Kickoff: Sunday, October 11, 9:30 AM ET, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
The Eagles are going to be pulling guys off the streets of Kensington and slapping pads on them soon. Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith are both out with hamstring injuries. Tank Bigsby is on injured reserve. Lane Johnson retired on Tuesday, Cam Jurgens was traded to Baltimore on Wednesday, and Drew Kendall, the center who was supposed to replace him, is out too. Dallas Goedert is back, but a tight end doesn't help much when you can't pass block to begin with.
So why the hell am I betting on an Eagles running back to score? Sometimes you just have to take the value when it presents itself.
Disagree With Me?Good. Ask the Sims your version of this game: how often Bhayshul Tuten scores twice if Jacksonville wins by double digits, or how often Jalen Hurts runs one in himself. The same Sims that have won DFS players tens of millions of dollars now build parlays, free in the Kalshi Combo Simulator.
The Prices
| Bet | Kalshi | Sims |
|---|---|---|
| Will Shipley scores | 27¢ | 35% |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. scores | 22¢ | 28% |
| Both score (2-leg combo) | 5.9¢ | 9.2% |
Kalshi touchdown prices as of 4:30 PM ET Friday; combo price as of 2:27 PM ET Friday. Sims from Friday's 9:10 AM ET run of 10,000 games.
Stay ahead of the markets.
Daily insights and expert picks on Kalshi, Polymarket, and what's moving markets.
Free forever. Unsubscribe anytime.
Shipley Gets The Work
With Barkley and Bigsby both gone, Will Shipley should get the bulk of the carries in Philadelphia's backfield, with Dameon Pierce behind him. Shipley has been the No. 2 or No. 3 back all season: 15 carries for 51 yards, four catches and no touchdowns yet. In Weeks 2 and 4, when Barkley barely played, Shipley was on the field for 51% and 48% of the snaps.
The Jaguars have done an excellent job against the run. They allow 3.0 yards a carry, second-fewest in the league, and 63 rushing yards a game. Shipley probably won't run for 100 yards. He only has to score once, and when the Eagles get inside the 10, the lead back is the one getting the ball.
We simulate every game 10,000 times. When I asked the Sims how often Shipley scores on Sunday, the answer was 35%, 3,469 of 10,000 games. On Kalshi he's 27 cents. Think of that 27 cents as the break-even: he only has to score 27% of the time for the bet to pay off over the long run. The Sims have him about seven points above that.
Why The Price Matters More Than The Pick
Before you say the Eagles are trash and you're throwing your money away: part of me agrees. Have you seen this league, though? The Commanders beat the Seahawks 33-31 in Week 3. The 0-4 Buccaneers went into Dallas on Thursday night as 9.5-point underdogs and won 24-16. The Chargers lost their opener at home to the Cardinals by 12.
You will never pick every winner. If you get a better number than the bet deserves every single time, you're going to be profitable long-term. That's where Shipley comes in, and believe it or not, so does Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Rodriguez Gets Half The Goal-Line Work
Bhayshul Tuten is Jacksonville's lead back with 60 carries to Rodriguez's 26. Near the goal line they split it. Inside the 10-yard line, the Jaguars have run it six times this season: three for Tuten, three for Rodriguez. Inside the 5 it's two apiece, and Rodriguez has scored on one of them. It's a small sample, four games and six carries, but Jacksonville has given both backs the ball when it gets close.
Rodriguez is 22 cents on Kalshi. The Sims have him scoring 28% of the time, 2,786 of 10,000 games.
The Pick
Will Shipley and Chris Rodriguez Jr. both score, 5.9¢.$11.46 pays $182.00 on Kalshi.
When I asked the Sims how often Shipley and Rodriguez score in the same game, the answer was over 9%: 924 of 10,000 games. I locked the combo in at under six cents.
The responsible thing to tell you: these two are probably better bet as singles. The two touchdowns don't help each other. The Sims have them landing together 9.2% of the time, a hair under the 9.7% you'd get multiplying the two legs. The combo is two good prices stacked, and a 9% bet loses 91 times out of 100. If you'd rather cash more often, buy each touchdown on its own.
Build this pick your way in the Kalshi Combo Simulator.
Injury Report
- Philadelphia, out: RB Saquon Barkley (hamstring), WR DeVonta Smith (hamstring), C Drew Kendall (knee). RB Tank Bigsby is on injured reserve.
- Philadelphia, back: TE Dallas Goedert (knee) and LB Zack Baun (concussion) are available. Dontayvion Wicks hurt his hamstring in Thursday's practice and is available.
- Philadelphia's line: RT Lane Johnson retired Tuesday. C Cam Jurgens was traded to the Ravens on Wednesday.
- Jacksonville: Tuten and Rodriguez carry no injury status.
My full Eagles vs Jaguars pick is here, and my picks for the rest of Week 5 are in NFL Week 5 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero helmets: Philadelphia Eagles Uniforms (2026).png by TheGoodGeneral 1, licensed CC BY 4.0, and Jacksonville Jaguars Uniforms 2024.png by DaRealConMan, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons; cropped.
More on this: Eagles vs Jaguars Anytime TD Picks: The 27-Cent Dive · Eagles vs Jaguars Kalshi Picks: Hurts Without His Weapons · Eagles vs Jaguars London Picks: As Gross As It Feels · Jaguars vs Bengals Same Game Parlay: Tuten Under 70 · Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars Anytime TD Scorer Picks (10/11)
