What I asked: "How often does C.J. Stroud have 31+ pass attempts?"
The answer: 79.4% of 10,000 Sims, against a 74.4¢ price on Kalshi. 5.0¢ of edge, the widest gap on Houston's board for Sunday morning at Wembley.
The answer card from Ask the Sims in the Kalshi Combo Simulator, Friday, 4:21 p.m. CT. It counts the Sims and lists the nearest Kalshi lines. Tap it to ask your own Stroud question.
Kalshi has Stroud's 31-attempt line at 73¢ for Sunday's 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff, 74.4¢ with the fee. The Sims, 10,000 runs of Texans at Jaguars from Friday afternoon with David Montgomery out and Tank Dell on injured reserve, clear 31 in 79.4% of games and put his median at 36. You lay nearly three to one on something the Sims say happens four times in five.
Disagree with the Sims?Ask them your version: Stroud at a different line, Stroud if Houston leads at half, Stroud if Jacksonville covers. Every answer comes from the same 10,000 runs, priced beside Kalshi, in the free Kalshi Combo Simulator.
Three Rungs, Two Pay
Kalshi lists three attempt lines for Stroud. The bottom two are the bets.
| Stroud pass attempts | Sims (Friday) | Kalshi (Friday) | Gap now |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31+ | 79.4% | 74.4¢ | 5.0¢ of edge |
| 36+ | 54.7% | 53.7¢ | 1.0¢ of edge |
| 41+ | 28.4% | 30.4¢ | 2¢ against you, a thin book |
The 41-attempt line is a thin book, a few cents wide with no trades, and the Sims put it at 28.4%, 2¢ under the price. Everything the market got wrong sits on the two rungs below it.
Why The Market Stopped At 31
Stroud's five games read 38, 55, 27, 31 and 34 attempts: four clearances of 31, an average of 37, and the one miss the 27-attempt game against Indianapolis, a 19-17 loss. Set the line from the log and 31 is a 4-in-5 shot. The market has it at 73¢ because the two games that pushed the average up, 55 attempts against Cincinnati and 38 against Buffalo, were losses the Texans chased, and a bettor's instinct is to discount chasing.
The Sims do not discount it. They price Sunday's matchup, and three things in it push the attempt count up. Montgomery is out and Houston averaged 79 rushing yards a game with him, so there is no run game to shorten the afternoon the way the Colts game was shortened. Jacksonville is favored by 2.5 on ESPN's line and wins 55.1% of the Sims, which puts Houston behind in most runs, and a trailing offense throws. And Houston's own pace is high: Stroud averages 37 attempts a game, a shade above the Sims' median of 36.
The 41-attempt card, Friday, 4:21 p.m. CT, with its own Kalshi price. The top rung is fair; the money is two rungs lower.
The Yards Go The Other Way
The attempts and the yards do not tell the same story, and that is the second bet. Stroud averages 280 passing yards a game, and the market has his 275-yard line at 40.7¢ to hit. The Sims put his median at 239 and clear 275 in 29.4% of games. More throws, shorter ones: Dell's targets go to Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz underneath, Jacksonville's defense has six interceptions in five games, and a quarterback trailing against a ball-hawking secondary takes the checkdown. NO on 275 at 63.6¢ against 70.6% is 7.0¢ of edge, and it is the second bet on the picks page.
The completions line is the one rung on Stroud's board with nothing in it. He completes 64% of his throws, which puts 36 attempts at 23 completions on the nose, and Kalshi prices 23+ at 54.7¢ against 49.0% in the Sims. The attempts carry the edge; the completions follow the attempts without carrying any.
The other side of the headline line is the price of betting on a quiet Houston morning: under 31 attempts costs 29.1¢ for something the Sims give 20.6%. That is 8.5¢ against you, the worst price on Stroud's board.
What The Pairs Say
Ask the Sims prices combinations from the same runs, and the pairs tell you which second leg belongs with this one. The card's own pairing, Stroud 31+ attempts with Nico Collins 8+ receptions, hits together 13% more often than the two prices imply, because the attempts and Collins's targets rise together, and the card still marks the pair negative value at Kalshi's combined price, 20.4¢ in the Sims against 21.3¢ expected. Correlation is not enough on its own; the second leg has to carry its own edge. Stroud 31+ attempts and NO on 275 yards is the pair this page is built on: the Sims give the two together far more often than the product of two independent prices, because they are one script, a trailing offense throwing short.
The pair to avoid is Stroud 31+ attempts with Jacksonville to win. It feels like the same story, and it is, which is the problem: you are paying twice for Houston trailing, and Jacksonville at 58.7¢ costs more than the 55.1% the Sims give it.
The bets:
- Buy YES on C.J. Stroud 31+ pass attempts at 74.4¢ (-291). 79.4% in the Sims, 5.0¢ of edge, four clearances in five games, and no run game to shorten the afternoon.
- Lean YES on C.J. Stroud 36+ pass attempts at 53.7¢ (-116). 54.7% in the Sims, 1.0¢ of edge at near even money; hold this or the 31 line, not both.
- Pair it with NO on 275 passing yards, not with the Jaguars. The yards leg is the same script at 7.0¢ of edge; the moneyline is the same script at 3.6¢ against you.
- The injury report is Thursday's. Montgomery and Jalen Pitre are out on ESPN's Thursday listing, Dell is on injured reserve; if Houston's Sunday inactives add a receiver, ask again before you buy. The number moves with the lineup, as Jalen Hurts's did in London last week.
Prices: Kalshi, Friday, Oct. 16, 2026, 4:21 p.m. CT, as shown on the two cards; the other lines from the same pull, including the taker fee. Sims run Friday, 3:50 p.m. CT. Game logs and injury statuses from ESPN, read Friday. Kickoff Sunday, Oct. 18, 9:30 a.m. ET at Wembley Stadium. Prices move; check Kalshi before you buy.
Hero photo: Tennessee Titans via Wikimedia Commons (CJ Stroud Texans vs Titans NOV2024.png), licensed CC BY 3.0; cropped.
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