Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday, October 7, 2026.
This game opened at Jaguars -3.5 and it has moved through six and through seven, to 7.5 in some spots, because the Eagles' injury list will not stop growing. Philadelphia went 0 for 13 on third down last week. Jacksonville is the better team, and I've said that since the season started. It is also a neutral field in London, and outside of seven is where I get off the Jaguars: Eagles +7.5.
Kickoff: Sunday, October 11, 9:30 AM ET, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Jaguars Win By 7 Or More | 56-57¢ | Jaguars −7 |
| Total: Over 42.5 Points | 47-49¢ | 42.5 |
| Moneyline: Jaguars Win | 75-76¢ | Jaguars -355 / Eagles +280 |
The consensus is seven, with 7.5 out there if you shop. On Kalshi, Jacksonville winning by eight or more is 49 to 50 cents, and by seven or more is 56 to 57, so the half point is worth about seven cents. The Jaguars to win are 75 to 76 cents, about -310. The over at 42.5 is 47 to 49 cents.
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Where The Edges Are
| Matchup | Eagles | Jaguars | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles run game vs Jaguars run D | 21st | 6th | Jaguars D, clearly |
| Eagles passing game vs Jaguars pass D | 26th | 6th | Jaguars D, clearly |
| Eagles pass protection vs Jaguars pass rush | 23rd | 13th | Jaguars D |
| Eagles explosive plays vs Jaguars big-play D | 21st | 25th | even |
| Jaguars run game vs Eagles run D | 27th | 5th | Jaguars O, clearly |
| Jaguars passing game vs Eagles pass D | 22nd | 9th | Jaguars O, clearly |
| Jaguars pass protection vs Eagles pass rush | 32nd | 28th | even |
| Jaguars explosive plays vs Eagles big-play D | 10th | 9th | even |
Ranks out of 32 through Week 4 of 2026, nflverse play-by-play. Run game = EPA per carry, passing = EPA per dropback, protection = sacks-plus-hits rate against pressure rate, explosive = rate of completions of 20-plus. O = that offense has the edge, D = the defense does.
Eagles, best: rushing yards (20th), touchdowns (20th), explosive runs allowed (5th). Worst: success rate (30th), passing yards (29th), pressure (32nd).
Jaguars, best: rushing efficiency (5th), rushing yards (7th), points allowed (2nd). Worst: pass protection (28th), passing yards (23rd), pass defense yards (31st).
Philadelphia Cannot Run, Block Or Convert
The Eagles lost 24-20 at home to the Rams as a 3.5-point dog, their second straight loss and their fourth straight game without a cover. Jalen Hurts went 12 of 27 for 93 yards with two touchdowns, 0 for 2 on deep throws, and took four sacks. The offense had a 33% success rate, no completions of 20-plus, and went 0 for 13 on third down. The week before, Chicago held them to seven points.
Lane Johnson's retirement took the right side of the line with it, and Cam Jurgens has been the worst guard in football. Saquon Barkley is week to week. Tank Bigsby, who carried 14 times last week, is on injured reserve. DeVonta Smith has a hamstring injury, Dallas Goedert is doubtful, and on defense Zack Baun, Quinyon Mitchell and Jonathan Greenard are all in question. Philadelphia is 29th in EPA per play and last in pressure rate. As an Eagles fan, I think the season is effectively over.
Jacksonville Is Good, The Number Is Big
The Jaguars won 22-17 in Cincinnati as a 2.5-point dog. Trevor Lawrence went 18 of 24 for 227 with a touchdown, Brenton Strange caught seven of eight targets for 95, and the run game went for 113 yards. The defense held Cincinnati to 18 rushing yards on 13 carries and hit Joe Burrow 11 times. Jacksonville has allowed 13.2 points a game, second in the league, and ranks seventh in EPA per play on offense and sixth on defense.
I'm a believer in Lawrence, in Parker Washington, in Liam Coen's offense and in this defense. Lawrence has also had his struggles against Philadelphia, and there is no home field here. The right way to play the Jaguars was at -3.5, knowing the injuries would carry into another week, or at 6.5 inside of seven. That number is gone.
Why The Points Anyway
When a line runs from 3.5 through seven, the instinct is to chase it. That move already happened, and on a neutral field the spread is doing what it is supposed to do, which is even the game out. Saying the Jaguars win is different from saying they win by eight. Philadelphia's offense has to find one or two drives to stay inside the number, against a Jaguars offense that ranks 12th in scoring.
The Pick
Eagles +7.5.On Kalshi, that is Jacksonville not winning by eight or more, 50 to 51 cents.
Take the half point if you can find it. At seven flat, a Jaguars win by exactly a touchdown is a push, and Kalshi's version of that bet costs about seven cents more.
Ask The SimsThe same Sims that have won DFS players tens of millions of dollars now build parlays for every game. Ask them about London the way you see it: best parlay if Philadelphia's offense stalls again, best Jaguars parlay if Trevor Lawrence throws for 250, best combo if the Eagles cover 7.5. One question per script, a parlay for each, free in the Kalshi Combo Simulator.
Injury Report
- Philadelphia's offense. Saquon Barkley is week to week, Tank Bigsby is on injured reserve, DeVonta Smith (hamstring) may not play, and Dallas Goedert is doubtful. Lane Johnson retired.
- Philadelphia's defense. Zack Baun, Quinyon Mitchell and Jonathan Greenard are all uncertain. Watch Friday's designations.
- Neutral site. Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, 9:30 AM ET. Jacksonville is the designated home team.
- The half point. Seven is the consensus; 7.5 is available in spots and is the number to take.
My picks for the rest of Week 5 are in NFL Week 5 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: All-Pro Reels via Wikimedia Commons (Jalen Hurts 2022 Eagles.jpg), CC BY-SA 2.0; cropped and toned.
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