Jaxon Smith-Njigba gets 90 receiving yards in 52.5% of our 10,000 Sims of Thursday's game in Denver. His line is 93.5 at -112 both ways at DraftKings and 91.5 at -114 at FanDuel, and neither side clears the juice. My bet is under 6.5 catches at +113 at DraftKings.
Readers asked the Sims about him 61 times in the last 24 hours, and the yardage questions kept landing on 90, like "Does jsn get 90 receiving yards."
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The Ankle Cuts His Catches
Smith-Njigba is questionable with an ankle injury and was listed as limited on Seattle's estimated reports Monday and Tuesday. If he's ruled out, these props void. If his status changes Wednesday, the Sims re-run.
If he plays, the ankle is the case for the catches under. He leaves hurt in about one game in 12 in the Sims, and he stays under 6.5 catches in 81% of those games. Even healthy, he stays under 50.6% of the time, still above the 46.9% that +113 needs.
Denver's secondary is the case for his yards. Pat Surtain II is doubtful with an ankle sprain and Riley Moss is questionable with a rib injury. Two long catches can beat a yards under even on a five-catch night. That's why I'd rather fade his catches than his yards.
Under 6.5 Catches at +113
Under 6.5 catches, +113 at DraftKings. The card calls it under 7, same bet. +113 pays like he's an underdog to stay under, and the Sims make him a 53.1% favorite. FanDuel's +104 works too. See it in the Sims →
93.5 yards, either side. The Sims split it 49.3% over and 50.7% under, so at -112 neither side clears the juice. Kalshi's 90-yard contract is overpriced too. See it in the Sims →
Under 6.5 catches and a touchdown. DraftKings' same game parlay should pay around +424 for a ticket the Sims price at +342 (22.6%). That's the game where he catches five balls and one is in the end zone. See it in the Sims →
How Low I'd Go
I'm betting under 6.5 catches at +113 and would take it down to +100. The catches-and-TD parlay is a smaller bet, good down to +380. If Surtain and Moss are both ruled out, ask the Sims again before you bet.
Ask the Sims about any other TNF prop in the DraftKings simulator or the FanDuel simulator.
Prices as of Wed Oct 14, 7:38 a.m. CT (FanDuel 7:17 a.m.), from the Sims run at 7:01 a.m. CT. Hero photo: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, FanDuel via YouTube, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
More on this game: Bo Nix Passing Yards Prop: Nobody Has Hit 190 on Seattle · Sam Darnold Completions: 19 Is the Number · NFL Game Simulator: The 13% Parlay That Hits 26% of the Time
