Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday, October 7, 2026.
This is going to be a really fun game to watch and a miserable one to bet. Both of these teams are very good. Seattle is the defending Super Bowl champion with a top-three defense, and San Francisco is 4-0 with the best offense in the league by EPA. I'll take the home team inside of a field goal, and I don't love it: lean Seahawks -2.5.
Kickoff: Sunday, October 11, 4:25 PM ET, Lumen Field
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Seahawks Win By 3 Or More | 55-56¢ | Seahawks −2.5 |
| Total: Over 46.5 Points | 48-49¢ | 46.5 |
| Moneyline: Seahawks Win | 60-61¢ | Seahawks -155 / 49ers +130 |
On Kalshi, Seattle winning by three or more is 55 to 56 cents, and the Seahawks to win are 60 to 61 cents, about -155. The over at 46.5 is 48 to 49 cents.
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Where The Edges Are
| Matchup | 49ers | Seahawks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers run game vs Seahawks run D | 11th | 4th | Seahawks D |
| 49ers passing game vs Seahawks pass D | 1st | 7th | 49ers O |
| 49ers pass protection vs Seahawks pass rush | 1st | 4th | even |
| 49ers explosive plays vs Seahawks big-play D | 4th | 3rd | even |
| Seahawks run game vs 49ers run D | 19th | 28th | 49ers D |
| Seahawks passing game vs 49ers pass D | 18th | 10th | Seahawks O |
| Seahawks pass protection vs 49ers pass rush | 26th | 21st | Seahawks O |
| Seahawks explosive plays vs 49ers big-play D | 2nd | 8th | 49ers D |
Ranks out of 32 through Week 4 of 2026, nflverse play-by-play. Run game = EPA per carry, passing = EPA per dropback, protection = sacks-plus-hits rate against pressure rate, explosive = rate of completions of 20-plus. O = that offense has the edge, D = the defense does.
49ers, best: offense overall (1st), success rate (1st), explosive runs allowed (1st). Worst: rushing efficiency (11th), ypc (9th), pass rush (26th).
Seahawks, best: ypa (4th), explosive passes (8th), pass defense yards (2nd). Worst: rushing efficiency (28th), pass protection (21st), pass rush (10th).
Seattle's Defense Carries It
The Seahawks beat the Chargers 30-23 and pushed as seven-point favorites. Emanuel Wilson took the lion's share of the work, 21 carries for 81 yards and two touchdowns, and it didn't matter that Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a quiet day (five catches, 76 yards) because the defense controlled the game. Seattle is third in EPA per play allowed, fourth in pressure rate and fourth against the run.
The loss to Washington was a loss, 33-31 in Week 3 as an 8.5-point favorite. It is not going to define their season.
Purdy Keeps San Francisco Dangerous
The 49ers beat Denver 24-14 and covered as three-point favorites. Brock Purdy went 19 of 29 for 218 with two touchdowns, and San Francisco is first in EPA per play, first in EPA per dropback, and first in fewest sacks-plus-hits allowed. It allows 16 points a game, third in the league.
The injuries keep coming. Nick Bosa is doubtful again, and Kyle Juszczyk isn't expected to play, which hurts the run game more than it looks. For the most part, though, they are healthier than they've been, and as long as Purdy plays like this, they make it difficult for anyone they face.
The Pick
Lean Seahawks -2.5.On Kalshi, Seattle to win by three or more is 55 to 56 cents.
One of my least favorite games of the week. The home team inside a field goal is the lean, and that's all it is.
Ask The SimsOur Sims have won DFS players tens of millions of dollars. Now they build parlays. Ask them both ways: best parlay if Seattle's defense controls the game, best 49ers parlay if Brock Purdy throws for 275, best combo if it's decided by a field goal. Each script gets its own combos, priced off 10,000 simulations, free in the Kalshi Combo Simulator.
Injury Report
- Nick Bosa (SF). Doubtful again.
- Kyle Juszczyk (SF). Not expected to play.
- Seattle's backfield. Emanuel Wilson took the lead role last week: 21 carries, two touchdowns.
- Weather. Outdoors in Seattle.
My picks for the rest of Week 5 are in NFL Week 5 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: Tennessee Titans via Wikimedia Commons (Sam Darnold 11 2 2025.jpg), CC BY 4.0; cropped and toned.
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