Thirty-six states elect governors in 2026, and prediction markets have real prices on 35 of them. That makes this page possible: one board with every priced race, from the five states the money says are actually in play down to the thirty it has already called. Three of these races carry the full price-blind AI-panel verdicts this page launched with, seven more (Nevada, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, Texas and New York) have picked up verdict pages of their own since, and their numbers are folded in below. This is a permanent hub; it rebuilds as primaries settle, polls land, and prices move. This edition is the first full re-pull since August 7, and the map it found is not the map it left.
The Quick Answer
The market no longer sees a governor toss-up inside 55-45 anywhere in America. The two closest boards are Georgia, where Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms trades at 56.5 cents against Rick Jackson's 43.5, and Ohio (Amy Acton 57.5¢). Nevada, the toss-up this page launched on, has flipped: incumbent Joe Lombardo 60¢, Aaron Ford 41. Behind them sit Alaska (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 62¢) and Kansas (Ty Masterson 66.5¢); Iowa and Wisconsin, live races in August, now trade at 76.5 and 79.5 cents for the Democrats. Our seven-model AI panel scored three boards in full for this page: Michigan (Benson 81.0% blend), Georgia (Bottoms 60.4%), and California (Becerra 96.4%); seven more boards carry verdicts from their own runs. The full 35-state table, what moved since September 3, the battleground reads, and the market that bets on closeness itself are below. Prices as of September 6, 2026, 09:54 UTC.
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New to event markets? How to bet sports on Kalshi covers the exchange mechanics; this page is the governor layer. Prices refresh on our standard market-pulse cycle, with the as-of stamp above and below as the evidence.
Every Priced Race
Two kinds of boards live on the exchange: candidate markets where the nominees are named, and party markets where only the party is priced. Both are shown as fetched; prices are each side's midpoint between the best bid and best ask, in cents. AI blend appears where a panel has scored the board, and it is the blend for the side listed as market leader.
| State | Market leader | Price | Trailing side | Price | AI Blend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) | 56.5¢ | Rick Jackson (R) | 43.5¢ | 60.4% |
| Ohio | Amy Acton (D) | 57.5¢ | Vivek Ramaswamy (R) | 42.5¢ | 42% |
| Nevada | Joe Lombardo (R) | 60¢ | Aaron Ford (D) | 41¢ | ~60% |
| Alaska | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) | 62¢ | Bernadette Wilson (R) | 31.5¢ | pending |
| Kansas | Ty Masterson (R) | 66.5¢ | Cindy Holscher (D) | 32.5¢ | pending |
| Iowa | Rob Sand (D) | 76.5¢ | Zach Lahn (R) | 23.5¢ | 73% |
| Wisconsin | David Crowley (D) | 79.5¢ | Tom Tiffany (R) | 20.5¢ | 68% |
| Florida | Byron Donalds (R) | 81.5¢ | David Jolly (D) | 19.5¢ | 78.5% |
| Texas | Greg Abbott (R) | 82.5¢ | Gina Hinojosa (D) | 18.5¢ | 85.5% |
| Arizona | Katie Hobbs (D) | 86¢ | Andy Biggs (R) | 14.5¢ | pending |
| Oregon | Tina Kotek (D) | 87.5¢ | Christine Drazan (R) | 12.5¢ | pending |
| Michigan | Jocelyn Benson (D) | 89.1¢ | John James (R) | 10.6¢ | 81.0% |
| Nebraska | Jim Pillen (R) | 91.1¢ | Lynne Walz (D) | 8.6¢ | pending |
| Oklahoma | Republican party | 92¢ | Cyndi Munson (D) | 8.4¢ | pending |
| Alabama | Tommy Tuberville (R) | 92.3¢ | Doug Jones (D) | 8.8¢ | pending |
| Vermont | Phil Scott (R) | 92.8¢ | Amanda Janoo (D) | 8.3¢ | pending |
| New York | Kathy Hochul (D) | 93.2¢ | Bruce Blakeman (R) | 7.6¢ | 92.4% |
| New Mexico | Deb Haaland (D) | 93.7¢ | Greggory D. Hull (R) | 7.2¢ | pending |
| Maine | Hannah Pingree (D) | 94.1¢ | Robert Charles (R) | 6.3¢ | pending |
| South Carolina | Alan Wilson (R) | 94.5¢ | Jermaine Johnson (D) | 5.9¢ | pending |
| Massachusetts | Maura Healey (D) | 94.6¢ | Mike Minogue (R) | 5.5¢ | pending |
| Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar (D) | 95.1¢ | Lisa Demuth (R) | 5.2¢ | pending |
| Maryland | Wes Moore (D) | 95.3¢ | Dan Cox (R) | 6.4¢ | pending |
| Illinois | JB Pritzker (D) | 95.9¢ | Darren Bailey (R) | 4.1¢ | pending |
| Tennessee | Marsha Blackburn (R) | 95.9¢ | Jerri Green (D) | 4¢ | pending |
| California | Xavier Becerra (D) | 96¢ | Steve Hilton (R) | 4.2¢ | 96.4% |
| Rhode Island | Democratic party | 96¢ | Republican party | 3.1¢ | pending |
| Connecticut | Ned Lamont (D) | 96.6¢ | Ryan Fazio (R) | 2.5¢ | pending |
