MLB Clinching Scenarios: What Every Team Plays For Saturday

And then there were two.

Two games left for almost everybody, and one for the Cubs, Red Sox and Yankees, who sit Saturday out and finish Sunday. Friday cleared up almost nothing, which is the best news you could ask for if you like baseball in the last weekend of September.

Texas got annihilated in Minnesota, 10-2. Jacob deGrom gave up eight runs in four innings, and Josh Jung took a 94.6 mph fastball off the right hand in the first inning and came out with a fracture, which ends his season. That should have been the night the Astros took control of the AL West. Instead Houston fell behind 6-1 in West Sacramento, clawed back to 6-5 and lost anyway. So the Rangers and Astros are still dead even at 79-81.

The AL Central didn't move either, because both teams won. Cleveland outlasted Kansas City 12-9 and the White Sox handled Colorado 6-1.

The NL is where Friday got loud. Arizona crushed San Diego 11-4 for its sixth straight win, Philadelphia lost 2-0 to a Rays team with nothing to play for, and the D-backs are now one game back of the last spot. The Cubs also got swept in a doubleheader in Boston, 4-3 and 2-0, which blew the race for the 4 seed wide open.

Here is where everything stands heading into Saturday's 13-game slate.

If The Playoffs Started Tonight

Seeds 1 and 2 get byes. Seeds 3 and 4 host every game of the best-of-three Wild Card round, with 6 at 3 and 5 at 4. There is no Game 163 anymore, either. Every tie gets settled on paper.

American League

Seed	Team	Record
1	Rays	97-63	Division · bye · locked
2	Guardians	84-76	Division · bye
3	Astros	79-81	Division · hosts
4	Yankees	93-68	Wild Card · hosts · locked
5	Red Sox	87-74	Wild Card · locked
6	White Sox	83-77	Wild Card

First out: Rangers 79-81, tied with Houston and on the wrong end of the tiebreaker.

National League

Seed	Team	Record
1	Brewers	101-59	Division · bye · locked
2	Dodgers	98-62	Division · bye · locked
3	Braves	93-67	Division · hosts · locked
4	Padres	89-71	Wild Card · hosts
5	Cubs	88-73	Wild Card
6	Phillies	87-73	Wild Card

First out: Diamondbacks 86-74, one game back of Philadelphia.

Red Sox at Yankees is officially set for Tuesday. MLB already has it on the schedule. Everything else in the Wild Card round is still up in the air.

Every Clinch Scenario Still Out There

AL West — Astros 79-81, Rangers 79-81. Winner-take-all, and the loser goes home. Houston went 9-4 against Texas this year, so a tie goes to the Astros and their magic number is two. Texas has to gain one full game in two days. Any of these gets the Rangers in: they win both and Houston loses one, they win both and Houston loses both, or they split and Houston loses both. Everything else sends the Astros to the 3 seed. If Houston wins and Texas loses Saturday, it's over before Sunday.

And here is the part that's already locked in, no matter what happens. The best record either team can finish with is 81-81, which means the AL West champion will not have a winning record. Wild. The worst record by a playoff team in a full 162-game season belonged to the 2005 Padres at 82-80. That record is getting broken this weekend, guaranteed. If the eventual winner doesn't go 2-0, baseball also gets its first-ever division champion with a losing record, and that team will host all three games of a Wild Card series.

AL Central — Guardians 84-76, White Sox 83-77. Same math, higher floor. Both teams are in, and the prize is the 2 seed and a week off. The loser is the 6 seed, packing a bag for Houston or Texas. The White Sox won the season series 7-6, so a tie goes to Chicago and Cleveland's magic number is two. A Guardians win and a White Sox loss Saturday ends it. The Guardians have two more in Kansas City against a 68-92 Royals team. The White Sox get the 57-103 Rockies twice more at home.

NL Wild Card — Phillies 87-73, Diamondbacks 86-74. Philadelphia has lost three straight while Arizona has won six in a row, and the D-backs are now one game back, and a straight tie goes to Arizona: the teams split their six games 3-3, and the D-backs' intradivision record (32-18) is miles ahead of Philadelphia's (28-24). So Arizona needs to gain one game in two days, and its elimination number is two. The Phillies host the Rays twice. The D-backs play two more in San Diego.

One wrinkle. If the Cubs also lose Sunday and it turns into a three-way tie at 88 wins, the multi-team tiebreakers kick in, and the Cubs have the best record against both of those clubs. It gets messy fast, so root for clean outcomes.

