New England held Pittsburgh to three points on Sunday and its division contract got cheaper anyway, because Buffalo is 2-0 and the market has stopped waiting for the Bills' defense to cost them a game. The eight models that priced this division blind on September 5 still have the Patriots first, and two weeks of results now cut against them on both of the teams that matter.
Prices on Kalshi as of September 24, 2026, 8:45 a.m. CT, quoted as the price to buy Yes; the panel's numbers are its September 5 run and do not move. A Yes contract pays $1 if the team wins the division, so the price in cents reads as the chance.
| Team | Record, points for and against | Kalshi, Sept. 24 (bid / ask) | Sept. 14 | Sept. 5 | Panel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 2-0, 77-62 | 69¢ / 70¢ | 63¢ | 56¢ | 37.0% |
| New England Patriots | 1-1, 30-16 | 27¢ / 28¢ | 32¢ | 39.5¢ | 56.5% |
| New York Jets | 1-1, 40-30 | 4¢ / 5¢ | 7¢ | 3.5¢ | 3.8% |
| Miami Dolphins | 0-2, 26-62 | 0¢ / 1¢ | 1¢ | 2.5¢ | 3.0% |
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The Two Numbers Swapped Names
The two numbers at the top of this board have swapped names since September 5 and the gap keeps widening. Buffalo asks 70¢ (-233) where the panel's middle answer is 37; New England asks 28¢ (+257) where the panel's middle answer is 56.5. On September 5 the market and the panel were 19 points apart on Buffalo and 17 on New England. This morning they are 33 apart on Buffalo and 28 apart on New England, and the last seven of those cents moved in a week when both teams won.
A 20-3 home win over Pittsburgh did not buy New England a single cent. Buffalo beating Detroit 41-31 took four cents off the Patriots and added seven to the Bills, because a one-game lead with the head-to-head still two weeks away reads to traders as a lead the Patriots have to erase in Orchard Park rather than one they can wait out.
What Two Weeks Did To The Panel's Case
The panel's whole case on Buffalo was a bear case about the defense: 31st of 32 in rushing EPA allowed last season, no evidence the leak was closed. Two weeks in, the leak is the loudest fact on the board. Buffalo has allowed 62 points, the most of any 2-0 team in the league, and its point differential is plus 15 on 77 scored. Houston ran for 124 yards on it in Week 1. Detroit ran for 66 on Sunday and threw for 327 instead, with Jared Goff finding four touchdowns. The defense the panel described is the defense that showed up.
The panel priced Buffalo at 37 anyway, and this is where the two weeks argue back. Josh Allen has 582 passing yards, fourth in the league, and on Sunday he went 20 of 31 for 248 yards and three scores while adding 69 yards and two more touchdowns on the ground. James Cook ran 21 times for 135 yards. Buffalo converted nine of 12 third downs and put up 446 yards on a Detroit defense that had allowed 30 to New Orleans a week earlier. The Bills do not need the leak closed. They outscore it, which is what they did in Week 1 too, and the market has decided that two games is enough to stop discounting it.
New England's case was the mirror image, and it has inverted too. Every seat built the Patriots' 56.5 on the league's best passing offense, first in EPA per dropback, with the sack rate as the one caveat. Through two games New England has scored 30 points. Drake Maye's Sunday was 14 of 22 for 208 yards with no touchdown passes and an interception, behind three sacks, a week after three interceptions in Seattle. What has carried the Patriots to 1-1 is the side nobody priced: 16 points allowed, the fewest in the NFL, and a Pittsburgh afternoon in which Aaron Rodgers averaged 4.8 yards an attempt, the Steelers converted two of 12 third downs and turned it over twice. TreVeyon Henderson ran for 76 yards and the offense's only touchdown, a 39-yard run; the other came on a fumble return.
So the panel got both stories right and both conclusions wrong so far. Buffalo's defense leaks and the Bills win anyway. New England's offense has not arrived and the Patriots are held up by a defense the panel barely mentioned. Twenty-four seasons of this division still say the champion repeats 78 percent of the time, and the panel's correction still stands: take only champions who had just taken the division from somebody else, New England's exact situation, and three of four repeated.