| Wyoming | Eric Barlow (R) | 96.6¢ | Kenneth Casner (D) | 3.2¢ | pending |
| Idaho | Brad Little (R) | 96.9¢ | Terri Pickens (D) | 2.2¢ | pending |
| Hawaii | Josh Green (D) | 97¢ | Gary Cordery (R) | 3.1¢ | pending |
| Pennsylvania | Josh Shapiro (D) | 97.2¢ | Stacy Garrity (R) | 3.1¢ | pending |
| Colorado | Phil Weiser (D) | 97.5¢ | Victor Marx (R) | 4.1¢ | pending |
| Arkansas | Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) | 97.8¢ | Fred Love (D) | 2.7¢ | pending |
| South Dakota | Republican party | 97.8¢ | Democratic party | 2.5¢ | pending |
What Moved Since September 3
Two clocks run on this page. The prices above were last pulled on August 7, and the page itself last changed on September 3, when its in-body board graphic came off. So this section answers both questions: what the three sessions since September 3 did, and what the month before them did to the map.
Since September 3, the exchange's money went to three boards. California's Steve Hilton contract, already the deepest governor position on the exchange, took the most: 209,496 contracts across the three sessions, 104,539 of them on September 4, on a move from 3.8 to 4.4 cents. New York's Republican side was second: 63,125 contracts on September 4 and 57,291 on September 5, which carried Bruce Blakeman's contract from a 5.3-cent close on September 2 to an 11-cent print and an 8.9-cent close on September 5; the New York board has the price history. Iowa had the biggest single session on any board outside California: 63,360 Democratic-side contracts on September 3, the day Emerson's Iowa poll put Rob Sand ahead of Zach Lahn 49-46, against a 30-day median of about 1,674 a day, and the price finished that session at 76 after opening at 75. Size that large moving the number one cent is a market being told what it already believed. Georgia, the closest race on the board, softened a cent a session: 12,800 contracts on September 3, the board's busiest day since August 11, and closes of 58, 57 and 56 after 59 on September 2, with no poll stamped to any of the three days. Alaska's Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins contract traded 6,521 contracts on September 5 and its open interest went from 37,806 to 43,566 over the three sessions, the largest proportional build on any live-tier board in the window; Florida matched 18,170 and closed a cent lower. Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin and Kansas traded fewer than 4,000 contracts apiece and closed within a cent of where they started.
The month before that is the real story. On August 11, primary night in Wisconsin, Nevada's Republican contract went from 46 to a 71-cent print and a 65 close on 26,693 contracts, the board's biggest day in the window and just ahead of an August 17 session of 25,175, with open interest up about 17,000 on the day; no Nevada poll or wire item is stamped to that date, and the contract has closed between 55 and 63 in every session since, 58 or better in all but one. Wisconsin's Democratic side, 39 at the open, closed 64 that same night on 56,416 contracts once David Crowley had the nomination, and has closed between 78 and 80 in every session since August 26, the day Marquette's first post-primary poll was released. Iowa's Democratic side closed August 10 at 65, 72 two sessions later, and has closed between 74 and 78 in every session since August 16. Ohio stopped being a coin flip on August 24, when 254,279 contracts took Amy Acton from 52 to a 56 close; Florida's Republican side absorbed a single sale of about 278,000 contracts on August 30 and went from 83 to 80 before settling at 81. Kansas, listed since the page launched but not on its August 7 table, went from 77 to 60 for the Republican side on the same August 11 session, a week after its primary, and has climbed back to 66.5; Alaska's Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins went from 11 cents to 27 the day after his August 18 top-four primary and trades at 62 today. Eight boards that priced only a party in August now price people: Wisconsin, Florida, Vermont, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Connecticut, Hawaii and Arkansas. Six rows are on this table for the first time: Ohio, Alaska, Kansas, Tennessee, Wyoming, and Rhode Island. New Hampshire is the one 2026 race the exchange does not price; its only active governor board is for 2028, though the state does trade on the closest-race field market below.
That is the movement. The table's own reading, row by row, picks up below.