NL 4 seed — Padres 89-71, Cubs 88-73. This is about who hosts the Wild Card round. San Diego is a game up with two to play. Chicago has one game left, Sunday in Boston, and owns the tiebreaker after going 5-1 against the Padres. That puts San Diego's magic number at one. A single Padres win Saturday or Sunday, or a Cubs loss Sunday, and the Padres host. Philadelphia is technically alive for it too: the Phillies would need to sweep the Rays, the Padres would need to get swept by Arizona, and the Cubs would need to lose Sunday. It's a long shot, but it's there.

Everything else is done. Tampa Bay is the AL 1 seed. Milwaukee has 101 wins, the NL 1 seed and home field all the way through the World Series. The Dodgers are the 2, the Braves are the 3, the Yankees are the 4 and the Red Sox are the 5.

All 13 Games On Saturday's Slate

The Cubs, Red Sox, Orioles and Yankees are off. Everybody else plays. In first-pitch order, with records, starters and what each club is playing for. All times Eastern.

12:35 p.m. ET — Mets (73-87) at Nationals (76-84). Jonah Tong against Connelly Early. Both eliminated. Washington has won three straight, for whatever that's worth in Game 161.

1:10 p.m. ET — Pirates (81-79) at Tigers (75-85). Kirby Yates against Justin Verlander. Pittsburgh is guaranteed at least a .500 season, and one more win makes it a winning one. Detroit is just playing out the string.

3:07 p.m. ET — Reds (74-86) at Blue Jays (78-82). Rhett Lowder against Trey Yesavage. Both eliminated, and two young arms getting one last look before winter.

4:05 p.m. ET — Dodgers (98-62) at Giants (65-95). Blake Snell against Matt Wilkinson. Los Angeles is locked into the 2 seed. Snell is here to get his work in and get out.

4:10 p.m. ET — Rangers (79-81) at Twins (76-84). Nathan Eovaldi against Bailey Ober. Texas plays first, which matters. A win puts the pressure on Houston before the Astros take the field in the late window. A loss means the Rangers need a win Sunday and two Astros losses. And they're doing it without Jung, a day after deGrom got knocked around. Minnesota has won three straight and would be happy to play spoiler on the way out.

4:10 p.m. ET — Braves (93-67) at Marlins (79-81). Brent Suter against Jack Ralston. Atlanta is locked into the 3 seed and has lost two straight. Brent Suter, a longtime reliever, getting the ball tells you how seriously they're taking this one.

7:10 p.m. ET — Guardians (84-76) at Royals (68-92). Tanner Bibee against Michael Wacha. Cleveland's magic number is two. Win this one while Chicago loses, and the Guardians take the division and the bye tonight.

7:10 p.m. ET — Rockies (57-103) at White Sox (83-77). Jose Quintana against Davis Martin. Chicago needs a game on Cleveland and gets the worst team in baseball to find it. First pitch is at the exact same time as Cleveland's, so both clubhouses will be watching the out-of-town scoreboard all night.

7:10 p.m. ET — Cardinals (77-83) at Brewers (101-59). Quinn Mathews against Dustin May. Milwaukee has nothing left to win in the regular season. Expect a lot of rest.

7:15 p.m. ET — Rays (97-63) at Phillies (87-73). Griffin Jax against TBD. Tampa Bay just beat the Phillies 2-0 with nothing on the line, which is either a bad sign for Philadelphia or a fluke. The Phillies have lost three straight and need this one badly. A win plus an Arizona loss clinches their spot.

8:40 p.m. ET — D-backs (86-74) at Padres (89-71). TBD against Walker Buehler. The best game of the night. Arizona has to win, San Diego clinches home field with a win, and both teams are playing it straight. The Phillies will know their result before first pitch here, so the D-backs will know exactly what they need.

9:40 p.m. ET — Astros (79-81) at Athletics (64-96). TBD against Jack Perkins. Houston will know the Texas result before first pitch. The A's already beat the Astros once this weekend, and they'd happily do it again.

9:40 p.m. ET — Angels (61-98) at Mariners (74-85). Ryan Johnson against Kade Anderson. Both eliminated, and both finishing out the string.

What The Market Thinks Of All That

Kalshi prices every one of these races, and with two games left there's a handy way to check them. If every remaining game were a coin flip, a team that needs to gain one game in two days would get there 31.3% of the time. The team holding the tiebreaker would win 68.8% of the time. So here are the three races with a chaser, against that coin-flip baseline:

Market	Kalshi (bid/ask)	All-in	Effective odds	Coin-flip baseline
Astros Win AL West	71¢ / 75¢	76.3%	-322	68.8%
Rangers Win AL West	24¢ / 29¢	30.4%	+229	31.3%
Guardians Win AL Central	56¢ / 58¢	59.7%	-148	68.8%
White Sox Win AL Central	38¢ / 43¢	44.7%	+124	31.3%
Phillies Make Playoffs	68¢ / 74¢	75.3%	-306	68.8%
D-Backs Make Playoffs	29¢ / 32¢	33.5%	+198	31.3%

Kalshi prices read late Friday night. All-in adds the taker fee of 0.07 × price × (1 − price) to the ask, then converts to American odds.

