Week 2 concludes at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles tonight, where the road Giants want to keep the momentum going from last week's primetime W and the home team Rams plan on using one of those Men In Black flashes in pregame warmups to try and forget about the horrors of their Week 1. Los Angeles is still favored by a touchdown with the total sitting at-or-around 47.5 depending on where you look, but the interesting part of this touchdown board on Kalshi isn't what's on top of it: it's the middle. Two tight ends linger in the range like afterthoughts in a game that is going to be played almost entirely out of heavy personnel.
Let's get to work.
Play #1: Isaiah Likely, 24¢ (+296 Effective)
Likely signed with New York in March, following John Harbaugh to the Giants like this was a college coach changing schools. Then he spent Week 1 recapturing the magic for his ol' ball coach: 8 targets, 8 catches, 78 yards and two touchdowns in a 28-20 win over Dallas. Both scores came from Jaxson Dart, from 15 and 2 yards out respectively.
The usage underneath it all is what really matters most to me. Theo Johnson played nearly the same number of snaps, 32 to Likely's 34, and drew a grand total of one target. Likely, on the other hand, drew eight. Likely also ran 22 routes to Johnson's 14. That is not a timeshare, but more of a starter and a blocker who happen to be on the field for the same amount of time.
Dart was 23-of-29 for 230 yards and three scores with a 134.2 rating. The Giants converted 9-of-11 on third down, the best mark in the league in Week 1, and they scored four times from inside the 20. And useful for our purposes, two of those four went to Likely.
As for the Rams defensive unit, they'll be without Myles Garrett who landed on injured reserve after knee surgery, meaning he'll miss at a minimum the next four games. And even with him, Los Angeles generated zero sacks and two quarterback hits in Week 1 against San Francisco. Safety Kamren Kinchens is ruled out tonight with a hamstring. A quarterback with a clean pocket and a tight end who gets the ball at the goal line is the exact shape of a bet I want at this number.
BetMGM had Likely at +230 as of Sunday morning. Kalshi's 24¢ works out to +296 after the fee. Same bet, 66 cents more on the dollar.
Play #2: Colby Parkinson, 24¢ (+296 Effective)
This is the one the market — or anyone, for that matter — hasn't sorted out yet.
Puka Nacua did not practice Friday or Saturday and is questionable with a hip. Adam Schefter posted Sunday that Nacua is trending "the wrong way" for Week 2, and said on Sunday NFL Countdown that he's more likely to sit than to suit up and play through it. Jay Glazer's read was that Nacua would have to convince the staff he's good to go. Jordan Whittington is doubtful with a quad. If both are down, the Rams' receiver room behind Davante Adams is Xavier Smith, Konata Mumpfield, and whoever they elevate.
Here's how slow this particular board has been to react. As of Monday morning, Kalshi still had Nacua's own 1+ touchdown contract bid at 45¢ and offered at 48¢, priced like a man who is playing. That's the tell. The Nacua news has moved the sportsbooks and it has not yet moved this event.
Everyone's instinct is to buy Adams. The books already did that, and then some. He opened the week around +170 and BetMGM had him at +105 by Sunday morning. Kalshi's 49¢ ask is -103 after the fee, so you would be paying the exchange more than the book charges for the identical outcome. There's no edge left there even with Nacua out. And Yahoo's Week 1 charting had Adams on the field for 54% of snaps and one of seven snaps inside the 10, because Sean McVay spent the afternoon in three-tight-end sets.
Which is the actual tell. The Rams ran 13 personnel on 36.8% of their 57 snaps in Week 1, up from 30.5% in 2025, and that 2025 rate already led the league. The reporting out of Los Angeles this week is that with the receivers thinned out they lean harder on tight ends and the run game, not less.
