Oh cool, Germie Bernard caught a 6-yard touchdown in overtime in Tampa for me, and Matthew Golden found the end zone for Green Bay in the nightcap, and I had both! However, neither made Week 6's top three touchdown play article, which is a little like buying a winning scratcher and accidentally leaving it in your glovebox until your girlfriend at the time steals it before breaking up with you and cashing it in to buy her and her new loser boyfriend DJ named Brock dinner at Chili's because he can't afford anything of substance. Not that I would know. Also, Chili's is actually delicious, so I apologize.
Anywho, after a disturbing day of football, onward to Monday night, where Washington visits the unbeaten 49ers at Levi's Stadium. San Francisco is 5-0 and laying 7.5 points, the total sits at 52, and both of tonight's plays are quarterbacks. I ran every touchdown contract in this game through Stokastic's Ask the Sims, which plays each game 10,000 times, snap by snap, with a final score and a full box score for every one, and the two best "Yes" edges on the board both belong to the guys taking the snaps. Let's break it down.
The Sims also hand you the game script. San Francisco wins 7,445 of its 10,000 games, and the default projection is 49ers 30, Commanders 22, which matters for both plays below.
Play #1: The Quarterback Who Came Back Running, 28¢ (+240 Effective)
Jayden Daniels dislocated his left elbow in Week 2, the second time in 11 months, and missed two games. He came back against the Giants in Week 5 and ran nine times for 103 yards and two touchdowns, from 38 and 26 yards out, both on scrambles. He was a full participant in practice all week and carries no injury designation for Monday.
On the season he has 21 carries for 203 yards, 0.65 EPA per rush and a 57% success rate, and 16 of those 21 runs were scrambles. That's the case and the risk in one number: Daniels doesn't get much designed work near the goal line, with a grand total of one carry inside the 10 all season, so his touchdowns tend to come from broken plays. The backfield around him is thin, too, with Jacory Croskey-Merritt (groin) ruled out after taking two of Washington's seven carries inside the 10.
San Francisco's run defense ranks eighth by EPA per rush and has held opposing quarterbacks to 49 rushing yards on 13 carries, so this isn't a soft matchup on paper. But Nick Bosa is out, which takes the 49ers' best edge rusher off the field, and Washington projects to be throwing from behind for long stretches as a 7.5-point underdog.
Ask the Sims has Daniels scoring in 33.2% of its 10,000 games (3,316 of them, about +202), against a Kalshi price that costs 29.4¢ once you add the fee, a 3.8¢ edge and the best Yes number in this game. Split it by result and he scores in 44.2% of the 2,480 games Washington wins, and the Sims like him for two touchdowns, too, at 5.4% against 4.3¢ on Kalshi.
Kalshi's 28¢ works out to +240 after the fee, matching FanDuel's +240, with DraftKings and Caesars at +235 and BetMGM at +230. The spread on Kalshi is a little wide at 26¢ bid, 28¢ ask, so a resting order at 27¢ might get filled if you're patient.
Play #2: The Other Quarterback, Too! 21¢ (+351 Effective)
This one comes with an obvious problem, and his name is Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey has nine of San Francisco's 12 carries inside the 10 and five rushing touchdowns, four of them from the 1, so the 49ers' goal-line plan is not a mystery.
Brock Purdy still finds his way in sometimes. He has 25 carries for 128 yards this season, 12 of them scrambles, two carries inside the 10 and a 2-yard touchdown run in Week 2, and he ran 10 times in Week 4. Washington's run defense ranks 18th by EPA per rush and has seen opposing quarterbacks take off 23 times for 108 yards and a touchdown. The 49ers are implied for roughly 30 points, and with Deebo Samuel out and Mike Evans questionable (ribs and Achilles), there are fewer proven red-zone targets for Purdy to throw to.
The Sims have Purdy scoring in 24.9% of their games (2,485 of 10,000, about +302), against a Kalshi price of 22.2¢ with the fee, a 2.6¢ edge. In the 7,445 games San Francisco wins, he scores 27.2% of the time, and his best pairing is the 49ers winning big: a Purdy touchdown and an 18-plus-point San Francisco win hit together 29% more often than their separate prices imply.
Kalshi's 21¢ works out to +351 after the fee, the best number out there, with DraftKings at +330, BetMGM and FanDuel at +320 and Caesars at +305. With McCaffrey standing between Purdy and the goal line, this one gets the smaller stake.
Three Combos the Sims Like
None of these are on the official card, but if you like building Kalshi combos, here's what the Sims would put together from these same legs. The Sims column is how often the combo hit across the 10,000 games, and the expected Kalshi column is the Sims' estimate of what Kalshi's market makers will quote for it:
| Combo | Sims | Expected Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Purdy TD + 49ers win | 20.2¢ | 18.2¢ |
| Daniels TD + Commanders win | 11.0¢ | 8.1¢ |
| Daniels TD + Commanders win by 3+ | 9.7¢ | 6.6¢ |
The Daniels combos are the ones with real cushion, since a Washington upset and a Daniels touchdown tend to show up together. Combo quotes move around more than single contracts do, so check the live price in Kalshi's builder before you buy, and pass if it's above the Sims number.
The Fee Math
Always a reminder for the fine folks newer to playing on Kalshi: they charge a taker fee of 7% of price times one-minus-price, rounded to the cent. In plain English, for Daniels' 28¢ you're adding on 1.41¢, so you're really paying 29.41¢. On Purdy's 21¢ it's 1.16¢, so 22.16¢. Kalshi rounds up at settlement, so treat every effective number here as a ceiling and not a floor.
Also, these are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. And just like at a sportsbook, this is a constantly moving market, so all prices are subject to change. Check actives and inactives 90 minutes before kickoff (especially Evans and Stefon Diggs), make sure you're getting the best price possible, and enjoy the show.
The Official Card
Both contracts sit on the Commanders at 49ers touchdown tab on Kalshi. Prices are accurate as of Sunday, October 18, 2026, 11:30 PM ET. The effective column accounts for the taker fee, and the Sims column is the scoring probability from Ask the Sims:
| Contract | Price | After fee | Effective | Sims | Best book | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels Yes 1+ TD | 28¢ | 29.41¢ | +240 | 33.2% | +240 (FanDuel) | 0.5u |
| Brock Purdy Yes 1+ TD | 21¢ | 22.16¢ | +351 | 24.9% | +330 (DraftKings) | 0.25u |
Both markets are deep. Daniels' contract has traded about 8,300 so far with about 79,700 sitting at the quoted price, and Purdy's has traded about 13,600 with about 52,600 at the ask.
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Final Thoughts
Two quarterbacks, one coming back from an elbow injury and running like it, the other trying to steal one from the best goal-line back in the league. Daniels' ticket misses about seven times out of 10 and Purdy's nearly four times out of five, so size them like it.
As always: no chasing, and no hero sizing on a Monday. Trade smart, trade responsibly, and enjoy the nightcap.
— Lindy
More on this: Monday Night Football Picks: What A 7.5-Point Spread Hides · Sunday Night Football Picks: The Market Is Pricing Last Week · Texans vs Jaguars Kalshi Picks: Houston Throws In London · Thursday Night Football Picks: Surtain Out, Darnold Throws · Broncos vs 49ers Same Game Parlay: Bo Nix Under 250
