Texans vs Jaguars London Picks: The Jags Got Lucky

Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday afternoon, October 14, 2026.

Kickoff: Sunday, October 18, 9:30 AM ET, London

Jacksonville stayed in London after a fortunate win over the Eagles, and I understand why people like that. It isn't a big edge. This isn't Australia or Singapore. Houston still has a very good defense, a healthier Nico Collins, and a division rival to keep close. I don't expect the Texans to win outright, but I expect a close game: Texans +3.

How Often Does It Actually Happen?

A betting line only tells you the price. The Sims play every game 10,000 times, so you see how often something actually happens and whether the price is worth paying. They're the same Sims behind the Stokastic.com DFS tools, where a subscriber won $1 million last week. In this game, the Sims like C.J. Stroud 10+ rushing yards: it hits in 57.2% of the Sims, and Kalshi charges 52.7¢. It works for DraftKings and FanDuel bets too. Tap a question and the Sims answer it, free, no login:

How often do the Texans cover +3? · How often does Nico Collins score? · Best 2-leg combo for this game

Tap the card for the full answer.

The Game Lines

Jacksonville Got Bailed Out

The Jaguars beat Philadelphia 19-17 as 7.5-point favorites and nowhere near covered. Without Parker Washington they stall all day. He caught six passes for 124 yards and two touchdowns, including a 51-yarder, and Brenton Strange added seven catches for 68. Outside of those two, Trevor Lawrence's offense was quiet.

The win came down to Nick Sirianni's decision not to kick the ball out of the end zone at the end. Baltimore beat Dallas in a similar finish a couple of weeks back, but the Ravens had a timeout left. Jacksonville didn't. Lawrence would have needed to get from the 35 into field goal range and out of bounds with no timeout. Philadelphia made it possible.

Houston's Defense Is Still Good

The Texans got their first win last week, 26-3 at Tennessee, with no turnovers and C.J. Stroud going 26 of 34 for 261. You can argue the defense looks worse than in past seasons, and by the numbers you'd be right. I'm not convinced it's true on the field. It held Cam Ward to 170 yards. Jalen Pitre is doubtful with a shoulder injury, which doesn't help.

Houston can't run the ball (3.2 yards a carry last week), and David Montgomery is doubtful with a groin injury. I don't expect Jacksonville to run much either. The Jaguars' games are 1-4 to the over, and the last five meetings were decided by three, four, three, seven and seven points.

Marvin Harrison Jr. Could Debut

Houston traded for Marvin Harrison Jr. during Arizona's Week 5 game. If he plays in London, Stroud gets his Ohio State teammate opposite Nico Collins. It's a division game and Houston is a 1-4 team playing for its season. That's enough for me at three.

Injury Report

• David Montgomery (HOU). Listed doubtful (groin).
• Jalen Pitre (HOU). Listed doubtful (shoulder).
• Marvin Harrison Jr. (HOU). Traded from Arizona during Week 5; watch whether he is active for his first game with Houston.
• Neutral site. Jacksonville is the designated home team at Wembley. Both teams travel; the Jaguars just stayed.

My picks for the rest of Week 6 are in NFL Week 6 Predictions for Every Game.

Nothing here is financial advice.

Hero photo: All-Pro Reels via Wikimedia Commons (Trevor Lawrence (52377887812).jpg), CC BY-SA 2.0; cropped and toned.

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