The Sims have Bo Nix over 199.5 passing yards against Seattle 53.8% of the time (fair -116), and DraftKings deals -113. That's three cents of value on a near coin flip. My bet is Nix 200+ passing yards with under 4.5 rush attempts. The Sims make that parlay +216, DraftKings should price it around +245, and I'd bet it down to +230.
Fifteen of you asked the Sims about Nix in the last day, and his yards came up most. One reader typed "Does Bo Nix throw for over 201.5" and then "Bo Nix under 202 passing yards" 11 seconds later. Hard to blame them. His median in the Sims is 205 yards.
The Sims come from Stokastic, our sister site. They run Seahawks-Broncos 10,000 times and show how often your bet cashes against the DraftKings or FanDuel price. Asking is free.
Nix's Two Ways to 200
Seattle has held all five quarterbacks it's faced under 190, and Nix averages 188 a game. The Sims still get him to 54% two ways.
When Denver wins, he clears 200 in 61.4% of Sims. When Seattle wins, it's still 47.4%, because he throws 35+ passes in 55% of those games, the way he got 214 on 42 throws at San Francisco.
Bo Nix over 199.5 passing yards: 53.8% in the Sims. DraftKings -113, Kalshi 53 cents (about -111). FanDuel's 200.5 at -114 is a worse number, 53.1% in the Sims. See it in the Sims →
Nix 200+ and over 40.5 total points: 33.0% in the Sims. Fair price is +203, and DraftKings should price it around +217. If you see a track meet, that's your version. See it in the Sims →
Nix Isn't Running
Three of you asked about his rushing yards. He hasn't run for more than 10 in any game, and the bet I like is that he barely runs at all. He averages 3.6 carries, has stayed under five in four of five starts, and the Sims have under 4.5 rush attempts at 62.4%.
That's the leg with the edge: -149 at DraftKings against -166 in the Sims. Add the 200+ leg and you get about +245 on something the Sims make +216.
Nix 200+ passing yards and under 4.5 rush attempts: 31.6% in the Sims, fair +216. See it in the Sims →
My Nix Ticket
Nix 200+ passing yards and under 4.5 rush attempts at DraftKings, down to +230. If the app quotes shorter than +230, bet under 4.5 rush attempts by itself at -149.
Got another Seahawks-Broncos prop? Plug it into the DraftKings or FanDuel simulator.
Prices as of Wed Oct 14, 8:29 a.m. (DraftKings), 8:10 a.m. (FanDuel) and 9:44 a.m. (Kalshi) CT. Sims run Wed 8:17 a.m. CT. Parlay prices are estimates until you build them in the app.
Photo of Bo Nix: Tennessee Titans, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
More on this: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards: 90 Is a Coin Flip. Bet the Catches. · Thursday Night Football Picks: Denver's Corners In Doubt · What If Seahawks-Broncos Was Played 10,000 Times? · Broncos vs 49ers Same Game Parlay: Bo Nix Under 250 · Chargers vs Seahawks Same Game Parlay: Darnold Stays Quiet
