panel's largest number. The tradable implication runs through the listed side: a board summing to 102 cents that the panel prices at 63 is a board where the panel thinks most listed contracts are rich.
- Thin books. Four contracts have never traded and several others have books under 5,000 contracts; quotes there are opinions, not depth. The revision-round caveat applies double on wide spreads.
- Not advice. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
The Bottom Line
The market and the panel tell the same story about the favorite and opposite stories about the board. Both make Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms the name to beat, the cleanest heir to the committee's decade of honoring civil society inside ignored catastrophes. But the market's 21 contracts collectively claim near-certainty that the winner is listed, and the panel, looking at 287 secret candidates and a committee with a taste for surprise, says there is better than a one-in-three chance the winner is someone nobody is trading at all. On October 9 one of them is right, and the scoreboard will say which in public.
Verdicts generated August 7, 2026, price-blind. Prices as of August 7, 2026, 12:30 UTC. Panel: seven of the panel's eight seats ran this board (ChatGPT, Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, Gemini 3.1 Pro, Grok 4.5, Kimi K3), each revising in an anonymized cross-read; the blend is the simple mean of the seven revised numbers. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
