Keon Coleman caught a seven-yard touchdown for us on Monday night, which means the touchdown train survived its first trip outside the tight end room in quite some time. Dalton Kincaid didn't join him, but anybody following along on X (@EricLindquist) also cashed Blake Corum, who I added after the article went up. Went over 4 units on touchdowns alone last week (absolutely absurd), so let's keep the train rolling into Thursday.
Seattle visits Denver in a meeting of two 3-2 teams, with the Seahawks laying 2.5 at Empower Field and a 40.5 total. A total that low usually means the touchdowns go to whomever the offense trusts most, and there's no debate about who that is on Seattle's side.
I'm also bringing a friend to this one. Stokastic's Ask the Sims plays every NFL game 10,000 times, snap by snap, so each of those games has a final score and a full box score. You ask about any Kalshi market in plain English, and it tells you how often that bet cashed across all 10,000 games, what it should cost, and whether Kalshi's price is a deal once the fee is in. I ran every touchdown contract in this game through it on Wednesday night, and it called most of the board overpriced. Two contracts came back as clear value, plus a third it called fair that gets a lot better at a sportsbook, and all three are on this card.
The Sims also hand you the game script. Seattle won 5,672 of the 10,000 simulations, and that split matters for both plays below, because each one cashes a lot more often when its own team wins.
Play #1: Half of Seattle's Air Yards, 47¢ (+105 Effective)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has seven touchdowns through five games, accounting for seven of the 11 touchdown passes Seattle has thrown in the Year of our Lord 2026. He's drawing 31.6% of the targets and 50.7% of the air yards, good for a 0.83 WOPR, and he's making them count at 0.69 EPA per target: 37 catches for 583 yards, with 100-plus yards in four of his five games.
He scores from everywhere, too. He took one 82 yards against Arizona and another 45 against New England, but five of the seven came inside the 20, including scores from the 1, the 7 and the 11. He has 11 red-zone targets while nobody else on the roster has more than five, and six of his targets have come in the end zone.
Denver's defense is the obstacle. The Broncos rank fourth-best against the pass by EPA per dropback and have allowed seven passing touchdowns all season, though corners Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss both missed Week 5 and are questionable again Thursday. The other thing working against him lives in his own backfield: Emanuel Wilson has 11 of Seattle's 17 carries inside the 10, and Denver's run defense ranks third-worst by EPA per rush, so the Seahawks have every reason to hand it off near the goal line.
Ask the Sims has Smith-Njigba scoring in 51.4% of its 10,000 games, about -106, against a Kalshi price that costs 48.7¢ once you add the fee. That's about 6¢ of edge per dollar, and when I asked it about two touchdowns, it pointed me right back to this one as the better bet. It projects him for 0.7 touchdowns, the most of anyone in the game, and it leans the other way on Wilson: 41.0% in the sims against 46.7¢ on Kalshi.
Split it by result and the case gets louder. In the 5,672 games Seattle won, Smith-Njigba scored in 59.8% of them, which would be -149 if Kalshi let you bet it that way. Even in the 4,247 Denver wins, he found the end zone 41.7% of the time. Kalshi doesn't sell "when" bets, but you can get close with a combo: the Sims price a Smith-Njigba touchdown plus a Seattle win at 34.3¢, against an expected Kalshi quote around 31¢.
Now, about that second touchdown. Smith-Njigba already has two multi-score games, three against Arizona in Week 2 and two against Washington in Week 3. Kalshi has him at 12¢ for 2+, or +685 effective, and the Sims land at 13.0% (1,295 of 10,000 games), which they grade as fair value against the 12.7¢ fee-in cost. That's exactly why I played it at FanDuel instead: +750 implies 11.8%, so the same bet that's merely fair on Kalshi comes with real cushion at the book. The Sims also pair it with Sam Darnold throwing two-plus touchdowns, and the two hit together 115% more often than their prices imply, 12.4¢ in the sims against an expected Kalshi quote of 10.4¢. Treat it as a sprinkle on top of the main ticket.
On the 1+, DraftKings has the best number in town at +110, which is the price I'm grabbing myself, so shop for it if you can. Caesars has +107 and FanDuel +105, and Kalshi's 47¢ works out to +105 after the fee.
Play #2: A Snap Count Headed North, 11¢ (+755 Effective)
With Pat Bryant on injured reserve, Troy Franklin's snap share has climbed from 18% in Week 3 to 48% in Week 4 and 63% in Week 5. Bryant had 13 targets and a touchdown before he went down, and those routes now belong to Franklin.
The production hasn't followed yet. Franklin has a grand total of six targets this season, four catches for 64 yards, with one red-zone target and one end-zone look. This is a role bet at a long price, and Denver's touchdown passes have no pecking order to fight through: Bo Nix has thrown six of them to five different players.
