Bears vs Falcons Picks: Caleb Williams Is Back

Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday afternoon, October 14, 2026.

Kickoff: Sunday, October 18, 1:00 PM ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium

My buddy Ben Rasa says it all the time about Atlanta: you watch the Falcons blow someone out, you buy in, and they fall right back into finding ways to lose. They led Baltimore by a touchdown midway through the fourth quarter on Sunday night and lost to a backup quarterback. Caleb Williams was a full participant in practice on Wednesday. I'm laying it: Bears -3.

How Often Does It Actually Happen?

A betting line only tells you the price. The Sims play every game 10,000 times, so you see how often something actually happens and whether the price is worth paying. They're the same Sims behind the Stokastic.com DFS tools, where a subscriber won $1 million last week. In this game, the Sims like Drake London under 90 receiving yards: it hits in 58.5% of the Sims, and Kalshi charges 53.7¢. It works for DraftKings and FanDuel bets too. Tap a question and the Sims answer it, free, no login:

How often do the Bears win by 3+? · How often does Bijan Robinson score? · Best 2-leg combo for this game

Tap the card for the full answer.

The Game Lines

Atlanta Blew Another One

The Falcons lost 30-23 at home to the Ravens as 3.5-point favorites. Michael Penix Jr. went 19 of 32 for 240 and Drake London caught seven passes for 118, and Atlanta still lost to Tyler Huntley because it could not stop the run. Baltimore averaged 6.1 yards a carry with six runs of 10 or more. Penix took a shot to the ribs late in regulation, and Tua Tagovailoa threw the overtime interception that sealed it. Kevin Stefanski says Penix (ribs) has a chance to play this week.

Atlanta has been great or awful with nothing in between: blowouts at Green Bay and New Orleans, then 34-3 and 30-23 losses at home. It's 0-2 at home this year. Bijan Robinson and London are real, and the run defense had been good before Sunday. The pass defense is the problem, and A.J. Terrell is on injured reserve.

Chicago Gets Its Quarterback Back

The Bears lost 31-7 at Green Bay with five turnovers. Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum combined for 195 passing yards, no touchdowns and three interceptions. The Bagent experiment hasn't worked, and Keenum's good day against the Eagles looks like a one-off. You don't win consistently with either of them.

Williams (hamstring) was a full participant Wednesday, and I'm pretty sure Ben Johnson is itching to get him back on the field. I expect him to start. With him, this is a far better offense than the one we've seen the last two weeks.

The Bounce-Back Spot

Do I like betting a team to bounce back after an embarrassing blowout loss in a division game? Absolutely. The market already has Chicago as a road favorite, which tells you it expects Williams to play.

Injury Report

• Caleb Williams (CHI). Full participant Wednesday (hamstring). The pick assumes he starts; check Friday's designation.
• Michael Penix Jr. (ATL). Listed questionable (ribs). Kevin Stefanski said he has a chance to play.
• Chicago. Kyle Monangai (toe) and T.J. Edwards (hamstring) are questionable, and Montez Sweat is suspended.

My picks for the rest of Week 6 are in NFL Week 6 Predictions for Every Game.

Nothing here is financial advice.

Hero photo: All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA via Wikimedia Commons (Commanders vs. Bears (54857809842).jpg), CC BY-SA 4.0; cropped and toned.

More on this: Bears vs Packers Picks: Ugly Enough To Bet · Ravens vs Falcons Sunday Night Picks: Lamar Watch · Falcons vs Saints TD Props: My Top Two Kalshi MNF Plays · Falcons Saints Player Props: Bet Against Penix and London · Jets vs Bears Same Game Parlay: Bears Win, Allen Under 70