The Quick Answer
Kalshi's 2028 Republican vice-presidential board makes Secretary of State Marco Rubio the favorite at 28 cents, ahead of a long list of senators, governors and MAGA-world names. A five-model AI panel, working without ever seeing a single price, agrees Rubio leads but marks him a full eleven points lower, and it pushes past the famous names to two running-mate profiles the crowd has cheap: former Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin and Senator Tim Scott. The whole 22-name board, where the panel splits hardest from the money, and which names it thinks are simply mispriced, is below.
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Updated August 20, 2026 · 10 min read · by Sam Smith
The Market
| Venue | Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state, as of August 2026) |
| The Event | "Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee for Vice President?" (ticker KXVPRESNOMR-28), 22 named yes/no contracts |
| The Contract | Each market resolves YES if that person accepts the Republican vice-presidential nomination in 2028, per Kalshi's settlement rules |
| Settlement Date | Scheduled for November 7, 2028, after the ticket is set |
| Prices Below As Of | the morning of August 20, 2026 |
This is a mutually exclusive board: exactly one person becomes the nominee. The 22 named contracts sum to about 74 cents, which leaves roughly 26 cents of implied probability for "someone not currently listed," a bucket we carry through the analysis as The Field.
What The Panel Was Given
The single most important fact about this market is structural: the vice-presidential nominee is chosen by the presidential nominee, and the 2028 Republican presidential nominee is not yet known. President Trump is term-limited under the 22nd Amendment and has said he will not run for the number-two slot either, so the 2028 ticket will be topped by a new name. That makes standing in the presidential primary an indirect signal that cuts both ways: a strong presidential frontrunner is more likely to top the ticket and therefore less available to be anyone's number two.
Each model saw a deterministically fetched context card: the freshest public 2028 Republican presidential primary polling (RealClearPolling's national average has Vance around 39% and Rubio around 19%, with recent Emerson and New Hampshire surveys showing Rubio surging into a tie), the note that no direct VP polling exists this far out, the constitutional constraints on individual names, and a standing instruction to price the running-mate fit rather than presidential share. They never saw the market prices, so where they land far from the crowd, that is an independent read, not an echo.
A disclosure on the panel: our full Model Verdict panel seats eight models. Three of the outside seats were unavailable for this run, so this board was scored by five: Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, GLM and DeepSeek. Each priced the whole 22-name field plus The Field in a single distribution, then read the others' anonymized reasoning and revised once. The numbers below are that second-round blend.
The Board
Sorted by the AI blend. The market column is Kalshi's morning price; the blend is the average of the five price-blind seats after their revision round.
| Candidate | Profile (as of Aug 2026) | Market | AI blend |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Field (Any Other Republican) | Someone not currently listed | 25.7¢ | 19% |
| Marco Rubio | Secretary of State | 28¢ | 17% |
| Glenn Youngkin | Former Virginia governor | 3.7¢ | 7% |
| Tim Scott | Senator (SC) | 4¢ | 7% |
| J.D. Vance | Vice President | 6¢ | 6% |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | Governor (AR) | 3.4¢ | 6% |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | Party figure | 4.9¢ | 4% |
| Byron Donalds | US Rep. (FL) | 2.6¢ | 4% |
| Katie Britt | Senator (AL) | 2.6¢ | 4% |
| Brian Kemp | Governor (GA) | 1.8¢ | 4% |
| Elise Stefanik | US Rep. (NY) | 2.1¢ | 3% |
| Greg Abbott | Governor (TX) | 1.2¢ | 3% |
| Josh Hawley | Senator (MO) | 1.2¢ | 2% |
| Ron DeSantis | Governor (FL) | 1.1¢ | 2% |
| Nikki Haley | Former UN ambassador | 1.5¢ | 2% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | Former DNI | 1.6¢ | 1.9% |
| Ted Cruz | Senator (TX) | 1.5¢ | 1.8% |
| John Thune | Senate Majority Leader | 0.4¢ | 1.3% |
| Erika Kirk | Turning Point USA CEO | 2.2¢ | 1.2% |
| Matt Gaetz | Former US Rep. (FL) | 0.3¢ | 1.0% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | HHS Secretary | 0.4¢ | <1% |
| Donald J. Trump | President (term-limited) | 3.7¢ | <1% |
| Elon Musk | Foreign-born, ineligible | 0.1¢ | <1% |
More live boards from the same panel: 2028 Republican presidential nominee odds (Vance leads the top-of-ticket board at 44¢, the very reason the panel caps his VP number) · 2028 Democratic nominee odds (Gavin Newsom out front near 15¢) · 2026 Senate control odds (Republicans about 52¢, Democrats about 46¢). Prices fetched August 20, 2026.
