Kalshi prices read off the exchange Wednesday, September 16, 2026, 8:30 p.m. ET. Event ticker 26SEP17DETBUF. Kickoff is Thursday at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video. Prices move — re-pull before you trade.
Welcome to the new place, Buffalo. Hope you like points.
Highmark Stadium hosts its first real football tomorrow night carrying the fattest total on the Week 2 board — 54.5, up from 52.5 at open — and I am here for exactly one thing. The touchdown board. Not the side, not the total, not a six-leg monstrosity. Just the question of who reaches the end zone and what the exchange is charging you to say so.
Two contracts in this game are priced behind what the men holding them actually do, and one of them is sitting at 33 cents. If you came here to cash a touchdown prop, you are in the right building.
Here is why the number is wrong. Three quarterbacks in New Orleans Saints history have thrown for 400 yards in a game: Drew Brees, Aaron Brooks, and — on Sunday — Tyler Shough. That happened to Detroit.
Tomorrow night the Lions run it back with both of their starting safeties parked on the PUP list. Kerby Joseph has a knee that already cost him 11 games last season. Brian Branch tore an Achilles in December. Neither is available for the first four games, and this trip sits right in the middle of that window. Alex Anzalone, the best cover linebacker on the roster, walked in free agency and took Detroit's ability to play base defense with him.
Jahmyr Gibbs is the likeliest man in this football game to reach the end zone, and the exchange knows it — he is 68 cents and there is no argument to be had. I am interested in the two the exchange got wrong. Strongest first, before another word of setup.
What 33 Cents Actually Means
Slow down here if you're new to Kalshi, because this part is important and it was not obvious to me the first time either: the cent price does not account for the fees.
One piece of format housekeeping and that's the entire tutorial: Kalshi posts one-sided threshold contracts, so a “1+” contract is your sportsbook's anytime touchdown, and one contract pays a dollar if it hits. Now the math.
You buy Kincaid at 33 cents. It pays a dollar if he scores. Kalshi's taker fee is 0.07 × price × (1 − price), which at 33 cents comes to 1.55 cents. Your actual cost is 34.55 cents to win a dollar — risking 34.55 to collect 65.45. Run that through the converter and you get +189.
Now hold it up against the board and watch the books disagree with each other before the exchange even enters the chat. BetMGM has Kincaid at +140. FanDuel has the identical touchdown at +175. Same player, same night, same outcome, and two of the biggest books in the country sit 35 cents apart on it.
The exchange pays +189 after its own rake. So one touchdown runs anywhere from +140 to +189 depending entirely on where you click, and a hundred dollars comes back as $289 instead of $240 for the crime of opening a second tab.
St. Brown is the thinner version of the same story: 43 cents plus a 1.72-cent fee is 44.72, or +124, against +115 at BetMGM. Nine cents. Real, but nothing to write home about, and I would rather say so than dress it up.
50 Cent built a whole song around clowning window shoppers. In this one corner of life, be the window shopper. Shopping for your number is not just a good idea, friends: it's the job. Do it every week and it's the entire margin between grinding out a profit and quietly donating.
Lindy’s readersEvery number in this article came off a board that shows all of it at once, which is the only way any of this works. That's the whole product — every book and the exchange on one screen, so you stop leaving 35 cents on the table out of habit. Use code
LINDY25for 25% off a week or a month of OddsShopper Pro. Get 25% Off Pro
Kincaid is the best bet on my board — the only one of these two where the price is genuinely lagging the player. St. Brown is the better football player attached to the worse number, and I'd rather say that out loud than dress him up in a costume. Two tickets, two sidelines, and one of them is carrying more of the load than the other.
If you want the game itself rather than the end zone, every number on it got run in Kalshi NFL Picks: Every Market And AI Verdict. This piece is only about the touchdowns.
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Detroit's Secondary Is Currently Held Together With Athletic Tape And Good Intentions
Nobody wants to lead with "a good team is missing its two best defensive backs," but that's the headline and pretending otherwise would cost you money.
