TL;DR
Deadline week is here and Kalshi prices 25 names to move (its trade markets settle by August 5). The panel's most-likely-traded: Luis Severino (51%), Luis Arraez (45%), Tarik Skubal (32%). Every verdict below was made price-blind, and unlike most deadline content, this entire board settles within days, and every number gets publicly graded.
Deadline content is usually unfalsifiable: rumors, sources, vibes. This board is the opposite. Eight AI models put a number on every name, the market's real-money price sits next to each one, and by next weekend every row is a graded YES or NO on our scoreboard. The models reason from contention math, contract situations, and how deadlines actually work; the crowd trades on this morning's rumors. The gap between them is the interesting part.
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Where The Machines Split From The Rumor Mill
Luis Arraez: market 87¢, AI blend 45% (42 points below the crowd). GLM 5.2: "Giants are clear sellers at 43-60, but Arraez's limited defensive value and large contract make a quick flip before the deadline moderately unlikely."
Luis Castillo: market 47¢, AI blend 9% (38 points below the crowd). Kimi K3: "Mariners (51-53, 2nd in AL West) remain in contention and Castillo is a long-term core ace, so Seattle trading him by the deadline is very unlikely."
Luis Severino: market 22¢, AI blend 51% (29 points above the crowd). Gemini 3.1 Pro: "The Athletics are out of contention and clear sellers, making veteran starter Severino a highly likely trade candidate for rotation-needy contenders."
Joe Ryan: market 40¢, AI blend 14% (26 points below the crowd). Gemini 3.1 Pro: "The Twins are fringy contenders, and Ryan is a controllable young starter rather than a deadline rental, making a mid-season trade highly unlikely."
The Full Board: 25 Names, Eight Models
| Outcome | Kalshi | AI blend | ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GLM 5.2 | Kimi K3 | DeepSeek V4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Severino | 22¢ | 51% | 58% | 25% | 55% | 35% | 75% | 35% | 55% | 72% |
| Luis Arraez | 87¢ | 45% | 43% | 28% | 45% | 35% | 60% | 18% | 60% | 70% |
| Tarik Skubal | 50¢ | 32% | 42% | 18% | 15% | 6% | 65% | 4% | 38% | 65% |
| Jose Berrios | 9¢ | 22% | 34% | 8% | 16% | 35% | 15% | 22% | 27% | 18% |
| Sandy Alcantara | 6¢ | 18% | 18% | 32% | 30% | 15% | 5% | 5% | 30% | 12% |
| Jo Adell | 33¢ | 17% | 19% | 12% | 17% | 5% | 35% | 12% | 27% | 12% |
| Matt Chapman | 29¢ | 17% | 12% | 5% | 10% | 13% | 75% | 12% | 7% | 4% |
| Willy Adames | 36¢ | 16% | 12% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 75% | 15% | 2% | 7% |
| Rafael Devers | 28¢ | 15% | 12% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 1.0% | 4% | 85% |
| Joe Ryan | 40¢ | 14% | 14% | 10% | 16% | 20% | 5% | 12% | 25% | 8% |
| Aroldis Chapman | 8¢ | 9% | 14% | 6% | 8% | 15% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 15% |
| Luis Castillo | 47¢ | 9% | 16% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 5% | 12% | 4% | 8% |
| Randy Arozarena | 2¢ | 9% | 18% | 5% | 12% | 12% | 3% | 18% | 4% | 1.0% |
| Sonny Gray | 9¢ | 8% | 14% | 5% | 8% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 15% |
| Christian Walker | 27¢ | 8% | 7% | 8% | 12% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 4% | 7% |
| Jarren Duran | 12¢ | 5% | 4% | 7% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1.0% | 6% | 0.5% |
| Willson Contreras | 4¢ | 5% | 4% | 5% | 10% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 5% |
| Hunter Greene | 13¢ | 5% | 7% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 1.0% | 5% | 3% |
| Steven Kwan | 4¢ | 4% | 6% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 0.5% |
| Zac Gallen | 5¢ | 4% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1.0% | 5% | 2% |
| Adley Rutschman | 12¢ | 4% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0.3% | 5% | 3% |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 1¢ | 3% | 1.5% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 1.0% | 2% |
| Yandy Diaz | 10¢ | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1.0% | 3% | 3% |
| Gunnar Henderson | 2¢ | 1.6% | 0.6% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 8¢ | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2% | 3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: GPT 83% on 1,693 graded calls · Claude Fable 85% on 331 graded calls · Claude Opus 86% on 382 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 84% on 363 graded calls · Gemini 85% on 1,718 graded calls · GLM 80% on 1,874 graded calls · Kimi 84% on 1,863 graded calls · DeepSeek 80% on 1,877 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
Model estimates generated July 25, 2026, price-blind. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
Related Verdicts
FAQ
Why do the model percentages differ from the Kalshi price?
The models never see the price. When they disagree with the crowd, one side is wrong, and we grade every verdict against real settlements on our scoreboard.
Are model verdicts betting advice?
No. Model verdicts are model estimates, not betting or financial advice. Treat them as one input among many and make your own decisions.
Prices on this page are Kalshi's book. If you also trade on Polymarket, code OS4 gets new users a $20 bonus on a $10 deposit — affiliate link; terms as stated by Polymarket; 18+, availability varies by state.
