Prices as of Monday afternoon, September 21.
Will the Bears make the playoffs without Caleb Williams? Kalshi has it at 47 cents as of Monday afternoon, September 21, which means a 47% chance. Before the Vikings game kicked off Sunday it was 61. In the first hour after Williams got carted off, it was 24. Chicago is 1-1, Tyson Bagent starts against the unbeaten Eagles next Monday night, and Ben Johnson called Williams "week to week" after Monday's MRI.
The Read
Here's how I see it. Sunday morning the Bears were a 61-cent playoff team. Nothing about the roster changed except the quarterback, for two games, maybe three. If the MRI came back the way the Bears are hoping, a mild strain, Williams sits for the Eagles and the Jets and is back for the Packers on October 11. If that's the injury, this is a 55-cent team you can buy for 47. We find out Wednesday, when we see whether he practices.
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The Odds
As of Monday, September 21, 4:30 PM ET (Kalshi):
| Contract | Before Sunday's kickoff | Now | Reads as |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears make the playoffs | 61¢ | 47¢ | about 47% (≈ +113 in sportsbook terms) |
| Bears win the NFC North | 39¢ | 21¢ | about 21% (≈ +376) |
| Bears win the Super Bowl | 5¢ | 4¢ | about 4% (≈ +2400) |
The playoff contract pays if Chicago is one of the 14 teams in the field, and it settles after Week 18 ends on January 10. The rest of the division on the same contract Monday afternoon: Lions 65 cents, Vikings 57, Packers 45, Bears 47. The sportsbooks are lower at +154 to make it, which is about 39%.
Fifty-Nine Points, Then Three
A week ago the Bears hung 59 on Carolina. Sunday it rained sideways at Soldier Field and they scored three. The number was Bears -4.5. Brian Flores blitzed everybody, Chicago finished with 297 yards, and the Vikings won 9-3 on three Will Reichard field goals. Williams went 15 of 26 for 138 with a pick to Byron Murphy Jr. in the first quarter. D'Andre Swift put the ball on the ground in the third.
Then the play. 8:30 left, Bears down 6-3, first-and-goal. Williams booted left with nothing between him and the end zone and went down without anybody touching him. Andrew Van Ginkel was the guy chasing: "I was just chasing him. I dove, missed him and then he just went down." Williams got helped off and carted to the locker room, and most people watching figured the season went with him. The playoff contract was 61 cents when he took the snap. It traded 24 within the hour and 46 by the end of the game.
What We Actually Know About The Hamstring
Johnson after the game: "I'm actually happy it's nothing with the knee," and then, "a hamstring can be pretty damaging as well." Sunday night the reporting was that the Bears hoped for a Grade 1 strain, the mildest kind. Monday, after the MRI, Johnson went with "week to week" and said Williams will "likely miss some time." Tom Pelissero reported the injury isn't considered major and that Williams hasn't been ruled out for the Eagles. Jarrett Payton on The Score: "It could be two to three weeks. It could be two weeks."
So the range is two games to four, and the odds moved like it's four or more.
What You Get With Bagent
Tyson Bagent has four NFL starts, all in 2023 when Justin Fields hurt his thumb. He beat the Raiders 30-12 and the Panthers 16-13 at home. He lost 30-13 at the Chargers and 24-17 at the Saints. Add it up and it's 84 of 129 for 776 yards, three touchdowns and five picks. Sunday he went 5 of 9 for 54 yards, drove it to the Vikings 12, and Dallas Turner sacked him on the last snap.
Johnson's line Sunday: "I called plays for him all preseason, so we'll be fine." That's coach talk, but the offense that scored 59 a week ago still has the same line, the same backs and the same receivers.
What he's replacing is the problem. Williams threw for 3,942 yards, 27 touchdowns and seven picks last year, ran for three more scores, and the Bears went 11-6 and won a playoff game. He was 12 cents to win MVP a week ago. He's 5 now.
The Schedule While He's Out
Five games before the Week 10 bye, and only one of them has a line yet.
| Week | Opponent | Date | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Eagles (2-0) | Mon., Sept. 28, home | Eagles -4.5, was Bears -1.5; total 43.5, was 46.5 |
| 4 | Jets (1-1) | Sun., Oct. 4, home | not posted |
| 5 | at Packers (1-1) | Sun., Oct. 11 | not posted |
| 6 | at Falcons | Sun., Oct. 18 | not posted |
| 7 | Patriots | Thu., Oct. 22, home | not posted |
Two weeks out is the Eagles and the Jets. Three weeks means Green Bay too. Minnesota is 2-0 and already owns the tiebreaker, and Kalshi's NFC North odds Monday afternoon read Lions 33 cents, Vikings 32, Bears 21, Packers 20.
Now do the math with me. The Eagles line moved six points on the injury, from Bears -1.5 to Eagles -4.5. Six points is about 20% of win probability in one game. Two Bagent starts cost the Bears about a third of a win, and a third of a win does not cost you 14 cents of playoff odds. Five or six weeks of Bagent does. The contract has already climbed from 42 to 47 since Monday morning, so some of Sunday's sellers are coming back. Either somebody knows something about that MRI that Johnson didn't say, or the rest of them will too. The Commanders' playoff price shows what a real disaster looks like.
What Moves The Price From Here
- Wednesday's practice report. Limited on Wednesday puts him in play for the Eagles and this contract goes back above 50. Out all week means Bagent starts and the price sits where it is.
- Eagles at Bears, Monday night, September 28. Bears +4.5 at home. If Bagent wins that game, add five to eight cents. If Philadelphia runs them off the field, this drops under 40.
- Bears at Packers, October 11. Williams starts that game and the Bears are back near where they were Saturday. Bagent starts it and the mid-40s is fair, and the division contract at 21 is the one I'd be selling.
- January 10, 2027. The playoff field is set after Week 18 and the contract settles.
Bottom Line
47 cents says a 47% chance the Bears make the playoffs. The same team was 61 cents Sunday morning, and the only thing that changed is two or three games of Tyson Bagent. If Williams is practicing next week, you're buying a 55-cent team at 47. If he isn't, Eagles -4.5 in Chicago is telling you the market got this one right.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Caleb Williams photo by All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
Prices quoted are live Kalshi market prices as of Monday afternoon, September 21, and will keep moving until the playoff field is set in January. OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst: any model or panel figures referenced are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Trading involves risk; contracts can go to zero.
