Prices as of 11:10 AM ET on Monday, September 7, 2026.
The Quick Answer
No contract on this board asks how long Tua Tagovailoa keeps the Atlanta starting job, so the closest read available is a market priced at 71 cents, or about a 71% chance, that he records 1500 or more passing yards in the 2026-27 regular season. That is a yardage question standing in for a job question, and it is the best proxy on offer. The price sat at 14% on Sunday, August 30, jumped to 50% on Monday, August 31, held there through Friday, September 4, then closed at 71% on both Saturday and Sunday. Zero contracts traded on it in the last 24 hours, so treat 71% as a standing quote rather than a number the market retested this morning.
The Numbers
| Outcome | Chance now | Change since yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa Records 1500+ Passing Yards | 71% | flat |
| Zachariah Branch Records 80+ Receiving Yards In A Single Game | 47% | flat |
| Bijan Robinson Records 100+ Rushing Yards And 100+ Receiving Yards In A Single Game | 17% | -19 |
| Atlanta Allow 0 Points In A Single Game | 16% | flat |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. Records 150+ Receiving Yards In A Single Game | 16% | flat |
| Drake London Records 200+ Receiving Yards In A Single Game | 13% | flat |
| Bijan Robinson Records 225+ Rushing Yards In A Single Game | 13% | flat |
| Bijan Robinson Scores 4+ Touchdowns In A Single Game | 11% | flat |
| Atlanta Throw For 400+ Yards In A Single Game | 0% | flat |
| Atlanta Records 8+ Sacks In A Single Game | 0% | flat |
Why 1500 Yards Is Really A Snap Count
The settlement rule reads: "If Tua Tagovailoa records 1500+ passing yards in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes." The market closes on January 18, 2027. Spread across a 17-game season, 1500 yards works out to about 88 yards a game, which is not a hard bar for anyone taking most of the snaps. At something closer to 200 yards a start, the bar arrives in the eighth game.
That is what makes this contract useful for the job question. A quarterback who holds the position into December clears 1500 without much drama. The realistic way to miss is to stop playing, whether that is a benching, an injury, or a trade. So the 29 cents on the No side is, in practical terms, the chance he does not get somewhere near seven or eight starts' worth of throwing. It is not a bet on Atlanta being a passing offense.
The Climb, And The Silence Behind It
Five straight days at exactly 50% is what a market with almost nobody in it looks like. A flat coin-flip price is usually a placeholder, not a read. The move to 71% on September 5 is the only real information event in the seven-day path, and it has not moved since.
Then look at where the activity went. Of roughly 137 contracts traded across the whole board in the last 24 hours, all 137 were on the Bijan Robinson 100 rushing and 100 receiving contract, which dropped 19 points to 17%. The Tua contract took none of them. About 3,084 contracts are open across the board and about 4,201 have traded since it opened, so this is a small market to begin with. A price nobody is trading against is a weaker signal than the same price in a busy market.
What Is Still In Doubt
Kalshi does not publish who moved a price or what they were reacting to, so the jump from 14 to 50 to 71 has no stated cause. I will not invent one.
I also cannot separate two different readings of that 71%. The contract text asks only about yardage, and trader intent is not public, so a buyer could be pricing job security, expected passing volume, or both. The source set here carries no depth chart, no coach quote, and no injury report, and there is no contract anywhere on this board that names the starting job directly. Anyone who wants a number on how long Tua Tagovailoa starts is reading it off a yardage line, with all the slack that implies.
About The Numbers
Every price here comes from one Kalshi market, the Atlanta: Team Specials board, quoted at 11:10 AM ET on Monday, September 7, 2026, with the change column measured against the previous day's close. Read a single row like this: 71 cents means the market prices that outcome at about a 71% chance, and a contract that settles Yes pays out one dollar. The chance column can add up to well past 100 because these are ten separate yes-or-no questions about the same team, not slices of one pie, so a total above 100 tells you nothing. One caution on the Bijan Robinson 100 and 100 row: the price table gives yesterday as 36% while the seven-day close path gives Sunday, September 6 as 18%, so the exact size of that drop is unsettled in the source. The Kyle Pitts Sr. row has a smaller version of the same issue, a flat 16% in the table against a 14% to 16% range in the path. None of that touches the Tua contract, which reads 71% in both places.