The AL Central is the one that jumps out. The coin-flip baseline has Chicago at 31.3%. Kalshi has the White Sox at 43 cents to buy. That's the crowd betting on two home games against a 103-loss Rockies team, and it's the same lean the market has had all week.

The AL West goes the other way. Texas is priced below the coin-flip baseline, which makes sense when your third baseman just broke his hand and your ace just gave up eight.

Texas also has a pricing quirk that's been there since Thursday. The Rangers are eliminated from the Wild Card, so winning the AL West is their only way into the playoffs. But Kalshi has "Rangers make playoffs" at 32 cents bid and "Rangers win AL West" at 29 cents to buy. Those are the same outcome, and they shouldn't be three cents apart in that direction.

Then the World Series board:

Team	Kalshi	All-in after fee	Effective odds
Dodgers	30.0¢	31.5%	+218
Brewers	16.9¢	17.9%	+459
Rays	11.1¢	11.8%	+748
Yankees	8.6¢	9.2%	+993
Braves	6.0¢	6.4%	+1,464
Guardians	5.7¢	6.1%	+1,546
Padres	5.4¢	5.8%	+1,637
Red Sox	5.2¢	5.5%	+1,703
Cubs	4.5¢	4.8%	+1,983
Phillies	3.4¢	3.6%	+2,655
White Sox	3.2¢	3.4%	+2,827
Astros	2.5¢	2.7%	+3,644

Cleveland's number finally moved. The Guardians were 4.4 cents on Thursday and they're 5.7 cents now, closing the gap on a Yankees team that has to play a best-of-three while Cleveland could be sitting at home. The Phillies went the other way, from 4.8 cents down to 3.4 after one more loss and a sixth straight Arizona win.

Who Actually Has A Reason To Rest Somebody

Locked: the Rays (1), Brewers (1), Dodgers (2), Braves (3), Yankees (4) and Red Sox (5). The last two don't even play Saturday. The other four do, and every one of them is a candidate for a lineup card full of call-ups.

Playing it straight: Houston and Texas for their seasons. Cleveland and Chicago for a bye. Philadelphia and Arizona for the last NL spot. San Diego for home field. That's seven clubhouses, and all seven are running their real people out there.

Everybody else: 16 clubs are eliminated.

The collision to watch is Rays at Phillies. Tampa Bay has had its seed locked the longest of anybody in baseball and still beat Philadelphia on Friday. Every inning the Rays' backups hold the Phillies down helps Arizona, a team playing on the other side of the country.

Braves at Marlins is the other one. Atlanta is locked, starting Suter and has lost two straight. That doesn't change a single seed, but it's the kind of game where the lineup card matters more than the standings.

Where The Edge Is Saturday

The schedule is the edge. Texas plays at 4:10, and Houston doesn't start until 9:40. Philadelphia starts at 7:15, and Arizona starts at 8:40. In both races, the chaser or the leader will know exactly what the other did before first pitch. Watch how the Astros and D-backs prices move during those afternoon and early evening windows, because they'll be reacting to games those teams aren't even playing in.

The Rangers pricing quirk. "Rangers make playoffs" at 32 cents bid and "Rangers win AL West" at 29 cents to buy are the same bet, and one of them is wrong. I'm not telling you which side to take. I'm telling you to look at both before you touch either.

Totals in locked-team games, once you know who's pitching. Braves at Marlins with Suter starting, Rays at Phillies with Jax starting, and Cardinals at Brewers with Milwaukee resting. A bullpen game is a very different number than a starter, and those announcements tend to land after the lines are already hanging.

And the boring one that makes the most money: shop the number. Late-September totals and moneylines vary more across books than they do in July, because not everybody is modeling these rosters the same way. Run the game through our live odds screen and take the best of DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and everybody else on the board before you fire.

Final Thoughts

Two games, four races and a record book that's getting rewritten no matter what. Somebody is winning the AL West with 81 wins or fewer, and there's a real chance they do it with a losing record.

The chasers all have something close to a one-in-three shot: Texas at 29 cents, Chicago at 43 and Arizona at 32. None of them control their own fate. Know the number before you buy it, and remember that nothing here is financial advice.

Two more days of full-slate baseball. Let's enjoy it.

— Lindy

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