Brock Bowers waited until there were under two minutes left last Sunday to find the end zone from 20 yards out, which was rude of him, but it turned the Week 4 card green, and I'll take green however it arrives.
Week 5's 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. ET windows have one game that jumps off the board: Detroit at Arizona, with a 54.5 total and two defenses that have given up 11 passing touchdowns apiece. Two of this week's plays come from that game, both of them tight ends, and the other is the same tight end who bailed out last week's card, which makes this an all-tight-end affair.
Three plays, with every book's number laid out next to Kalshi's so you can grab the best one.
Play #1: The Raiders' Red Zone Just Opened Up, 40¢ (+140 Effective)
Ashton Jeanty won't play Sunday, and that leaves a hole near the goal line in Las Vegas: Jeanty had six red-zone targets and seven carries inside the 10 through four weeks. The most obvious place for that work to land is Brock Bowers, who has scored in both games since coming back from his knee injury, including the late 20-yarder against Kansas City that I'm still thanking him for.
In those two games, Bowers has drawn 28% of the Raiders' targets and 35% of their air yards, a 0.67 weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) that would top every tight end in the league over a full season, and he's played 79% and 82% of the snaps. He's averaging 0.57 EPA per target on a 10.6-yard average depth of target, so Las Vegas is using its tight end like a No. 1 receiver.
The matchup is the catch. New England has been the toughest draw in the league for tight ends, allowing just 104 yards and no touchdowns to the position at -0.29 EPA per target, second-best in the league. Las Vegas is a 3.5-point road underdog with a 45 total, implied for about 21 points, and now without its lead back.
Caesars had moved to +145 by the time I clicked in, and that's where I took it. DraftKings has Bowers at +135 and FanDuel at +130. Kalshi's 40¢ works out to +140 after the fee, second only to Caesars, so shop this one.
Play #2: Detroit Can't Cover the Tight End, 45¢ (+114 Effective)
Detroit has allowed 11 passing touchdowns through four games, tied for the most in the league, and six of them went to tight ends, more than any other defense has allowed to the position. Tight ends have seen 50 targets against the Lions and turned 60% of them into successful plays (gains that add expected points), which brings us right back to Trey McBride.
McBride cashed for me in Week 2 and has come up empty since, Week 4 included, but the role hasn't budged. He's been targeted 46 times, 29% of Arizona's throws, and he's drawn 27% of the team's air yards, which works out to a 0.62 WOPR, the highest of any tight end in the league. His nine red-zone targets are tied with Michael Wilson for the team lead. Both of his touchdowns came from point-blank range, a 3-yarder in the opener and a 2-yarder in Week 2. With Arizona a 5.5-point home underdog in a game with a 54.5 total, the Cardinals should be throwing plenty.
DraftKings and FanDuel have McBride at +115, Caesars at +110. Kalshi's 45¢ works out to +114 after the fee, a point behind the best book, so grab whichever number is higher when you click in.
Play #3: Arizona's Secondary Is Springing Leaks, 34¢ (+181 Effective)
The other side of that Detroit-Arizona game might be even friendlier. Arizona is tied with Detroit for the most passing touchdowns allowed, and its 0.33 EPA per dropback allowed is the second-worst mark in the league, as is the 12% of passes against the Cardinals that have gone for 20-plus yards. The Cardinals' safety room is also banged up, with Andrew Wingard missing practice Wednesday and backup Dadrion Taylor-Demerson limited.
Sam LaPorta is coming off his busiest day of the season, 13 targets against Carolina with four of them in the red zone, and he finished the day with an 8-yard touchdown. He's second on the Lions with nine red-zone targets, and he's caught scores from the 1 and the 8. He's been efficient with his looks, too, at 0.58 EPA per target with a 63% success rate, and five of his targets have been thrown into the end zone. Detroit is a 5.5-point road favorite implied for roughly 30 points.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is still the first read near the goal line with 12 red-zone targets, so LaPorta is splitting looks in an offense that spreads its touchdowns around. That's part of why this is priced where it is.
DraftKings and FanDuel have LaPorta at +165, Caesars at +163. Kalshi's 34¢ works out to +181 after the fee, the widest gap on this card.
The Fee Math
Always a reminder for the fine folks newer to playing on Kalshi: they charge a taker fee of 7% of price times one-minus-price, rounded to the cent. In plain English, for Bowers' 40¢ you're adding on 1.68¢, so you're really paying 41.68¢. On McBride's 45¢ it's 1.73¢, so 46.73¢, and on LaPorta's 34¢ it's 1.57¢, so 35.57¢. The fee peaks at even money, which is why the longer prices give up less of their edge to it. Kalshi rounds up at settlement, so treat every effective number here as a ceiling and not a floor.
Also, these are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. And just like at a sportsbook, this is a constantly moving market, so all prices are subject to change. Check actives and inactives 90 minutes before kickoff, make sure you're getting the best price possible, and enjoy the show.
The Official Card
All three contracts sit on their game's touchdown tab on Kalshi. Prices are accurate as of Friday, October 9, 2026, 3:00 PM ET. The effective column accounts for the taker fee:
| Contract | Price | After fee | Effective | Best book | Game | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers Yes 1+ TD | 40¢ | 41.68¢ | +140 | +145 (Caesars) | LV at NE | 0.5u |
| Trey McBride Yes 1+ TD | 45¢ | 46.73¢ | +114 | +115 (DraftKings) | DET at ARI | 0.5u |
| Sam LaPorta Yes 1+ TD | 34¢ | 35.57¢ | +181 | +165 (DraftKings) | DET at ARI | 0.5u |
McBride's contract has traded about 5,200 so far and Bowers' about 4,400, while LaPorta's has barely traded yet, but all three show thousands of contracts sitting at the quoted price. These markets get a lot busier by Sunday morning, so the prices could move either way.
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Final Thoughts
Three tight ends: one stepping into a vacated red zone, and two on either side of a game with a 54.5 total. Bowers' ticket misses about three times out of five, McBride's about half the time and LaPorta's about two times out of three, so size them like it.
As always: half units, no chasing in the late window, and no hero sizing on a Sunday. Trade smart, trade responsibly, and enjoy the slate.
— Lindy
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