Oklahoma is the one row where a named Democrat faces a party contract. The Republican runoff was held on August 25, and the exchange's nominee market settled Mike Mazzei as the winner, with a settlement stamped 03:08 UTC on August 26; the general-election board had not been relabeled as of this fetch. The panel scored the runoff 24 points away from the market before it was held: see Oklahoma Runoff Odds: Drummond vs. Mazzei.
The AI blend column is the seven-model panel's revised consensus where a full board was run for this page, and the number printed on the linked verdict page where a board was scored in its own run. Ohio is the one board where the two disagree on the winner: the panel scored it on August 7, when the market was a coin flip, and blended Vivek Ramaswamy to about 58%, which is why the Acton row shows 42; that read is frozen until the board is re-scored.
More live boards we've scored: Michigan governor · Benson 89.1¢ · Georgia governor · Bottoms 56.5¢ · Nevada governor · Lombardo 60¢ · Ohio governor · Acton 57.5¢ · Iowa governor · Sand 76.5¢ · Wisconsin governor · Crowley 79.5¢ · Florida governor · Donalds 81.5¢ · Texas governor · Abbott 82.5¢
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Nevada: The Toss-Up That Flipped
Incumbent Joe Lombardo's 60-cent contract against Attorney General Aaron Ford's 41 makes Nevada the third-closest governor race on the exchange, and the only race on the August 7 table whose leader has changed since: Ford was at 53.5 that day. About 720,000 contracts have matched across the pair. Ford's side has churned harder, 482,000 contracts matched to Lombardo's 238,000, but the open exposure now sits with the favorite: about 141,000 contracts are open on Lombardo against 100,000 on Ford. The volume is the argument; the open interest is the position. The panel's Nevada verdict, run August 14 with the contract at 63, landed at a Republican hold near 60 percent, and its reasoning is the polling record: across every public survey from December 2025 through late July 2026, Democratic-sponsored ones included, none had shown Ford ahead, with the July Democratic poll a 44-44 tie. Nevada still fits the cycle's referendum shape, an R-held seat in a state decided by low single digits in three straight presidential elections, but the money has decided the incumbent is the favorite in it.
Georgia, Ohio, Alaska, Kansas: The Live Tier
Georgia is the open-seat race our panel scored for this page: Bottoms 60.4% against a price that was 58.5 cents on August 7 and is 56.5 today, a four-point gap where there was a two-point agreement, built on a cleaned polling record of roughly +2 to +4. The full Georgia verdict has every seat's number. Ohio was not on the August 7 table and is now the second-closest race on it: Amy Acton at 57.5 cents over Vivek Ramaswamy after the August 24 break from 50-50, the one board where the market has moved to the opposite side of a frozen panel read. The Ohio verdict has the quarter-million-contract day.
Alaska and Kansas are the two live-tier boards without a verdict page. Alaska is a person market with sixteen names on it, and the top-four primary on August 18 turned it into a two-name market with a live third: Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 62 cents, Republican Bernadette Wilson at 31.5, two names still bid above a cent behind them (Treg Taylor at about a nickel, Dave Bronson just over four cents), and the party board a shade above the person board at 63.5 for a Democrat; the Alaska primary board has the field it started from. Kansas is a Republican pickup at 66.5 cents for Ty Masterson over Democrat Cindy Holscher, the only race in this tier where the money leans red for the challenger's party. Iowa and Wisconsin, live races in August, have moved out of the tier: Rob Sand at 76.5 and David Crowley at 79.5, and the closest-race field market below has moved them down its ladder to match.
Michigan and California: Scored and Called
Michigan's 89.1-cent Benson price rests on 13 contracts across the last three sessions; it is a quote, not a trade, and the reading is that nobody has wanted to argue with it since the panel's Michigan verdict, run three days after the August 4 primary set Benson against James, landed at 81.0% against her 84.5-cent price at the time, paying James three points more than the market on polling staleness. A third name, Mike Duggan, is listed at half a cent. California is the opposite shape in every way. Steve Hilton's book got deeper as his price died: open interest on his contract grew from about 3.42 million to 4.18 million between August 5 and September 5 while the price faded from 5.1 cents to 4.4, which is what a 4-cent contract looks like when people keep buying the argument rather than the outcome. Becerra's 96.4% blend on the California board, scored earlier this cycle, still exceeds his price, 96 cents on the person market and 96.3 on the party market, about as called as an open-seat race gets.
The Market That Bets on Closeness Itself
The exchange also lists a field market on which state produces the closest governor race by final margin. Its current leaders: Georgia 14¢, Ohio 13.5¢, Nevada 8.7¢, Iowa 8.1¢, Kansas 6.8¢, with Michigan at 5.9 and Wisconsin at 5.5. On August 7 that ladder read Iowa 16.5, Wisconsin 14.5, Georgia 14, Ohio 11: the two states whose win boards moved to 76 and 80 cents lost half or more of their margin-market price, and the two boards inside 58-42 moved to the top. Note what that ranking is and is not: it prices the expected final margin, not the odds of an upset, which is why Nevada's 60-41 win board and its third-place margin price can both be true at once. A blowout favorite can still win narrowly, and a coin-flip race can end five points apart.