Parkinson is the tight end who benefits. He led the Rams' four-man tight end room in Week 1 in snaps (75%) and routes (17), ahead of Terrance Ferguson, Davis Allen and Tyler Higbee. He is not on the injury report. And last season he caught 43 balls for eight touchdowns, with a team-leading 15 red-zone catches per Next Gen Stats.
The run-game touchdowns are spoken for. Kyren Williams was on the field for all six Rams snaps inside the 10 in Week 1 and took all four red-zone carries, one of them for a score. Blake Corum got zero. So if Los Angeles is going to throw one in from close, the grouping they run most often tells you who is out there to catch it.
Now look at where the money actually is. Ferguson's 1+ touchdown contract has traded about 24,600 contracts with roughly 24,500 still open. Parkinson's has traded 459, with 459 open. Same tight end room, same game, and the deep market sits on the second-year backup while the man who led that room in snaps, routes and red-zone production goes essentially untraded. That gap is the play.
BetMGM has Parkinson at +210. Kalshi's 24¢ is +296 after the fee. That is a full point of price on the same contract.
One honest warning about that thinness: 459 contracts is not much depth. If you're putting real money on this one you may not get the whole thing filled at 24¢, so decide in advance what price you'll stop paying.
How I'd Size It
Both of these are longshots by construction and I'd treat them that way: a quarter unit on Likely, a quarter unit on Parkinson. Likely's case doesn't depend on any news between now and kickoff. Parkinson's gets better if Nacua sits and is still fine if he doesn't, because the 13-personnel rate and the red-zone role were both true in Week 1 with a healthy receiver room.
Inactives post about 90 minutes before kickoff, so roughly 6:45 ET. Two ways that goes. If Nacua is ruled out and Parkinson is still in the low 20s, that's your moment. If the market wakes up first and Parkinson climbs into the 30s, the edge against BetMGM's +210 is gone, and I'd let it go rather than chase it.
The Fee Math
Kalshi charges a taker fee of 7% of price times one-minus-price, rounded to the cent. Both of tonight's plays sit at 24¢, where the fee is 1.28¢, so you're really paying 25.28¢ a contract. Convert that to American odds and you get the effective price in the table below.
The fee bites hardest on contracts priced near a coin flip, which is exactly why the Adams number falls apart: 49¢ looks like even money and costs 50.75¢. Kalshi rounds up at settlement, so treat every effective number here as a ceiling and not a floor. These are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
Shop it either way. BetMGM is the best number I can attribute on both of these right now, but DraftKings, FanDuel and Caesars all price this board and they do not price it identically. Taking the first number you see is the most expensive habit in this hobby.
The Card
Both contracts sit on the same Kalshi event for Giants at Rams. Prices as of Monday, September 21, 2026, 1:05 PM ET, with the effective column already net of the taker fee.
| Contract | Price | After fee | Effective | Best book | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely Yes 1+ TD | 24¢ | 25.28¢ | +296 | +230 (BetMGM) | NYG at LAR |
| Colby Parkinson Yes 1+ TD | 24¢ | 25.28¢ | +296 | +210 (BetMGM) | NYG at LAR |
Likely's contract has traded roughly 16,900 with about 16,700 still open. Parkinson's has traded 459. Both prices will move before kickoff.
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Final Thoughts
The shape of this game is a Rams team that wants to grind, a Giants offense that was ruthlessly efficient in the opener, and a Los Angeles pass rush missing its best player. Both of my plays are tight ends, which is not something I set out to do. It's where the board left value after everyone piled onto the obvious Nacua replacement.
Watch the 6:45 inactives. Then go get your number.
— Lindy
More on this: NFL 2026 on Kalshi: 49 Live Boards, 10 Days To Kickoff · Can Five AI Models Beat The Market On Kalshi Player Props? · NFL Week 1 Kalshi Player Props: Six Contracts That Stick Out · 49ers vs Rams Kalshi Player Props: Who Gets Fed In Melbourne · Patriots vs Seahawks Kalshi Player Props: Seattle Gives Up Catches, Not Yards
