TL;DR
Deadline week came and went, with Kalshi pricing 25 names to move (its trade markets settled by August 5). The panel's most-likely-traded: Luis Severino (51%), Luis Arraez (45%), Tarik Skubal (32%). Every verdict below was made price-blind, and unlike most deadline content, this entire board settles within days, and every number gets publicly graded.
Deadline content is usually unfalsifiable: rumors, sources, vibes. This board is the opposite. Eight AI models put a number on every name, the market's real-money price sits next to each one, and by next weekend every row is a graded YES or NO on our scoreboard. The models reason from contention math, contract situations, and how deadlines actually work; the crowd trades on this morning's rumors. The gap between them is the interesting part.
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Where The Machines Split From The Rumor Mill
Luis Arraez: market 87¢, AI blend 45% (42 points below the crowd). GLM 5.2: "Giants are clear sellers at 43-60, but Arraez's limited defensive value and large contract make a quick flip before the deadline moderately unlikely."
Luis Castillo: market 47¢, AI blend 9% (38 points below the crowd). Kimi K3: "Mariners (51-53, 2nd in AL West) remain in contention and Castillo is a long-term core ace, so Seattle trading him by the deadline is very unlikely."
Luis Severino: market 22¢, AI blend 51% (29 points above the crowd). Gemini 3.1 Pro: "The Athletics are out of contention and clear sellers, making veteran starter Severino a highly likely trade candidate for rotation-needy contenders."
Joe Ryan: market 40¢, AI blend 14% (26 points below the crowd). Gemini 3.1 Pro: "The Twins are fringy contenders, and Ryan is a controllable young starter rather than a deadline rental, making a mid-season trade highly unlikely."
The Full Board: 25 Names, Eight Models
| Outcome | Kalshi | AI blend | ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GLM 5.2 | Kimi K3 | DeepSeek V4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Severino | 22¢ | 51% | 58% | 25% | 55% | 35% | 75% | 35% | 55% | 72% |
| Luis Arraez | 87¢ | 45% | 43% | 28% | 45% | 35% | 60% | 18% | 60% | 70% |
| Tarik Skubal | 50¢ | 32% | 42% | 18% | 15% | 6% | 65% | 4% | 38% | 65% |
| Jose Berrios | 9¢ | 22% | 34% | 8% | 16% | 35% | 15% | 22% | 27% | 18% |
| Sandy Alcantara | 6¢ | 18% | 18% | 32% | 30% | 15% | 5% | 5% | 30% | 12% |
| Jo Adell | 33¢ | 17% | 19% | 12% | 17% | 5% | 35% | 12% | 27% | 12% |
| Matt Chapman | 29¢ | 17% | 12% | 5% | 10% | 13% | 75% | 12% | 7% | 4% |
| Willy Adames | 36¢ | 16% | 12% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 75% | 15% | 2% | 7% |
| Rafael Devers | 28¢ | 15% | 12% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 1.0% | 4% | 85% |
| Joe Ryan | 40¢ | 14% | 14% | 10% | 16% | 20% | 5% | 12% | 25% | 8% |
| Aroldis Chapman | 8¢ | 9% | 14% | 6% | 8% | 15% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 15% |
| Luis Castillo | 47¢ | 9% | 16% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 5% | 12% | 4% | 8% |
| Randy Arozarena | 2¢ | 9% | 18% | 5% | 12% | 12% | 3% | 18% | 4% | 1.0% |
| Sonny Gray | 9¢ | 8% | 14% | 5% | 8% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 15% |
| Christian Walker | 27¢ | 8% | 7% | 8% | 12% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 4% | 7% |
| Jarren Duran | 12¢ | 5% | 4% | 7% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1.0% | 6% | 0.5% |
| Willson Contreras | 4¢ | 5% | 4% | 5% | 10% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 5% |
| Hunter Greene | 13¢ | 5% | 7% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 1.0% | 5% | 3% |
| Steven Kwan | 4¢ | 4% | 6% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 0.5% |
| Zac Gallen | 5¢ | 4% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1.0% | 5% | 2% |
| Adley Rutschman | 12¢ | 4% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0.3% | 5% | 3% |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 1¢ | 3% | 1.5% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 1.0% | 2% |
| Yandy Diaz | 10¢ | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1.0% | 3% | 3% |
| Gunnar Henderson | 2¢ | 1.6% | 0.6% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 8¢ | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2% | 3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: GPT 83% on 1,693 graded calls · Claude Fable 85% on 331 graded calls · Claude Opus 86% on 382 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 84% on 363 graded calls · Gemini 85% on 1,718 graded calls · GLM 80% on 1,874 graded calls · Kimi 84% on 1,863 graded calls · DeepSeek 80% on 1,877 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
Model estimates generated July 25, 2026, price-blind. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
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