Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday, October 7, 2026.
If you're betting the Lions moneyline, I get it, and I'd be with you. If you're betting them to cover 5.5 on the road, you have to make some hard arguments. Detroit has given up 30, 41, 24 and 32 points this season and hasn't covered a game. Arizona is a bad team, and its passing game is the one part that can take advantage: Cardinals +5.5.
Kickoff: Sunday, October 11, 4:25 PM ET, State Farm Stadium
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Lions Win By 6 Or More | 50-51¢ | Lions −5.5 |
| Total: Over 54.5 Points | 50-51¢ | 54.5 |
| Moneyline: Lions Win | 69-70¢ | Lions -258 / Cardinals +210 |
On Kalshi, Detroit winning by six or more is 50 to 51 cents, and the Lions to win are 69 to 70 cents, about -230. The over at 54.5, tied for the highest total of the week, is 50 to 51 cents.
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Where The Edges Are
| Matchup | Lions | Cardinals | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions run game vs Cardinals run D | 13th | 5th | Cardinals D |
| Lions passing game vs Cardinals pass D | 4th | 31st | Lions O, clearly |
| Lions pass protection vs Cardinals pass rush | 13th | 21st | Lions O |
| Lions explosive plays vs Cardinals big-play D | 25th | 31st | Lions O |
| Cardinals run game vs Lions run D | 30th | 16th | Cardinals O, clearly |
| Cardinals passing game vs Lions pass D | 30th | 23rd | Cardinals O |
| Cardinals pass protection vs Lions pass rush | 8th | 7th | even |
| Cardinals explosive plays vs Lions big-play D | 28th | 32nd | even |
Ranks out of 32 through Week 4 of 2026, nflverse play-by-play. Run game = EPA per carry, passing = EPA per dropback, protection = sacks-plus-hits rate against pressure rate, explosive = rate of completions of 20-plus. O = that offense has the edge, D = the defense does.
Lions, best: passing yards (3rd), success rate (3rd), pass rush (8th). Worst: explosive passes (25th), ypa (18th), pass defense yards (32nd).
Cardinals, best: pass protection (7th), success rate (11th), run defense efficiency (5th). Worst: ypa (32nd), explosive passes (32nd), pass defense efficiency (31st).
Detroit's Defense Is Last
The Lions lost 32-26 at Carolina on Sunday night as 4.5-point favorites. Jared Goff threw 52 times for 412 yards, and the defense allowed 124 rushing yards and hit the quarterback 11 times without getting off the field. Detroit is 0-3-1 against the spread.
The season line is ugly. Detroit is 32nd in EPA per play allowed, 30th against the pass and 30th against the run, and 28th in completions of 20-plus allowed. It beat New Orleans by one only after Kellen Moore's two-point call failed, lost by 10 in Buffalo, gave up 24 to a bad Jets team, and gave up 32 to Carolina. The teams the Lions play stay competitive no matter what.
Arizona Can Throw On This
The Cardinals lost 36-24 to the Giants. Jacoby Brissett went 21 of 35 for 166 with two touchdowns and three interceptions. Michael Wilson caught seven of 13 targets for 95, Trey McBride caught seven, and Jeremiyah Love ran 14 times for 63. Arizona has lost three straight since its Week 1 win over the Chargers.
It is a bad team, and Arizona's own pass defense is 31st. The case is narrow: Wilson and McBride are good options against the worst secondary in the league, and 5.5 points is a lot to give with a defense that has allowed at least 24 every week. Love may not play; I'm not sure how much it matters.
The Pick
Cardinals +5.5.On Kalshi, that is Detroit not winning by six or more, 49 to 50 cents.
I can't think of another way to play this one. The Lions might win; the defense is why they shouldn't be laying 5.5 to do it.
Ask The SimsThe same Sims that have won DFS players tens of millions of dollars now build parlays. A 54.5 total with two bad pass defenses is made for this: ask for the best parlay if it's a shootout, best Cardinals parlay if Trey McBride has a big game, best Lions parlay if Jared Goff throws for 300. A parlay for every script, free in the Kalshi Combo Simulator.
Injury Report
- Jeremiyah Love (ARI). May not play. Check Friday's designations.
- Detroit's defense. 32nd in EPA per play allowed. Allowed 30-plus in three of four games.
- Weather. State Farm Stadium has a retractable roof.
My picks for the rest of Week 5 are in NFL Week 5 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: All-Pro Reels via Wikimedia Commons (Jared Goff 1.jpg), CC BY-SA 2.0; cropped and toned.
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