Fifteen MLB games carry a first-inning market Friday, September 18, and the board's longest streak is already priced. Ranger Suárez has not allowed a first-inning run since July 5. Clay Holmes has six straight clean firsts as a Cub. Andrew Painter has allowed 13 first-inning runs in 10 starts, and the market overbought it.
The Quick Answer
Three of the 30 sides beat fair by more than 2%: Brewers-Orioles YRFI +110 (3.4%), Phillies-Mets NRFI +102 (2.6%) and Cubs-Reds NRFI -108 (2.2%). Baltimore has no named starter, so it stays in the table; the other two are below.
Suárez Has Not Allowed A First-Inning Run Since July 5
Red Sox At Rays: Suárez Vs. Seymour, NRFI -127 / YRFI +121
Nine straight, two first-inning runs in his last ten starts, both July 5. Boston allows one in 34% of its games and scored first in four of its last 15; the streak belongs to Suárez, not the staff.
The trend read: the board's longest streak, and OS Pro's true price is also -127: nothing to buy. It changes at -120, or a YRFI past +127; Tampa Bay scores first in 32% of its games. I'm not touching -127.
Holmes Has Six Straight Clean Firsts As A Cub
Cubs At Reds: Holmes Vs. Burns, NRFI -108 / YRFI +108
One first-inning run in his Aug. 8 Cubs debut, none in six since. Chicago has scored first in four of its last 15; Great American runs 47%. The caveat: Cincinnati's games have had a first-inning run in 10 of the last 15, and the Reds allow one in 36% of theirs.
The trend read: the board's third-best edge, where trend and price agree: NRFI -108 holds value to its true -113. Burns, clean in seven of ten, is why.
Painter Has Allowed 13 First-Inning Runs In 10 Starts
Phillies At Mets: Painter Vs. Thornton, NRFI +102 / YRFI -102
Four clean firsts in ten, one allowed last time out, and a Mets lineup that scored first in seven of its last 15, with a first-inning run in 11. Thornton is five of ten; Citi Field runs 50%.
The trend read: the board's loudest runs trend, overbought. YRFI -102 misses fair by 2.5%; NRFI +102 clears it by 2.6% and is the side: a price play, not a trend play.
OS Pro's no-vig pricing sets the true prices; the first-inning Odds Screen carries all 30 sides. The live odds screen shops the moneylines book by book. Code NRFI takes 20% off OS Pro.
Friday's Full First-Inning Board
| Game (ET) | NRFI / YRFI | Away SP (clean 1st) | Home SP (clean 1st) | Team YRFI (Away / Home) | Park YRFI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs At Reds (6:40) | -108 / +108 | Clay Holmes (6/7*) | Chase Burns (7/10) | 47% / 53% | Great American 47% |
| Royals At Pirates (6:40) | -117 / +113 | Randy Dobnak (9/10) | Paul Skenes (8/10) | 50% / 47% | PNC 48% |
| Brewers At Orioles (7:05) | -111 / +110 | Dustin May (7/9*) | TBD | 49% / 45% | Camden Yards 37% |
| Athletics At Guardians (7:10) | -110 / +104 | Mason Barnett (1/4*) | Daniel Espino (1/1*) | 54% / 44% | Progressive 45% |
| Red Sox At Rays (7:10) | -127 / +121 | Ranger Suárez (9/10) | Ian Seymour (8/10) | 52% / 47% | Tropicana 49% |
| Phillies At Mets (7:15) | +102 / -102 | Andrew Painter (4/10) | Zac Thornton (5/10) | 53% / 51% | Citi Field 50% |
| Tigers At White Sox (7:40) | -104 / -102 | Andrew Sears (2/2*) | David Sandlin (2/4*) | 50% / 54% | Rate Field 52% |
| Blue Jays At Rangers (8:05) | -120 / +113 | Dylan Cease (8/10) | Kumar Rocker (6/10) | 50% / 59% | Globe Life 61% |
| Mariners At Rockies (8:10) | +115 / -125 | Bryan Woo (6/10) | TBD | 55% / 61% | Coors 71% |
| Braves At Astros (8:10) | -102 / -104 | Tyler Mahle (4/7*) | Peter Lambert (6/10) | 49% / 54% | Daikin Park 51% |
| Nationals At Cardinals (8:15) | -125 / +115 | Cade Cavalli (8/10) | Kyle Leahy (8/10) | 50% / 48% | Busch 41% |
| Twins At Angels (9:38) | -106 / +102 | Connor Prielipp (6/10) | Grayson Rodriguez (6/10) | 60% / 50% | Angel Stadium 55% |
| Marlins At Padres (9:40) | -114 / +115 | Tyler Phillips (5/10) | Nick Pivetta (5/6*) | 42% / 42% | Petco 40% |
| Yankees At Diamondbacks (9:40) | -108 / +102 | Gerrit Cole (8/10) | Eduardo Rodriguez (5/10) | 49% / 53% | Chase 53% |
| Giants At Dodgers (10:15) | -108 / +104 | Cesar Perdomo (2/2*) | Tyler Glasnow (8/10) | 52% / 49% | Dodger Stadium 51% |
Rate stats: clean first = no first-inning run allowed, last 10 starts with the club (*fewer than 10); team/park YRFI = games with a first-inning run by either side (league 51%). Trends describe the past; prices move by first pitch. TBD = no named starter. 21+ where legal.
More on this: NRFI Picks Today: Only 1 of 15 Games Has Value · MLB Hit Props Today · MLB Strikeout Props Today · MLB Total Bases Props Today · MLB Picks Hub: Today's Live Boards and Series