Every Seat's Number
The full per-model board. Where a seat rounded a longshot below one point, its cell shows the fraction.
| Candidate | Market | AI blend | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | GLM | DeepSeek |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Field (Any Other Republican) | 25.7¢ | 19% | 28 | 25 | 19 | 15 | 9 |
| Marco Rubio | 28¢ | 17% | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 19 |
| Glenn Youngkin | 3.7¢ | 7% | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| Tim Scott | 4¢ | 7% | 6 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| J.D. Vance | 6¢ | 6% | 6 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 5 |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 3.4¢ | 6% | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 4.9¢ | 4% | 5 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| Byron Donalds | 2.6¢ | 4% | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| Katie Britt | 2.6¢ | 4% | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| Brian Kemp | 1.8¢ | 4% | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Elise Stefanik | 2.1¢ | 3% | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Greg Abbott | 1.2¢ | 3% | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Josh Hawley | 1.2¢ | 2% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Ron DeSantis | 1.1¢ | 2% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Nikki Haley | 1.5¢ | 2% | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1.6¢ | 1.9% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Ted Cruz | 1.5¢ | 1.8% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| John Thune | 0.4¢ | 1.3% | 0.8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Erika Kirk | 2.2¢ | 1.2% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 |
| Matt Gaetz | 0.3¢ | 1.0% | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 0.4¢ | <1% | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Donald J. Trump | 3.7¢ | <1% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Elon Musk | 0.1¢ | <1% | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Seat cells are rounded to whole numbers for display; the blend averages the unrounded seat estimates, so two tightly packed longshots can share a displayed row while their blends differ by a tenth of a point.
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: Claude Fable 84% on 508 graded calls · Claude Opus 85% on 578 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 84% on 556 graded calls · GLM 81% on 2,367 graded calls · DeepSeek 80% on 2,392 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
Model estimates generated August 20, 2026, price-blind, from a five-model panel. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Every number here gets graded in public once the market settles, on our full model-verdict scoreboard. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
Why The Market And The Panel Disagree: Fame Versus Fit
Read the two columns side by side and one pattern explains almost every gap. The market is pricing name recognition. The panel is pricing the running-mate profile, the boring veepstakes math of who an actual nominee picks to balance a ticket by geography, ideology and demographics.
That is why the single widest gap on the board is the favorite himself.
Marco Rubio: market 28¢, blend 17%. All five seats independently landed between 16% and 19%, so this is a consensus, not one contrarian. The panel's logic is that Rubio is clearly the most versatile running mate on the list, a Florida foreign-policy figure who balances almost any nominee, which is why he leads their board too. But the same presidential strength that makes him famous also removes him from the picture in the branch where he tops the ticket, and the market is not discounting that overlap. Claude Opus: "Rubio inverts: strong number-two profile and available whenever Vance or a governor tops, but I cap him near 16, netting out the branches where he himself leads."
Glenn Youngkin at 3.7¢, blend 7%, and Tim Scott at 4¢, blend 7%. Here the panel roughly doubles the crowd. Neither is a presidential contender pulling headlines, and that is exactly the point: a swing-state governor and a positive-message Southern senator are the textbook profiles a nominee reaches for, and the market has them priced like afterthoughts. DeepSeek called them "strong ticket-balancers with national appeal." GLM grouped Scott, Youngkin and Sanders together as "standard veepstakes profiles, governors and senators, diverse demographics."
J.D. Vance: market 6¢, blend 6%, dead even. This is the tell that the panel's model is coherent. Vance leads every presidential poll, yet both the crowd and the machines price his vice-presidential number at a small fraction of his presidential lead, because a sitting Vice President who is the frontrunner to top the ticket is the least likely person to accept the number-two slot again. As Claude Fable put it, his VP odds "invert to about six: only live in the branches where someone else tops the ticket."
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
Each seat priced the field once, then read the others' anonymized reasoning and could revise. The revision round tightened the board's center rather than scattering it.
The clearest movement was a convergence onto Rubio from opposite sides. Claude Sonnet started high and came down; DeepSeek started low and came up, and they met.
On the second pass I weight by the chance each nominee wins times the chance they then pick this person, rather than raw primary share. Rubio leads because he is available whenever Vance tops the ticket, though he loses share when he himself wins. — Claude Sonnet (Rubio 22% to 17%)
Marco Rubio leads as the most versatile pick, available in nearly all scenarios given his presidential strength and swing-state appeal. — DeepSeek (Rubio 13% to 19%)
The other revision was on Vance, where GLM moved up from 2% to 6% after other seats argued that even a frontrunner keeps a small unity-ticket path, while one seat held its ground and explained why:
Vance is the modal ticket-topper, so his VP odds are low; new nominees rarely re-pick a sitting rival VP. — Claude Opus (Vance steady near 6% both rounds)
Dark Horses The Panel Won't Dismiss
The board's prose so far is about the top names, but the card gave every seat the full bench, and a few longshots drew real numbers.
