The Quick Answer
Spain opens as the top price on Kalshi's new UEFA Nations League champion market at 29 percent, with France next at 26 and England and Germany level at 19. Portugal, which hosts Wales in Thursday's opening match, is fifth at 13, and Italy at 6 is the only other country priced above 1 percent. The draw put Spain and England in the same group, so two of the four priciest teams on the board have to get past each other before March. One caution before any of those numbers get used: the market opened this week and has traded $5,892 in total, so these are marks on a nearly untouched book.
The Numbers
| Outcome Or Figure | Number |
|---|---|
| Spain, Chance To Win The Tournament | 29% |
| France | 26% |
| England | 19% |
| Germany | 19% |
| Portugal | 13% |
| Italy | 6% |
| Ten Others (Netherlands, Norway, Serbia, Turkiye, Czechia, Greece, Belgium, Croatia, Denmark, Wales) | under 1% each |
| Total Traded On This Market, All Time | $5,892 |
Board prices per a Kalshi price chart and order book captured at 11:19 a.m. ET on Sept. 24, 2026. Team form and head-to-head per Goal.com's Sept. 24, 2026 match preview.
Spain Opens On Top At 29%
Spain's 29% is the last price anyone traded, and the live book behind it is nowhere near that tight: 23 bid against 39 ask by midday Thursday. A buyer who wants Spain today pays 39, not 29.
One thing has already gone wrong for Spain. Pedro Porro, its right back, withdrew from Luis de la Fuente's squad after picking up a fresh injury roughly 20 minutes into Tottenham's Premier League match against Aston Villa on Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026. The Royal Spanish Football Federation confirmed it hours later and called up nobody to replace him, leaving Spain with 25 players for the opener against England.
That pattern runs down the whole board. Portugal is marked 13% against an 8-to-53 quote, France 26% against a book with no bid at all and a 35-cent offer, Germany 11 to 15 and England 8 to 13. The percentages are trades that happened; the quotes are what a bettor can actually do right now.
Six Countries Carry A Price, Ten Barely Register
Behind Spain, France at 26%, England and Germany at 19% each and Italy at 6% round out the group priced above 1%. The other ten sit under 1% with Yes shares scraping three to six cents. Italy shows the same split as the rest: a 6% mark from an earlier trade, with Yes shares offered at four cents and no percentage showing on the order book.
The league phase draw in Brussels on Feb. 12, 2026 explains part of the pile-up. League A was split into four groups of four: France, Italy, Belgium and Turkiye in Group A1; Germany, Netherlands, Serbia and Greece in A2; Spain, Croatia, England and Czechia in A3; and Portugal, Denmark, Norway and Wales in A4. Group A3 alone contains the 29% and one of the 19s, so two of the four priciest teams on the board have to get past each other before March. The competition holds 16 nations in its top tier, and the board prices six of them above a penny.
Portugal Hosts The Opener And Sits Fifth On Its Own Board
Portugal is marked at 13%, with Yes at 14 cents and No at 92. Its last competitive match was a 1-0 loss to Spain in the World Cup quarter-finals; across its last five it has scored nine and conceded two, so that Spain result is the outlier. Head coach Jorge Jesus confirmed at his Sept. 23, 2026 pre-match news conference that Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo starts against Wales, with a warning attached. "If nothing special happens today, Ronaldo will start tomorrow," Jesus said, adding that Ronaldo's status does not guarantee him a place in every match. Group A4 is the reason the number is fifth and not second. Only the group winner and runner-up reach the knockout rounds, and Denmark and Norway are in the way.
Wales is one of the countries at under 1%, Yes shares at four cents, and the recent record does the explaining. Wales went out of World Cup qualifying to Bosnia and Herzegovina on aggregate and has not beaten a ranked side since, with draws against Ghana and Northern Ireland either side of a 2-1 friendly loss to Romania in June. Head coach Craig Bellamy named his squad on Sept. 15, 2026 for the Portugal and Denmark fixtures and flagged what the compressed format costs him. "Someone like Joe Rodon doesn't miss two games, he misses four, and that's a big blow," Bellamy said. The head-to-head is two meetings in recorded history, two Portugal wins, a clean sheet in each.
About The Numbers
On Kalshi a cent equals a percent, so a 29-cent Yes share reads as a 29% chance. The percentage each country shows is its last traded price, which on a new market can be hours or days old, while the bid and ask are live. Spain's 23-to-39 quote is the gap between what a buyer will pay and what a seller will take, and on this board that gap is wide everywhere. The $5,892 is total trading across the market's entire history, not a day's business, which is why the marks and the quotes sit so far apart. This contract pays on the champion, which is settled well after Thursday: group winners and runners-up play home-and-away quarter-finals March 25-30, 2027, and the four survivors meet at the Nations League Finals June 9-13, 2027. The team figures cover each side's last five matches as of Sept. 24, 2026, and the head-to-head covers every meeting on record.
