Prices as of 1:45 PM ET, Thursday, September 10, 2026. Trade data from the Kalshi public trade feed; sportsbook odds and betting splits from DraftKings' published splits table.
At 1:44:30 AM Eastern on Tuesday, September 8, 2026, one Kalshi order bought 29,518 contracts of "Pittsburgh wins by over 3.5 points" at 49 cents, sixteen fills in the same second. On Kalshi a price in cents is a probability, so the buyer paid a 49% price, about $14,500, for the Steelers to beat Atlanta by four or more on Sunday. It is the largest single spread order on any Sunday game this week, and it landed in the middle of the night five days before kickoff.
It was not alone. By Thursday afternoon 46,390 contracts had traded on that rung in three days and 91% of them were buys. The Steelers moneyline took two identical 7,736-contract buys at 63 cents, one at 11:32 PM Tuesday and one at 9:11 PM Wednesday, which reads like one account coming back for a second helping. And at DraftKings the money went the same way with a twist: 87% of the spread money on Pittsburgh -3.5, and 95% of the money on the total on the under 42.5, the most lopsided total on the entire Week 1 board.
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The Board
As of 1:45 PM ET, September 10 (Kalshi, cents = probability; DraftKings alongside):
| Outcome | Kalshi | DraftKings |
|---|---|---|
| Steelers win | 62–63¢ | -185 |
| Falcons win | 37–38¢ | +154 |
| Steelers win by over 3.5 | 48–49¢ | Steelers -3.5 (-112) |
| Over 42.5 total points | 47–49¢ | Over 42.5 (-105) |
The spread row is where the exchange beats the book. DraftKings' -112 on Pittsburgh -3.5 is a 52.8% price; Kalshi's 49-cent ask is 49, nearly four cents cheaper before a fee of under two cents a contract. The 2 AM buyer got that same side at 49 five days out. Kickoff is Sunday, September 13, at 1 PM ET at Acrisure Stadium.
Sixteen Fills In One Second
Kalshi does not publish who is behind an order. What the tape shows is one market order at 1:44:30 AM sweeping sixteen resting offers at 49 cents, which is how a large buy fills when it takes everything available at one price. Tuesday's full day on that contract was 33,514 contracts, 99% of them buys, and the price went from 48 to 50 and settled back to 49. Wednesday brought 8,361 more, split closer to even, and Thursday was quiet.
The moneyline flow matches. 69,577 contracts of "Pittsburgh wins" traded in three days, 93% bought, and the two 7,736-contract prints at 63 are the biggest of them. The Falcons side traded 22,146 contracts, 88% bought as well, which is normal on Kalshi, where the crowd buys both teams and market makers sell; the tell is the size, and the size is all on Pittsburgh. The Steelers' price held at 63 through all of it, so whoever is offering Pittsburgh at 63 and Pittsburgh -3.5 at 49 has not needed to raise either number.
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Ninety-Five Cents Of Every Dollar On The Under
The total is the stranger market. At DraftKings, 63% of the total tickets and 95% of the total money are on the under 42.5. Ninety-five percent of the money on one side of a total is a number you see a few times a season, and it usually means a handful of very large bets rather than a consensus. The book has not moved off 42.5, and the over is still -105, which is the book saying it is comfortable holding the under money at that number.
On Kalshi the same contract, "over 42.5 points," has barely traded: 3,898 contracts total, 47 bid, 49 ask. The exchange's version of the under, the no side, costs about 53 cents, which is the same price as DraftKings' -115 once you convert it. So the two venues agree on the total and disagree on nothing; the book just has a great deal more money riding on one side of it. My picks page on this game has no side and no total; the 2 AM buyer and DraftKings' under money have both. And the same week's tape produced a different Pittsburgh story: my colleague Jake Hari has the nine-win contract someone sold in size Wednesday evening.
What Moves The Price From Here
- Friday's designations. Pittsburgh's receivers barely practiced in August; a Friday downgrade on either one is the first thing that would send the 49-cent spread contract back toward 45.
- The Falcons' quarterback. Atlanta named its starter Monday. The first snaps of the real thing Sunday, not the practice report, decide whether the 2 AM buyer read the game right.
- A second visit. The Steelers' moneyline took the same 7,736-contract buy two nights running. A third at 63 and the offer finally moves.
- Sunday, September 13, 1 PM ET. Every contract here settles on the final score at Acrisure Stadium.
Follow Dave on X: @Loughy.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Bijan Robinson photo by Atlanta Falcons, licensed CC BY 3.0; Aaron Rodgers photo by Cramerwiki, licensed CC0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
Prices quoted are live Kalshi market prices and DraftKings odds as of 1:45 PM ET, September 10, 2026, and will keep moving until these markets settle after the September 13, 2026 game. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state). OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst: any model or panel figures referenced are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Betting involves risk; contracts can go to zero. Must be 21+ to wager at a sportsbook. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
