2026 Governor Races: Odds for Every Battleground
Thirty-six states elect governors in 2026, and prediction markets have real prices on thirty of them. That makes this page possible: one board with every priced race, from the four states the money says are actually in play down to the twenty-plus it has already called. Three of these races also carry full price-blind AI-panel verdicts from our model lane, and their fresh numbers are folded in below. This is a permanent hub; it rebuilds as primaries settle, polls land, and prices move.
The Quick Answer
The market sees exactly one governor toss-up in America: Nevada, where Democrat Aaron Ford trades at 53.5 cents against incumbent Joe Lombardo's 47. Behind it sit three live races: Georgia (Bottoms 58.5¢), Wisconsin (Republican party 59.5¢), and Iowa (Rob Sand 63.5¢). Everything else trades at 80 cents or better for one side. Our seven-model AI panel has scored three boards in full: Michigan (Benson 81.0% blend), Georgia (Bottoms 60.4%), and California (Becerra 96.4%). The full 30-state table, the battleground reads, and the market that bets on closeness itself are below.
Free: The Weekly PM Market Brief — the panel's graded record, the week's biggest market-vs-model gaps, and what's spiking next. This hub's races get graded one by one as they certify; the Brief is where the receipts land. Free, Sundays. The signup box is at the bottom of this page.
New to event markets? How to bet sports on Kalshi covers the exchange mechanics; this page is the governor layer. Prices refresh on our standard market-pulse cycle, with the as-of stamp below as the evidence.
Every Priced Race
Two kinds of boards live on the exchange: candidate markets where the nominees (or presumptive front-runners) are named, and party markets where the primary is still open and only the party is priced. Both are shown as fetched; prices are the leading side's midpoint in cents. AI blend appears where our panel has scored the full board.
| State | Market leader | Price | Trailing side | Price | AI Blend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | Aaron Ford (D) | 53.5¢ | Joe Lombardo (R) | 47¢ | pending |
| Georgia | Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) | 58.5¢ | Rick Jackson (R) | 42.5¢ | 60.4% |
| Wisconsin | Republican party | 59.5¢ | Democratic party | 39.5¢ | pending |
| Iowa | Rob Sand (D) | 63.5¢ | Zach Lahn (R) | 36.5¢ | pending |
| Florida | Republican party | 80.5¢ | Democratic party | 20.5¢ | pending |
| Arizona | Katie Hobbs (D) | 83.5¢ | Andy Biggs (R) | 16.5¢ | pending |
| Texas | Greg Abbott (R) | 83.5¢ | Gina Hinojosa (D) | 16.5¢ | pending |
| Nebraska | Jim Pillen (R) | 83.5¢ | Lynne Walz (D) | 16.5¢ | pending |
| Michigan | Jocelyn Benson (D) | 84.5¢ | John James (R) | 14.5¢ | 81.0% |
| Vermont | Republican party | 87.5¢ | Democratic party | 13.5¢ | pending |
| Oregon | Tina Kotek (D) | 89.1¢ | Christine Drazan (R) | 10.7¢ | pending |
| New Mexico | Deb Haaland (D) | 89.2¢ | Greggory D. Hull (R) | 10.5¢ | pending |
| South Carolina | Alan Wilson (R) | 89.6¢ | Jermaine Johnson (D) | 10.2¢ | pending |
| Alabama | Tommy Tuberville (R) | 90.2¢ | Doug Jones (D) | 10.1¢ | pending |
| New York | Kathy Hochul (D) | 92¢ | Bruce Blakeman (R) | 7.9¢ | pending |
| Massachusetts | Democratic party | 92.7¢ | Republican party | 7.9¢ | pending |
| Pennsylvania | Josh Shapiro (D) | 92.7¢ | Stacy Garrity (R) | 6.7¢ | pending |
| Colorado | Phil Weiser (D) | 93.2¢ | Victor Marx (R) | 6.8¢ | pending |
| Oklahoma | Republican party | 93¢ | Cyndi Munson (D) | 4.9¢ | pending |
| Maine | Hannah Pingree (D) | 93.9¢ | Robert Charles (R) | 5.5¢ | pending |
| Minnesota | Democratic party | 94.2¢ | Republican party | 5.2¢ | pending |
| Illinois | JB Pritzker (D) | 94.6¢ | Darren Bailey (R) | 4.9¢ | pending |
| California | Xavier Becerra (D) | 94.9¢ | Steve Hilton (R) | 5.2¢ | 96.4% |
| Maryland | Wes Moore (D) | 95.2¢ | Dan Cox (R) | 4.8¢ | pending |
| Connecticut | Democratic party | 96¢ | Republican party | 3.2¢ | pending |
| Hawaii | Democratic party | 96.5¢ | Republican party | 3.3¢ | pending |
| South Dakota | Republican party | 96.8¢ | Democratic party | 2.8¢ | pending |
| Idaho | Brad Little (R) | 97.5¢ | Terri Pickens (D) | 2¢ | pending |
| Arkansas | Republican party | 97.8¢ | Democratic party | 2.2¢ | pending |
The AI blend column is the seven-model panel's revised consensus where a full board has been run. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
More live boards from the same panel: Michigan governor · Benson 84¢ · Georgia governor · Bottoms 58¢ · Ohio Senate special · Brown 52¢
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Nevada: The Only Toss-Up on the Map
Attorney General Aaron Ford's 53.5-cent contract against incumbent Joe Lombardo's 47 makes Nevada the single governor race the market refuses to call, and the only one priced inside 55-45. About 257,000 contracts have matched across the pair. Nevada also fits the cycle's referendum shape: an R-held seat in a state decided by low single digits in three straight presidential elections, in a midterm running five to six points against the president's party on the generic ballot. This is the next board in this cluster scheduled for a full panel run.