Joseph and Branch are both parked on PUP through at least four games. What replaced them is Chuck Clark and Avonte Maddox — 17 combined seasons and 218 games between them, which is the polite way of saying these are seasoned professionals who have been seasoned professionals for a very long time. They are not the guys who left.
Losing Anzalone quietly matters just as much. Detroit's own team site spelled it out: his coverage ability is what allowed the Lions to play more base defense than any team in football last season. Without him they live in nickel, which means smaller bodies on the field and a whole lot more grass over the middle.
Week 1 was the invoice arriving. Shough dropped back 56 times, New Orleans erased a 21-0 third-quarter hole, and Detroit survived 31-30 in overtime only because a two-point conversion fell incomplete. On the season Detroit is allowing 378 passing yards a game, which is 32nd in a 32-team league, plus 469 total yards and an 80% red-zone touchdown rate.
Now, the honest counterweight, because there is one and you deserve it: the film graded out better than the box score. Detroit's coverage marks came back average-to-good across the board, Aidan Hutchinson got home twice, and Chris Olave's 182 yards were mostly a terrific receiver beating a good corner rather than a scheme melting down. Fifty-six attempts inflates every number on the page.
But 56 attempts is exactly the point. Detroit's front strangled the run, the game got handed to a quarterback, and the quarterback nearly took it.
Here's the detail that should be tattooed on tomorrow's card. Both New Orleans tight ends scored, and both scored from inside the 10. Juwan Johnson caught a nine-yard touchdown with 1:07 left to tie it. Noah Fant caught an eight-yard touchdown in overtime. Seven catches, 87 yards, two scores, zero of them from distance. Detroit didn't get beaten deep by tight ends. Detroit got beaten in a phone booth by tight ends, twice, at the worst possible moments.
And this is not a one-week fluke dressed up as a trend. In 2025 the Lions surrendered 88 receptions, 932 yards and eight touchdowns to tight ends. Mark Andrews went for 91 and a pair. That was with Joseph and Branch dressed.
Dalton Kincaid Touchdown Odds: The Guy Who Just Had The Best Game Of His Life
Dalton Kincaid has spent two and a half years being the tight end Buffalo drafted in the first round and then mostly forgot to throw to. He's been the football equivalent of a gym membership you keep paying for.
Then Week 1 happened: five catches, 130 yards, a career high, in his fourth season, on six targets.
The number underneath it is the one that actually moves me. 5.65 yards per route run — top three in the entire NFL across every position in Week 1. He ran those routes on 42 snaps, most of any Buffalo tight end, at roughly 70% route participation. Compare that to 2025: 60% before a knee injury, 44% after it. He is on the field in a way he has simply never been on the field.
And look at where the ball was going. Ninety-eight air yards on six targets — better than 16 yards downfield per look, from a tight end. New coordinator Pete Carmichael spent 17 years in New Orleans under Sean Payton, and he did not come to Buffalo to hand this man dump-offs.
Kalshi has him 32 bid, 33 ask on 1+ touchdowns. Add the 1.55-cent fee, you're in at 34.55, and that's +189.
Here's the base rate, which is the whole ballgame. Kincaid scored in 5-of-12 games last season. That's 41.7%. All five were single-touchdown games — he's not a multi-score guy, he's a once-in-a-while guy who happens to be once-in-a-while at a much higher clip than his reputation. Fair value on a 41.7% outcome sits right around +140. You're being charged 34.55 cents for it.
Eight points of probability, sitting in the open, on a night when the defense across from him just gave up two short touchdowns to tight ends and is missing both safeties. Somewhere Happy Gilmore is screaming at Bob Barker that the price is wrong.
