Nine MLB games carry a first-inning market Thursday, September 17, and the quiet side owns every edge. The Dodgers side pays +128. Drew Rasmussen last allowed a first-inning run on July 4. Valdez and Fedde have combined for 23 first-inning runs over their last ten starts, priced dead even.
The Quick Answer
Four of the 18 sides beat fair Thursday, all NRFI. Dodgers-Reds +128 at BetRivers against a +119 fair is the only one over two percent. Padres-Rockies +130 is the odd one: Tanner Gordon's seven straight clean firsts, Michael King at 8 of 10, and San Diego's board-low 41% first-inning rate are how a Coors NRFI reaches +130. Royals-Astros +113 has no Houston starter; Red Sox-Rangers -111 is the fourth. The third trend below argues with its price.
Dodgers Games Have Had A First-Inning Run In 6 Of 15
Dodgers At Reds (12:40 ET): Wrobleski Vs. Singer, NRFI +128 / YRFI -120
Cincinnati's games have had one in nine of 15, so the park breaks the tie: Great American runs 47% against a 50.5% league rate. Justin Wrobleski is clean in his last two; Brady Singer's four-run first on September 12 is the counter.
The trend read: +128 against a +119 fair, the board's only edge over two percent. Dodgers-Reds NRFI is my play.
Rasmussen's Last First-Inning Run Came On July 4
Athletics At Rays (1:10 ET): Springs Vs. Rasmussen, NRFI -108 / YRFI +104
Eleven straight starts without a first-inning run. Rays games have had one in seven of the last 15. Jeffrey Springs is the leak: four clean firsts in ten, nine runs allowed.
The trend read: the market has already bought the streak, -108 against a -108 fair. No edge in it.
Valdez And Fedde Have Combined For 23 First-Inning Runs
Tigers At White Sox (7:40 ET): Valdez Vs. Fedde, NRFI -102 / YRFI -102
Valdez has given up 12 first-inning runs in his last ten starts, Fedde 11 in ten with three clean. Detroit's games have had a first-inning run in ten of the last 15; Chicago's in six.
The trend read: half of Valdez's 12 came in one July 21 first, the other six in three starts after it, and he is clean in his last three. Fedde is the real runs case. At -102 both ways against a +101 runs-side fair, the number already knows.
Those fair numbers are OS Pro's no-vig pricing, the hold stripped out of each first-inning market. The first-inning Odds Screen carries all 18 sides, the live odds screen the MLB moneylines. Code NRFI takes 20% off your first month.
Thursday's Full First-Inning Board
| Game (ET) | NRFI / YRFI | Away SP (clean 1st) | Home SP (clean 1st) | Team YRFI (Away / Home) | Park YRFI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers At Pirates (12:35) | -104 / +100 | Kyle Harrison (7/10) | Wilber Dotel (1/1*) | 49% / 47% | PNC 49% |
| Dodgers At Reds (12:40) | +128 / -120 | Justin Wrobleski (6/10) | Brady Singer (7/10) | 49% / 53% | Great American 47% |
| Athletics At Rays (1:10) | -108 / +104 | Jeffrey Springs (4/10) | Drew Rasmussen (10/10) | 54% / 47% | Tropicana 49% |
| Padres At Rockies (3:10) | +130 / -133 | Michael King (8/10) | Tanner Gordon (8/10) | 41% / 61% | Coors 70% |
| Royals At Astros (7:15) | +113 / -118 | Seth Lugo (5/10) | TBD | 50% / 54% | Daikin Park 51% |
| Phillies At Mets (7:15) | -104 / -102 | Aaron Nola (6/10) | Nolan McLean (7/10) | 53% / 51% | Citi Field 51% |
| Tigers At White Sox (7:40) | -102 / -102 | Framber Valdez (6/10) | Erick Fedde (3/10) | 49% / 54% | Rate Field 51% |
| Red Sox At Rangers (8:05) | -111 / +111 | Sonny Gray (8/10) | Tyler Alexander (4/4*) | 51% / 59% | Globe Life 61% |
| Twins At Angels (9:38) | -125 / +115 | Taj Bradley (6/10) | Walbert Ureña (9/10) | 60% / 50% | Angel Stadium 55% |
Rate stats: bold = over fair; clean first = no first-inning run allowed, last 10 club starts (*fewer); team/park YRFI = games with a first-inning run (league 50.5%). Prices move by first pitch. 21+ where legal.
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