Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday, October 7, 2026.
Lamar Jackson has a rarer kind of ankle sprain and could miss multiple games. If you don't think he plays, you should be on the Falcons right now. This line has already moved from 2.5 to 3.5 and I could see it going further. Tyler Huntley is the backup, and Atlanta's run defense is first in the league. I already bet it: Falcons -3.5.
Disagree With Me?Good. Ask the Sims your version of this game: best parlay if Lamar Jackson plays and Baltimore wins, best Ravens parlay if Derrick Henry runs for 100. The same Sims that have won DFS players tens of millions of dollars now build parlays, free in the Kalshi Combo Simulator.
Kickoff: Sunday, October 11, 8:20 PM ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, NBC
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Falcons Win By 4 Or More | 48-49¢ | Falcons −3.5 |
| Total: Over 43.5 Points | 51-52¢ | 43.5 |
| Moneyline: Falcons Win | 60-61¢ | Falcons -175 / Ravens +145 |
On Kalshi, Atlanta winning by four or more is 48 to 49 cents, and the Falcons to win are 60 to 61 cents, about -155. If Jackson is ruled out, expect both to move. The over at 43.5 is 51 to 52 cents.
Where The Edges Are
| Matchup | Ravens | Falcons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens run game vs Falcons run D | 8th | 1st | Falcons D |
| Ravens passing game vs Falcons pass D | 2nd | 11th | Ravens O |
| Ravens pass protection vs Falcons pass rush | 3rd | 14th | Ravens O |
| Ravens explosive plays vs Falcons big-play D | 2nd | 12th | Ravens O |
| Falcons run game vs Ravens run D | 25th | 2nd | Falcons O, clearly |
| Falcons passing game vs Ravens pass D | 9th | 31st | Ravens D, clearly |
| Falcons pass protection vs Ravens pass rush | 17th | 6th | Falcons O |
| Falcons explosive plays vs Ravens big-play D | 17th | 6th | Falcons O |
Ranks out of 32 through Week 4 of 2026, nflverse play-by-play. Run game = EPA per carry, passing = EPA per dropback, protection = sacks-plus-hits rate against pressure rate, explosive = rate of completions of 20-plus. O = that offense has the edge, D = the defense does.
Without Lamar, Baltimore Is A Different Team
The Ravens beat Tennessee 24-18 and didn't cover as 11.5-point favorites. Jackson went 15 of 20 for 222 with two touchdowns before the injury, and Huntley finished 8 of 9 for 63. Derrick Henry ran 23 times for 73. Zay Flowers caught eight of 10 targets for 118.
With Jackson, Baltimore is fourth in EPA per play and second in EPA per dropback. Huntley is a poor man's version of Lamar at best, and the Ravens' run defense is 25th in EPA per carry, which is not where you want to be against this backfield.
Atlanta Runs Through People
The Falcons won 45-24 in New Orleans as 1.5-point dogs, after beating Green Bay 35-14 the week before. The offense had a 60% success rate and ran 33 times for 207 yards. Bijan Robinson went 19 for 145 and two touchdowns, Brian Robinson scored three, and Drake London caught five passes for 96. Michael Penix Jr. was 15 of 20 for 223.
Bijan Robinson is the best running back in the league, maybe the best player in it, and London is dominant. Penix doesn't need to be perfect. He has to be okay, especially if the defense holds, and Atlanta's run defense is first in EPA per carry allowed. The secondary can get sketchy, and Huntley is not the quarterback to punish it.
The Case Against
Atlanta might be getting overhyped after two big wins, and that argument is fair. With this team, just when you think they're good, they turn bad, and just when you think they're bad, they turn good. Both wins came on the road against defenses that rank 27th and 30th. If Jackson plays, the number is about right and I'd still lean Atlanta. If it's Huntley, I have to go Falcons.
The Pick
Falcons -3.5.On Kalshi, that is Atlanta to win by four or more, 48 to 49 cents.
The whole read depends on Jackson. If he is ruled out, it's the bet. If he plays, it's a lean.
Build this pick your way in the Kalshi Combo Simulator.
Injury Report
- Lamar Jackson (BAL). Ankle sprain, unlikely to play, could miss multiple games. Tyler Huntley is the backup. This line moves on the news.
- Baltimore's run defense. 25th in EPA per carry allowed, against Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson
- Indoors. Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Weather is not a factor.
My picks for the rest of Week 5 are in NFL Week 5 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: All-Pro Reels via Wikimedia Commons (Bijan Robinson 2025.jpg), CC BY-SA 4.0; cropped and toned.
