Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday, October 7, 2026.
The Packers are a bad team right now. The offensive line is atrocious, they have not covered a game all season, and they only got by Tampa Bay 17-14 last week. They are also a field-goal dog at Lambeau Field in a division game, against a Bears team without Caleb Williams and a run defense that ranks 28th. I went back and forth on this one: Packers +3.
Kickoff: Sunday, October 11, 1:00 PM ET, Lambeau Field
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Bears Win By 3 Or More | – | Bears −3 |
| Total: Over 45.5 Points | – | 45.5 |
| Moneyline: Bears Win | 58-59¢ | Bears -155 / Packers +130 |
Kalshi has no spread or total contract on this game yet. The Bears to win are 58 to 59 cents, about -140, and the Packers 41 to 42 cents, about +140. At the books it is Chicago -3 with a total of 45.5.
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Where The Edges Are
| Matchup | Bears | Packers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears run game vs Packers run D | 10th | 26th | Bears O, clearly |
| Bears passing game vs Packers pass D | 6th | 24th | Bears O, clearly |
| Bears pass protection vs Packers pass rush | 5th | 15th | Bears O |
| Bears explosive plays vs Packers big-play D | 5th | 5th | even |
| Packers run game vs Bears run D | 28th | 32nd | even |
| Packers passing game vs Bears pass D | 2nd | 16th | Bears D, clearly |
| Packers pass protection vs Bears pass rush | 6th | 24th | Bears D, clearly |
| Packers explosive plays vs Bears big-play D | 23rd | 22nd | even |
Ranks out of 32 through Week 4 of 2026, nflverse play-by-play. Run game = EPA per carry, passing = EPA per dropback, protection = sacks-plus-hits rate against pressure rate, explosive = rate of completions of 20-plus. O = that offense has the edge, D = the defense does.
Bears, best: rushing yards (2nd), ypc (5th), pass defense efficiency (2nd). Worst: explosive runs (14th), passing yards (12th), run defense efficiency (28th).
Packers, best: passing yards (14th), passing efficiency (16th), explosive passes allowed (5th). Worst: rushing yards (32nd), rushing efficiency (32nd), run defense yards (29th).
Green Bay Is Winless Against The Number
The Packers beat Tampa Bay 17-14 and pushed as three-point favorites, which makes them 0-3-1 against the spread. Jordan Love went 22 of 30 for 197 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. The offense went 2 of 11 on third down and averaged 4.3 yards a carry with a 30% stuff rate, and its three backs, Kaleb Johnson, MarShawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks, combined for 19 carries. Green Bay ranks last in the league in EPA per carry and 28th in scoring.
Love can still throw it. Matthew Golden and Christian Watson have both had big games this year, and when he gets time, the passing game works. The problem is the protection, 24th in sacks-plus-hits allowed, and an offense that cannot stay on the field long enough to use him.
Chicago's Weakness Is The Run
The Bears beat the Jets 23-12 and covered as 3.5-point favorites. They ran 90 plays to the Jets' 32, ran the ball 50 times for 231 yards, and Kyle Monangai carried 30 times for 146 and two touchdowns. Tyson Bagent went 25 of 34 for 268 with no touchdowns and an interception. He was fine. He was not inspiring.
Chicago's season has swung on the weather and the opponent: 59 points at Carolina, three points in the rain against Minnesota, then a 27-7 win over an Eagles team that looks fraudulent and the Jets. The pass defense is second in EPA per dropback, and the Bears rank sixth in pressure rate. The run defense is 28th in EPA per carry allowed. If there is a game for Green Bay to run it just well enough to sustain drives, this is it.
Divisional Dog At Home
Green Bay was favored against Atlanta at Lambeau and lost by 21, so the home field is not magic. It is still a division game, the Bears are without their starting quarterback, and a three-point home dog against the defense that can't stop the run is the spot I want. This could be a very ugly game. A field goal is a lot of points in one.
The Pick
Packers +3.Kalshi has no spread contract on this game; the Packers to win outright are 41 to 42 cents.
A field goal at home, in the division, against the 28th-ranked run defense in the league.
Ask The SimsThese Sims have won DFS players tens of millions of dollars, and now they build parlays. However you think Lambeau plays out, ask: best parlay if Kyle Monangai runs wild again, best Packers parlay if Jordan Love throws for 250, best combo if it's an ugly game under 40. You get a parlay for every script, priced off 10,000 simulations, free in the Kalshi Combo Simulator.
Injury Report
- Caleb Williams (CHI). Out. Tyson Bagent starts again.
- Green Bay's offensive line. The protection is the issue; watch the Friday report for who is starting up front.
- Weather. Outdoors at Lambeau in October. Check the wind before betting the total; Chicago's three-point game this year came in rain and wind.
My picks for the rest of Week 5 are in NFL Week 5 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: All-Pro Reels via Wikimedia Commons (2025 Commanders at Packers 04.jpg), CC BY-SA 4.0; cropped and toned.
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