Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Wednesday, October 7, 2026.
A lot of people are going to love the Patriots this week after they went into Buffalo and beat the Bills as seven-point dogs. Drake Maye's biggest problem this season is turning the ball over: seven interceptions, three lost fumbles and ten sacks in four games. The Raiders lead the league with nine takeaways. You get them outside of a field goal: Raiders +3.5.
Kickoff: Sunday, October 11, 1:00 PM ET, Gillette Stadium
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Patriots Win By 4 Or More | – | Patriots −3.5 |
| Total: Over 45.5 Points | 47-48¢ | 45.5 |
| Moneyline: Patriots Win | 63-64¢ | Patriots -192 / Raiders +160 |
On Kalshi, New England winning by four or more is 50 to 51 cents, and the Patriots to win are 63 to 64 cents, about -175. The over at 45.5 is 47 to 48 cents.
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Where The Edges Are
| Matchup | Raiders | Patriots | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders run game vs Patriots run D | 29th | 29th | even |
| Raiders passing game vs Patriots pass D | 7th | 5th | even |
| Raiders pass protection vs Patriots pass rush | 14th | 16th | even |
| Raiders explosive plays vs Patriots big-play D | 17th | 11th | Patriots D |
| Patriots run game vs Raiders run D | 7th | 26th | Raiders D, clearly |
| Patriots passing game vs Raiders pass D | 3rd | 20th | Raiders D, clearly |
| Patriots pass protection vs Raiders pass rush | 3rd | 12th | Raiders D |
| Patriots explosive plays vs Raiders big-play D | 13th | 10th | even |
Ranks out of 32 through Week 4 of 2026, nflverse play-by-play. Run game = EPA per carry, passing = EPA per dropback, protection = sacks-plus-hits rate against pressure rate, explosive = rate of completions of 20-plus. O = that offense has the edge, D = the defense does.
Raiders, best: passing efficiency (7th), scoring (8th), defense overall (2nd). Worst: rushing efficiency (29th), ypc (28th), ypc allowed (31st).
Patriots, best: ypa (6th), explosive passes (10th), pass defense yards (4th). Worst: scoring (30th), ypc (29th), run stuffs (32nd).
Las Vegas Takes The Ball Away
The Raiders lost 30-27 to Kansas City and covered as 4.5-point dogs, which makes them 4-0 against the spread. Kirk Cousins threw 50 times for 365 yards with two touchdowns, and Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer combined for 14 catches. That was a very competitive game until the final couple of minutes.
The defense is the reason they are a tough matchup. Las Vegas is second in EPA per play allowed, third against the pass and third in pressure rate, with nine takeaways, the most in the league. Maxx Crosby is Maxx Crosby, Nakobe Dean has been an animal, and the list keeps going. The one blemish came last week: Kansas City ran for 189 yards on 24 carries.
Maye Gives It Away
New England beat Buffalo 29-26 as a seven-point dog in what was a must-win for the Patriots' spirits. Maye went 22 of 38 for 269 with three touchdowns and an interception. Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson combined for 89 yards on 27 carries, and Romeo Doubs caught two touchdowns.
The season numbers are less flattering. New England is 30th in scoring at 16.2 points a game, 22nd in EPA per play, and Maye has seven interceptions, three lost fumbles and ten sacks. The Patriots also lost 35-6 in Jacksonville two weeks ago. Getting stripped in the pocket, throwing picks and taking bad sacks is exactly what this Raiders defense is built to cash in on.
The Pick
Raiders +3.5.On Kalshi, that is New England not winning by four or more, 49 to 50 cents.
Take the hook. A Patriots win by a field goal still cashes at +3.5.
Ask The SimsOur Sims have won DFS players tens of millions of dollars. Now they build parlays. Ask them about Foxborough any way you think it goes: best parlay if the Raiders win, best combo if Drake Maye throws two interceptions, best Patriots parlay if they win by a touchdown. One question, one parlay per script, free in the Kalshi Combo Simulator.
Injury Report
- Drake Maye's ball security. Seven interceptions and three lost fumbles in four games. The Raiders' defense leads the league in takeaways.
- New England's run defense. 29th in EPA per carry allowed. Ashton Jeanty had 58 yards last week; this is a better matchup for him.
- Weather. Outdoors in Foxborough. Check the wind on Sunday morning.
My picks for the rest of Week 5 are in NFL Week 5 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero photo: All-Pro Reels via Wikimedia Commons (2025 Raiders at Commanders 104.jpg), CC BY-SA 4.0; cropped and toned.
More on this: The More Complete Team: Patriots vs Jaguars Picks · Classic Letdown Spot: Raiders vs Saints Picks · Raiders vs Chargers Picks: The Half Point Changed My Side · Steelers vs Patriots Picks: Then I Watched Rodgers Go Deep · A.J. Brown Injury: The Patriots Got Sold, Then Bought Back