Where the Volume Hides
The deepest governor books on the exchange belong mostly to states the price says are settled, plus Ohio, where the depth is a genuine disagreement, and each has a story. California's person market is in a class by itself: Steve Hilton's 4-cent contract has matched about 8.3 million contracts, Becerra's about 5.2 million, more than the rest of the map combined. Below it, New York's Bruce Blakeman has matched 867,000 contracts, up from 342,000 on August 7, about 120,000 of it in the last two sessions, and his 7.6-cent midpoint sits under a 9.3-cent last print after that buying; Ohio's pair has 787,000 on Ramaswamy and 703,000 on Acton; Texas Democrat Gina Hinojosa's 18.5-cent contract, 466,000 contracts on August 7, is at 656,000; and Pennsylvania's Stacy Garrity has 392,000 at 3.1 cents. Outside Ohio, read these as opinion-heavy longshot books, not as smart-money signals: positions accumulate where people want to argue. Minnesota's wrinkle has resolved itself: the board now prices Amy Klobuchar against Lisa Demuth, and the separate market on whether Tim Walz leaves office early settled its before-September rung to No on September 1, leaving only the before-2027 rung, at 4 to 5 cents.
Florida is the cleanest case study: 497,000 contracts matched on Donalds against 294,000 on Jolly, and the single 278,000-contract sale on August 30 accounts for more than half of the Republican side's lifetime book — see the most traded candidate in the Florida governor market.
What Rebuilds This Page
- Primaries. Three of the 35 boards still price a party rather than a nominee: Oklahoma's Republican side, Rhode Island (where Ken Block is also listed, under two cents), and South Dakota. As those settle, candidate contracts replace party contracts and this table re-ranks.
- Panel runs. Alaska and Kansas are the live-tier boards without a verdict; each new scored board adds an AI blend row here.
- The fall polling wave. The front edge has landed: Marquette's Wisconsin poll on August 26 and Emerson's Iowa poll on September 3 each moved their boards' volume more than their price, and the post-Labor Day bulk starts this week. No public post-primary head-to-head is stamped to any of the Georgia or Nevada moves on this page.
- November 3, 2026. Every contract on this page settles on certified results, all of them on November 3 elections (the Kansas contract's expiry runs to January 2028, the closest-race market's to January 2027); the panel's numbers get graded on the public scoreboard as each race certifies.
How To Read These Prices
- Eligibility. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, not a sportsbook. 18+, availability varies by state as of September 2026. Election event contracts are legal to trade there.
- Candidate vs party markets. A party market's price folds primary uncertainty into the number; a candidate market's price assumes the named matchup. They are not directly comparable.
- Thin tails flicker. Sub-5-cent contracts in small states move on single trades; a 2-cent change with no volume is a re-quote, not news. The reverse also happens: New York's Blakeman contract shows a 7.6-cent midpoint under a 9.3-cent last print after two heavy sessions, so on a busy board read the last trade next to the quote.
- **Not advice.
More on this: 2026 Governor Races: Every Kalshi Board We Track · 2028 Presidential Election Odds: All 30 Names Scored · 2028 Republican Nominee Odds: The Full Field Vs. The Kalshi Market · Florida Governor Odds: Donalds Vs Jolly After The Primary · 2026 Senate Races: Every Kalshi Board We Track
The Bottom Line
The 2026 governor map, priced: no true toss-up left, two near coin-flips (Georgia, Ohio), a flipped Nevada, two live pickups the money leans on (Alaska for the Democrats, Kansas for the Republicans), and a long tail of states the market has already called, some of them at prices that would still have surprised you two cycles ago: a Democrat at 76 cents in Iowa, a Democrat at 80 in Wisconsin, a 92-cent Tuberville in Alabama. The panel-scored boards deepen as the sprint continues, the Senate map has its own hub, and every number on this page gets graded in public when the races certify.
Prices as of September 6, 2026, 09:54 UTC, fetched per-contract from the exchange. The Michigan, Georgia and California AI blends are from the seven-seat price-blind panel runs on the linked boards (Michigan and Georgia generated August 7, 2026; California August 3, 2026), each after an anonymized revision round, and are kept as generated. The other blends in the table are the numbers printed on each linked verdict page as of today. Strictly analytical, no advocacy.
Prices on this page are Kalshi's book. If you also trade on Polymarket, code OS4 gets new users a $50 trading bonus on a $10 deposit — affiliate link; terms as stated by Polymarket; 18+, availability varies by state.