Georgia, Wisconsin, Iowa: The Live Tier
Georgia is the open-seat race our panel scored today: Bottoms 60.4% against her 58.5-cent price, a two-point agreement built on a cleaned polling record of roughly +2 to +4. The full Georgia verdict has every seat's number.
Wisconsin trades as a party market with the Republican side at 59.5 cents on about 357,000 matched contracts, the only competitive-tier race where the money leans red. Iowa prices Democrat Rob Sand at 63.5 cents over Republican Zach Lahn, a striking number in a state Trump has carried three times, and the closest-race field market (below) treats Iowa as its favorite for the tightest finish in the country.
Michigan and California: Scored and Called
The panel's Michigan verdict, run three days after the August 4 primary set Benson against James, landed at 81.0% against her 84.5-cent price, paying James three points more than the market on polling staleness. The California board, scored earlier this cycle, is the opposite shape: Becerra's 96.4% blend actually exceeds his 94.9-cent price, about as called as an open-seat race gets.
The Market That Bets on Closeness Itself
The exchange also lists a field market on which state produces the closest governor race by final margin. Its current leaders: Iowa 16.5¢, Wisconsin 14.5¢, Georgia 14¢, Ohio 11¢, with Michigan at 5.9. Note what that ranking is and is not: it prices the expected final margin, not the odds of an upset, which is why Nevada's 53-47 win-probability toss-up and Iowa's margin-market lead can both be true at once. A blowout favorite can still win narrowly, and a coin-flip race can end five points apart.
Where the Volume Hides
Three boards carry lopsided volume in odd places, and each has a story. Texas Democrat Gina Hinojosa's 16.5-cent contract is the single most-traded governor position on the exchange at about 466,000 contracts. Pennsylvania's Stacy Garrity has matched 340,000 contracts at 6.7 cents, and New York's Bruce Blakeman 342,000 at 7.9. Read these as opinion-heavy longshot books, not as smart-money signals: positions accumulate where people want to argue, and the deepest books on this map belong to states the price says are settled. Minnesota adds a wrinkle of its own: the governor board there prices only the parties while a separate exchange market tracks whether Tim Walz leaves office early, its still-open before-September rung at 1.5 cents.
What Rebuilds This Page
- Primaries. Eight of the thirty boards still price parties, not people. As nominees settle, candidate contracts replace party contracts and this table re-ranks.
- Panel runs. Nevada is next in the verdict queue; each new scored board adds an AI blend row here.
- The post-Labor Day polling wave. The competitive tier's prices moved most recently on July polling; September is when the map historically reshuffles.
- November 3, 2026. Every contract on this page settles on certified results; the panel's numbers get graded on the public scoreboard as each race certifies.
How To Read These Prices
- Eligibility. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, not a sportsbook. 18+, availability varies by state as of August 2026. Election event contracts are legal to trade there.
- Candidate vs party markets. A party market's price folds primary uncertainty into the number; a candidate market's price assumes the named matchup. They are not directly comparable.
- Thin tails flicker. Sub-5-cent contracts in small states move on single trades; a 2-cent change with no volume is a re-quote, not news.
- Not advice. These are model estimates and market prices, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
The Bottom Line
The 2026 governor map, priced: one true toss-up (Nevada), three live races (Georgia, Wisconsin, Iowa), and a long tail of states the market has already called, some of them at prices that would still have surprised you two cycles ago: a Democrat at 63 cents in Iowa, a Republican side at 59 in Wisconsin, a 90-cent Tuberville in Alabama. The panel-scored boards deepen as the sprint continues, the Senate map has its own hub, and every number on this page gets graded in public when the races certify.
Prices as of August 7, 2026, 12:08 UTC, fetched per-contract from the exchange. AI blends are from the seven-seat price-blind panel runs on the linked boards (Michigan and Georgia generated August 7, 2026; California August 3, 2026), each after an anonymized revision round. Strictly analytical, no advocacy. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