Dalton Kincaid — YES on 1+ TouchdownsPrice: 33¢
After fee : 34.55¢
Effective : +189
Take it to : 38¢
The fine printJosh Allen is the single biggest threat to this ticket and it isn't close. In Week 1 he took both short scores himself — a 21-yard run and a one-yard sneak — and he's rushed for 12 or more touchdowns in back-to-back seasons. Every keeper inside the 5 is a Kincaid target that never gets thrown. Also worth knowing: those five scores in 2025 came on his lowest target volume as a pro, after two-touchdown seasons in 2023 and 2024. And this price has run hard, from 21 bid on Tuesday to 32 bid now, so somebody got here before me.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown: The Corner Buffalo Forgot To Replace
Amon-Ra St. Brown opened his season with 14 targets, 10 catches and two touchdowns, including the four-yard game-winner in overtime, on 69 of 77 snaps. His target share was 35.9% and he was targeted on 0.36 of the routes he ran — better than one out of every three. Zero drops.
He is also, on the raw base rate, priced about where he belongs. St. Brown scored in 7-of-17 games in 2025, or 41.2%, and the exchange wants 44.72 cents after the fee. I'm not going to stand up here and tell you a number slightly north of a man's historical rate is a screaming bargain. It isn't, and anybody who says otherwise is selling you something.
What makes it playable is the matchup, and the matchup is ugly for Buffalo.
Taron Johnson — the slot corner who anchored that defense for years — got traded to Las Vegas because he didn't fit Jim Leonhard's new 3-4. His replacement is Dee Alford, a 28-year-old who came up undrafted out of Division II Tusculum and spent last season in Atlanta allowing a 67% completion rate and four touchdowns in coverage. In Week 1 Alford graded 52.4 — 65th out of 91 corners — and the write-ups on him were about miscommunication and handing out too much separation.
Buffalo's own beat writers said this week that Alford "will need to keep St. Brown in check" and called it a harder job than the one he just botched. That's their guys saying it, not me.
Now stack the scheme on top. Buffalo played 76.7% zone against just 13.7% man in Week 1, in sub packages on 59% of snaps. Loads of nickel, loads of zone, against a receiver whose average depth of target was 5.2 yards. Option routes versus soft zone at four yards downfield is the exact meal this man has eaten every Sunday for four years.
Amon-Ra St. Brown — YES on 1+ TouchdownsPrice: 43¢
After fee : 44.72¢
Effective : +124
Take it to : 45¢
The fine printThis is the thinner of the two and I've told you why. Two things can sink it. One: Detroit is starting a patchwork offensive line. Rookie right tackle Blake Miller and left guard Christian Mahogany are both out, and center Cade Mays is on IR with a fractured wrist — three starters, on the road, in primetime, against a front that produced three sacks and nine quarterback hits in Week 1. Two: his Week 1 line was 67 yards on 14 targets, which is enormous volume at almost no depth, and his yards per route run fell from 2.48 last season to 1.72. The touchdowns rescued an otherwise quiet afternoon. If Detroit has to keep bodies in to protect Goff, the volume goes with them.
How I'd Size It
I put a quarter unit on each, which is where I land on almost everything that misses more often than it hits. Two quarter units, two sidelines, done.
That said, I would be more than fine scaling Kincaid up and I would not blink at anybody who did. He is the one where the exchange is genuinely behind the market — 34.55 cents against a man who scored in 5-of-12 games, with the books themselves 35 cents apart on him. St. Brown at 44.72 is a fair number in a great spot, and a fair number does not earn extra money. If you are adding anywhere, add to the tight end.
The downside, stated plainly: both of these need the game to look like the number says it will look. A raw September night in Orchard Park, two good defensive fronts, a 20-17 final, and you have two dead tickets and a legitimate complaint about the total.
One Touchdown Play Worth Noting For Its Absurdity
Before we get to the card, look at what the crowd actually did with this touchdown board, because it is genuinely one of the strangest things I have seen on an NFL slate this year.
The most-traded touchdown contract in this football game is Jared Goff. Not Gibbs. Not Allen. Not Cook. Jared Goff, at five cents, with 97,759 contracts through it — nearly double the next-busiest market on the board.
Jared Goff has rushed for two touchdowns in his entire career. He is 31 years old and runs like a man carrying a full cup of coffee.
And here is the punchline, because this is the part that actually costs people money. Five cents plus the fee puts you in at 5.33, which is +1776. BetMGM will pay you +2200 for the same thing. On the single most popular touchdown ticket in this game, the exchange is the worse price by more than four dollars on the dollar — and a hundred thousand contracts went through it anyway.