Every Model's September Number
| Model | Buffalo | New England | NY Jets | Miami |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable | 37.0% | 55.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% |
| Claude Opus | 37.0% | 54.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% |
| Claude Sonnet | 37.0% | 56.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| GPT | 36.0% | 57.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| Gemini | 38.0% | 57.0% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| GLM | 37.0% | 57.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Kimi | 38.0% | 57.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% |
| DeepSeek | 38.0% | 55.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| Median | 37.0% | 56.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements. Records as of the September 5 run: Claude Fable 89% on 1,833 graded calls · Claude Opus 89% on 1,920 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 87% on 1,897 graded calls · GPT 85% on 8,328 graded calls · Gemini 87% on 7,014 graded calls · GLM 83% on 3,179 graded calls · Kimi 86% on 3,412 graded calls · DeepSeek 83% on 3,260 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
Read across the New England column and the range is three and a half points, from 54 to 57.5. Eight models built eight separate views of this division and finished inside that band. The agreement is the finding, and so is what it is agreeing against: a market that has the same team 28 cents lower and moving the wrong way after a win.
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Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
Nobody switched sides in the revision round, but the two seats furthest from the group walked back toward it from opposite directions. Claude Sonnet started lowest on New England at 47 and finished at 56, the largest move on the board, and its reason is the one two weeks have tested hardest:
"But Buffalo's underlying numbers were close, not distant: #3 offense EPA (0.140 vs 0.157), #2 rushing offense, and a defense that was actually better than New England's against the pass (dropback EPA allowed -0.068 vs -0.038). Josh Allen at 30 remains the highest floor QB in the division. What pulls me off a near-even split is concrete and non-record-based: Buffalo fired the coach who won five straight division titles and replaced him with a zero-experience Joe Brady, and its 2026 calendar is materially harder."
Claude Sonnet
Joe Brady is 2-0 with 77 points. The calendar argument is still ahead of him.
Claude Opus moved least and priced New England lowest at the end, on the arithmetic under the record:
"New England's +170 over 17 games implies roughly 11.5-12 Pythagorean wins, so 14-3 outran its own differential by about two games… That is a one-win talent gap dressed up as a two-win standings gap. So I will not price NE near 60."
Claude Opus
What Would Change The Panel's Mind, Two Weeks In
- A multi-week injury to Drake Maye or Josh Allen. Every seat named it first. Neither has one. Both are listed active on ESPN's rosters this morning, and both played every meaningful snap Sunday.
- The Week 4 result at Buffalo, on October 4. Still the hinge, and now it carries more than the head-to-head tiebreaker. Claude Opus put a Buffalo win plus a 3-1 start at moving the Bills toward 45; the market is already 25 cents past that. A New England road win is the one result that can pull these two numbers back toward each other.
- Evidence Buffalo's run defense has been rebuilt. Houston's 124 rushing yards said no. Detroit's 66 on 20 carries said maybe, and then Detroit threw for 327. Two readings, no verdict, and the points-allowed column says the problem moved rather than closed.
- New England's offensive line through September. Gemini flagged the sack rate as the tell. Three sacks against Pittsburgh on 25 dropbacks, and a passing game that has not produced a touchdown in two weeks. This is the trigger reading worst for the Patriots, and the market is not the only one that noticed.
Week 3 And The Road To October 4
Buffalo hosts the Chargers on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET as a seven-point favorite, against an 0-2 team that has scored 28 points. New England goes to Jacksonville as a three-point underdog, its first road game since Seattle. The Jets are at Detroit, six and a half points behind, and Miami hosts Kansas City as a 10.5-point home underdog with a contract that has no bid. The panel's read on Miami, 3 percent, was the closest any seat came to the market on any team, and even that now looks generous.
| Date | What happens |
|---|---|
| September 20, 2026 | Week 2. Buffalo 41, Detroit 31 · New England 20, Pittsburgh 3 · Green Bay 20, Jets 17 (OT) · San Francisco 35, Miami 13 |
| September 27, 2026 | Week 3. Chargers at Buffalo · New England at Jacksonville · Jets at Detroit · Kansas City at Miami |
| October 4, 2026 | Week 4. New England at Buffalo, the season's first division game and the first tiebreaker |
| December 6, 2026 | Week 13. Buffalo at New England, the rematch, with the Bills on 10 days of rest |
| January 10, 2027 | Week 18. Miami at New England and the Jets at Buffalo close the regular season |
| January 11, 2027 | Expected expiration. Contracts can close earlier once a champion is declared |
Contracts settle when the NFL names the division champion; head-to-head is the first tiebreaker, and these two play on October 4 in Orchard Park and December 6 in Foxborough. If the Patriots are 2-1 and the Bills 3-0 when they meet, a New England win puts the head-to-head in its pocket with a one-game gap, and the board re-prices in one afternoon. If Buffalo wins, the Bills lead by two with the tiebreaker, and this page will be about how far 70 cents can climb.
Projections and hit rates on this page are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
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