- Brian Kemp (1.8¢, Blend 4%). A term-limited swing-state governor with cross-over appeal is a classic balance pick; DeepSeek was highest on him at 6%.
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders (3.4¢, Blend 6%). A sitting governor and former press secretary who signals directly to the base; the panel had her a couple of points above the crowd across all five seats.
- Byron Donalds (2.6¢, Blend 4%). The panel weighs his MAGA-base appeal even though he is currently running for Florida governor, a race that would take him off this board if he wins it.
- The Field Itself (25.7¢, Blend 19%). The most honest longshot on the page. Because the chooser does not exist yet, every seat kept a large residual for a name not currently discussed, exactly how Vance himself emerged as a barely-floated pick in 2024.
The Traps: Big Prices That Aren't What They Look Like
Three contracts carry prices the table would let you misread, and each is a documented-record story a nominee's vetting would actually weigh.
- Donald Trump At 3.7¢ is the market's clearest overpay, and the panel floors him near zero. He is term-limited, most legal scholars read the 12th Amendment as also barring a two-term president from the vice presidency, and Trump himself ruled out a VP run as "too cute." Almost four cents is priced on an outcome the Constitution and the man both close off.
- Elon Musk At 0.1¢ is correctly near zero for a simpler reason: he was born in South Africa and the natural-born-citizen clause makes him ineligible for the vice presidency. The panel zeroed it; the market already agrees.
- Erika Kirk At 2.2¢ is a viral-buzz contract. The Turning Point USA CEO endorsed a Vance presidential bid in December 2025 and "Vance-Kirk 2028" talk spread on social media, but she holds no office and has declared no candidacy; the panel treats her as a lottery ticket at just over 1%. For the record, several listed contenders carry documented histories any campaign would scrutinize, from the DOJ sex-trafficking investigation that closed in 2023 without charges against Matt Gaetz to the resignation that ended Tulsi Gabbard's tenure as Director of National Intelligence in 2026; the panel weighed viability, not just fame, on every name.
What Would Change The Panel's Mind
This board re-scores when the story moves. The concrete triggers, and the direction each pushes the numbers:
- The Presidential Race Resolves. The moment a 2028 nominee is effectively settled, this board flips from a distribution over many possible pickers to a read on one person's shortlist. If Vance locks the top of the ticket, Rubio's number likely rises (he becomes available and is the modal balancer); if Rubio wins the top slot, his VP number goes to zero and the mass flows to governors and senators.
- A Running Mate Auditions In Public. A swing-state governor campaigning nationally for the nominee, or a name handed a convention keynote, pushes that number up, the way early-2024 signals foreshadowed Vance.
- A Constitutional Or Legal Question Is Resolved. Any court test that clarified the 12th Amendment path would move the Trump contract; absent that, it stays near zero.
- A Candidate Exits For Another Office. Donalds winning or losing the Florida governor's race, or another contender committing elsewhere, removes or frees that probability. When a trigger fires, the panel re-scores and this page updates.
Settlement Timeline
| Market | KXVPRESNOMR-28, 2028 Republican VP nominee |
| Settles | On the ticket being set; contract dated November 7, 2028 |
| Next Catalysts | The 2026 midterms (November 3, 2026) reshape the bench; the 2028 Republican presidential primary calendar opens in early 2028; the Republican National Convention names the ticket in mid-2028 |
| Re-Score Policy | This page is re-scored whenever the story moves, with the "prices as of" stamp carrying the date |
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The Bottom Line
The crowd and the panel agree on the shape of this board: Marco Rubio leads, the constitutionally barred names are dead weight, and a large slice of probability belongs to someone not yet named. They part on how much to pay for fame. The market's 28-cent Rubio, its four-cent Trump and its viral Erika Kirk contract are all priced on recognition; the panel's read is that a vice-presidential pick is an act of ticket engineering, and that the cheapest names on the board, a former swing-state governor and a Southern senator, fit that job better than their prices suggest. Both sides get graded in public when the ticket is set. Until then, the number to watch is not Rubio's, it is the presidential race that will decide who is even doing the picking.
To be explicit: these are model estimates for information, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any contract. The models are graded against real settlements and are wrong regularly. Event contracts are for adults 18+ where legal; Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange and availability varies by state. Political markets are covered here as neutral probability questions, with no endorsement of any candidate or outcome.
