Quick Answer
Three of 22 sides beat fair Monday: Cubs-Brewers NRFI -102, Cardinals-Giants YRFI +122 and Mets-Marlins YRFI +111. The Cubs lead, -102 against a true -107, on a staff allowing a first-inning run in 22.9% of its games. The full board is below.
Eleven MLB games carry a first-inning market Monday: a playable quiet side in Milwaukee, a San Francisco runs side where the lineup outran the park, and a Baltimore streak the price already owns.
The Cubs Have Allowed A First-Inning Run In 23% Of Their Games
Cubs At Brewers: Boyd Vs. Gasser, NRFI -102
That 22.9% is the lowest allowed-first rate of 22 clubs here, and Matthew Boyd has three straight clean firsts, eight of 10. Chicago's bats have scored in the first in five of their last 15 against Robert Gasser's seven clean in 10; Milwaukee has had a first-inning run in 10 of its last 15 games at a 55% park, though.
The trend read: -102 beats a true -107, the board's best edge at 2.2%.
Rogers Has Not Allowed A First-Inning Run Since May 24
Guardians At Orioles: Cantillo Vs. Rogers, NRFI -120
Seventeen straight clean firsts for Trevor Rogers, today at Camden Yards, the card's quietest park (36%). Joey Cantillo, though, has allowed one in five straight starts.
The trend read: -120 against a true -119 says the market read the same logs. A pass, not a play.
The Giants Have Scored In The First In 9 Of Their Last 15
Cardinals At Giants: McGreevy Vs. Webb, YRFI +122
Oracle's 41% rate is why the runs side pays +122, but the Giants, home and road, have scored in the first in nine of their last 15, most here and more than double their 26% season rate: a spike, not a level. Both starters are seven-of-10 clean with one five-run first each in the window (McGreevy Aug. 26, Webb July 8). +122 breaks even at 45.0%, the true +118 at 45.9%; that 0.8-point cushion is the printed 2.0% edge.
The trend read: the spike put +122 on the board; the cushion against fair makes it the play.
Mets-Marlins YRFI +111 against a true +109 pairs Eury Pérez's five-run first on Sept. 2 with Jonah Tong's first start of the year: one blow-up plus a blank sample is no trend.
Every true number above is OS Pro's no-vig price; the first-inning board on the live odds screen is where I confirm -102 is still -102 by 2:10. OS Pro carries a seven-day trial; code NRFI takes 20% off your first month.
More on this: NRFI Picks Today: Only 1 of 15 Games Has Value · MLB Hit Props Today · MLB Strikeout Props Today · MLB Total Bases Props Today · MLB Picks Hub: Today's Live Boards and Series
Monday's Full First-Inning Board
| Game (ET) | NRFI / YRFI | Away SP (clean 1st) | Home SP (clean 1st) | Team YRFI (Away / Home) | Park YRFI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves At Phillies (1:05) | -112 / +111 | Grant Holmes (10/10) | Jesús Luzardo (9/10) | 49% / 53% | Citizens Bank 59% |
| Mets At Marlins (1:10) | -113 / +111 | Jonah Tong (first 2026 start) | Eury Pérez (9/10, 5 R1 last start) | 50% / 42% | loanDepot 42% |
| Angels At Red Sox (1:35) | -113 / +100 | Grayson Rodriguez (4/10) | Brayan Bello (3/8*) | 50% / 53% | Fenway 55% |
| Guardians At Orioles (1:35) | -120 / +116 | Joey Cantillo (5/10) | Trevor Rogers (10/10) | 44% / 44% | Camden Yards 36% |
| D-Backs At Royals (2:10) | +105 / -117 | Derek Law (opener, 0 starts) | Noah Cameron (8/10) | 55% / 51% | Kauffman 56% |
| Cubs At Brewers (2:10) | -102 / +100 | Matthew Boyd (8/10) | Robert Gasser (7/10) | 46% / 49% | American Family 55% |
| Twins At Tigers (3:10) | -126 / +110 | Joe Ryan (6/10) | Troy Melton (7/10) | 59% / 48% | Comerica 38% |
| Nationals At Padres (5:10) | -108 / -104 | Jake Irvin (8/10) | Nick Pivetta (3/4*, last start 4/12) | 49% / 39% | Petco 40% |
| Cardinals At Giants (8:10) | -122 / +122 | Michael McGreevy (7/10) | Logan Webb (7/10) | 47% / 50% | Oracle 41% |
| Reds At Dodgers (9:10) | -119 / +108 | Chase Burns (7/10) | TBD | 53% / 50% | Dodger Stadium 50% |
| Blue Jays At Athletics (10:05) | -126 / +120 | Dylan Cease (9/10) | Jacob Lopez (8/10) | 49% / 54% | Sutter Health 56% |
Rate stats: clean first = no first-inning run allowed, counted for his current club (*under 10 starts); team/park YRFI = share of games with a first-inning run by either side (league avg 50%). Trends describe the past and prices move by first pitch; analysis, not a wager directive. 21+, legal states only.