Seattle's defense ranks second-best in the league by EPA per play and is even stingier against the run, so if the Broncos score, odds are it comes through the air. The Seahawks have allowed eight passing touchdowns in five games.
The Sims have Franklin scoring in 14.0% of their games, 1,400 of 10,000 or about +614, against an 11.7¢ fee-in price. That's 2.3¢ of edge on an 11.7¢ ticket, the most edge per dollar of anything on this card. It ran the other way on Denver's more popular names, with Courtland Sutton at 19.4% against 27.3¢ and RJ Harvey at 20.4% against 26.3¢.
Franklin's number climbs to 16.9% in the 4,247 games Denver wins, which tracks, since the Broncos probably have to throw their way past that Seattle run defense to get there. The Sims say a Franklin touchdown and Bo Nix throwing two-plus touchdowns hit together 82% more often than their prices imply, and they price Franklin plus a Denver win at 7.2¢ against an expected Kalshi quote of 5.9¢.
DraftKings and FanDuel both have Franklin at +750 and Caesars has +700, while Kalshi's 11¢ works out to +755 after the fee. He probably needs one big play to get there, so he gets the smaller stake.
Five Combos the Sims Like
None of these are on the official card, but if you like building Kalshi combos, here's what the Sims would put together from these same legs. The Sims column is how often the combo hit across the 10,000 games, and the expected Kalshi column is the Sims' estimate of what Kalshi's market makers will quote for it:
| Combo | Sims | Expected Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Smith-Njigba TD + Seahawks win | 34.3¢ | 31.0¢ |
| Smith-Njigba 2+ TDs + Darnold 2+ passing TDs | 12.4¢ | 10.4¢ |
| Franklin TD + Nix 2+ passing TDs | 8.3¢ | 6.7¢ |
| Franklin TD + Broncos win | 7.2¢ | 5.9¢ |
| Smith-Njigba 2+ TDs + Franklin TD | 2.0¢ | 1.4¢ |
That last one cashed in 204 of the 10,000 sims, roughly +4800, so treat it like the lottery ticket it is. Combo quotes move around more than single contracts do, so check the live price in Kalshi's builder before you buy, and pass if it's above the Sims number.
The Fee Math
Always a reminder for the fine folks newer to playing on Kalshi: they charge a taker fee of 7% of price times one-minus-price, rounded to the cent. In plain English, for Smith-Njigba's 47¢ you're adding on 1.74¢, so you're really paying 48.74¢. His 2+ at 12¢ adds 0.74¢ for 12.74¢, and Franklin's 11¢ adds 0.69¢ for 11.69¢. Kalshi rounds up at settlement, so treat every effective number here as a ceiling and not a floor.
Also, these are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. And just like at a sportsbook, this is a constantly moving market, so all prices are subject to change. Check actives and inactives 90 minutes before kickoff (especially Surtain and Moss), make sure you're getting the best price possible, and enjoy the show.
The Official Card
All three contracts sit on the Seahawks at Broncos touchdown tab on Kalshi. Prices are accurate as of Wednesday, October 14, 2026, 7:00 PM ET. The effective column accounts for the taker fee, and the Sims column is the scoring probability from Ask the Sims:
| Contract | Price | After fee | Effective | Sims | Best book | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba Yes 1+ TD | 47¢ | 48.74¢ | +105 | 51.4% | +110 (DraftKings) | 0.5u |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba Yes 2+ TD | 12¢ | 12.74¢ | +685 | 13.0% | +750 (FanDuel) | 0.1u |
| Troy Franklin Yes 1+ TD | 11¢ | 11.69¢ | +755 | 14.0% | +750 (DraftKings) | 0.1u |
Liquidity won't be a problem on any of these. Smith-Njigba's 1+ has traded about 33,200 contracts with roughly 41,500 sitting at the quoted price, his 2+ has traded about 48,800, and Franklin's has traded about 17,000 with roughly 26,700 at the ask.
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Final Thoughts
Seattle's best player against a defense that has been tough on everybody, plus a long shot on the Denver receiver whose role just grew. Smith-Njigba's 1+ misses a little more than half the time, the 2+ about seven times out of eight, and Franklin's nearly nine times out of 10, so size them like it.
As always: no chasing, and no hero sizing on a Thursday. Trade smart, trade responsibly, and enjoy the show.
— Lindy
More on this: Thursday Night Football Picks: Denver's Corners In Doubt · Seahawks vs Broncos Anytime TD Picks: Seven In Five Games · Sam Darnold Completions Thursday: 19 Is The Number · Bo Nix Passing Yards Prop: The 200-Yard Parlay I'm Betting · Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards: 90 Is a Coin Flip. Bet the Catches.