That is the whole lesson of this article in one row. The loudest market is almost never the best price. Here is the rest of the board so you can see where the exchange is actually worth using and where it isn't.
| Contract | Kalshi ask | Effective | Best book | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff 1+ TD | 5¢ | +1776 | +2200 | 97,759 |
| Isaac TeSlaa 1+ TD | 15¢ | +529 | +425 | 61,544 |
| Josh Allen 1+ TD | 49¢ | −103 | −140 | 51,281 |
| James Cook 1+ TD | 55¢ | −131 | −145 | 48,326 |
| Sam LaPorta 1+ TD | 29¢ | +229 | +220 | 39,885 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs 1+ TD | 69¢ | −239 | −295 | 26,003 |
| DJ Moore 1+ TD | 34¢ | +181 | +135 | 15,206 |
| Keon Coleman 1+ TD | 17¢ | +456 | +500 | 9,638 |
| Joshua Palmer 1+ TD | 13¢ | +625 | +475 | 6,607 |
Kalshi asks and volume read Wednesday evening; effective odds are fee-adjusted at the published taker rate. Book numbers from BetMGM's anytime-touchdown board at the same read. Mint means the exchange pays longer; plain means the book does. Two of the three busiest markets on this board — Goff and Keon Coleman — are ones where you should be at a sportsbook instead.
Joshua Palmer is the one I keep staring at. Thirteen cents on the exchange is +625 against +475 at the book, a dollar and a half of difference on the dollar, on a market that has moved a rounding error of the volume Goff has. The quiet corners are where the money is. They always are.
The Card, With The Fee Math
| Contract | Price | After fee | Effective | Best book | TD’s In ’25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid Yes 1+ TD | 33¢ | 34.55¢ | +189 | +175 (FanDuel) | 5-of-12 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown Yes 1+ TD | 43¢ | 44.72¢ | +124 | +115 (BetMGM) | 7-of-17 |
Kalshi bid/ask read Wednesday, September 16, 2026, 8:30 p.m. ET. Fees at the published taker rate of 0.07 × price × (1 − price). Best book is the longest number I could find across US books at the same read. "TD’s In ’25" is the number of games in which the player scored at least one touchdown.
Final Thoughts: The Thursday Night Football TD Card
Two tickets on a night the market has already told you should produce a pile of touchdowns.
Say the quiet part out loud before you click anything: both of these are more likely to miss than to hit. Kincaid's own base rate is 41.7%, St. Brown's is 41.2%. A coin that lands tails more often than heads does not become a favorite just because I found a good number on it. The edge is in the price, and only in the price. That's what the whole fee-adjusted exercise up top was about — you're getting paid +189 for something that happens a bit more than four times in 10, and that math works over a season, not over one Thursday.
Which is exactly why you keep them small. Quarter-unit stakes. No chasing if the first one dies in the second quarter. No hero sizing because the broadcast told you Buffalo can't stop anybody.
The tell in this game isn't complicated. Detroit is starting two backup safeties, no longer has the linebacker who let them play base, and in their only game so far a quarterback making his first real start threw for 410 yards while both opposing tight ends scored from inside the 10. Buffalo's tight end just posted the best game of his career and is running routes at a rate he never has before.
The exchange has that man at 33 cents. The crowd, meanwhile, put 57,754 contracts behind Jared Goff scoring a touchdown.
People are silly.
See you at kickoff.
— Lindy
Kalshi prices quoted were read from the exchange on Wednesday evening, September 16, 2026 and will move before Thursday's 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff; confirm the bid and ask before trading. Sportsbook prices are from BetMGM and FanDuel at the same read and should be re-checked at the book. Statistics cited are 2025 regular-season and Week 1 2026 figures from NFL.com, PFF, SumerSports, Sharp Football Analysis and nfelo; single-game 2026 samples are small and are labeled as such. The edges here are model estimates, not predictions of fact; nothing here is financial advice. Trading involves risk and contracts can settle at zero. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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