Two weeks into the season the AFC South favorite is the team that won it last year, and Houston, 0-2 with six points in its last game, has dropped to second on a board it led all summer. The eight models that priced this division blind on August 24 could not separate the top two, and the market has since moved 17 cents toward them and kept going.
Prices on Kalshi as of September 24, 2026, 8:45 a.m. CT, quoted as the price to buy Yes; the panel's numbers are its August 24 run and do not move. A Yes contract pays $1 if the team wins the division, so the price in cents reads as the chance.
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The Favorite Flipped
| Team | Record, points for and against | Kalshi, Sept. 24 (bid / ask) | Aug. 24 midpoint | Panel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1-1, 47-30 | 43¢ / 45¢ | 28.5¢ | 35.0% |
| Houston Texans | 0-2, 37-56 | 38¢ / 39¢ | 45.5¢ | 34.5% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0-2, 53-74 | 15¢ / 16¢ | 19.5¢ | 23.5% |
| Tennessee Titans | 0-2, 30-47 | 2¢ / 3¢ | 9.5¢ | 6.0% |
On August 24 the market had Houston 17 cents clear of Jacksonville and the panel had the two teams a half point apart, Jacksonville ahead. This morning Jacksonville asks 45¢ (+122) and Houston 39¢ (+156). The order the panel found is now the order the market pays for, and the six-cent gap between them is closer to the panel's half point than to the 17 cents the market started with. Indianapolis, the panel's biggest disagreement with the market in the other direction, has lost twice and its ask has fallen from 19.5 to 16. Tennessee has gone from a dime to three cents.
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Houston: The Yards Are There And The Points Are Not
The market's summer case for Houston was an elite defense plus a rebuilt offensive line in front of C.J. Stroud. Two weeks in, the defense has allowed 56 points, the line has lost right tackle Braden Smith to injured reserve, and Stroud is producing the strangest stat line in the division. He has 627 passing yards, third in the league behind Tyler Shough and Bryce Young, and Houston has scored 37 points. On Sunday against Cincinnati he threw 55 times for 353 yards, was sacked four times, and the Texans finished with 374 yards, five of 17 on third down, and six points. They did not turn the ball over. They just never scored a touchdown.
That is the receiver ledger the panel kept naming in August, arriving on schedule. Jayden Higgins and Tank Dell are both on injured reserve, and Nico Collins is listed questionable on ESPN's injury page this week. The panel held Houston at 34.5 for exactly this reason, and Claude Opus wrote the line that has aged best on the page:
"What keeps Houston at 33 rather than lower is the OL rebuild (Rutledge, Teller, Smith, Ingram) aimed straight at Stroud's collapse to a 32nd PFF grade. What keeps it from being higher is the receiver ledger: Higgins on IR with a torn ACL, Dell 'on his own plan,' and Zay Jones and Sterling Shepard signed off tryouts. A rebuilt line can't throw to itself."
Claude Opus
Houston has not played a division game yet, and its first three are all away from home: at Indianapolis on Sunday, at Tennessee in Week 5, and Jacksonville at Wembley in Week 6. The Texans do not host a division opponent until November 19. Sunday is the one that matters this week. Houston is a two-and-a-half-point favorite in Indianapolis, the market's way of saying an 0-2 team with a healthy quarterback is still better than an 0-2 team that gave up 33 in Kansas City. An 0-3 Houston with an 0-1 division record would be a very different contract than a 39-cent one.
Jacksonville: Favored, And Just Lost
The Jaguars took the top of this board by winning once and losing once, which tells you how much of the move was Houston's. Jacksonville beat Cleveland 34-10 in Week 1 and then lost 20-13 in Denver on Sunday, an afternoon in which Trevor Lawrence went 17 of 29 for 189 yards with no touchdowns and an interception and the offense managed 268 yards. Bhayshul Tuten's 65 yards and a score on 13 carries were the best thing on the sheet.
Nothing about that game makes Jacksonville a 45-cent favorite. What does is the profile the panel liked in August, still intact: a plus 17 point differential built on a defense that has allowed 30 points in two games, fewest in the division, and the continuity everywhere Houston has churn. Liam Coen is in year two, Lawrence is healthy, and Travis Hunter is on the active roster at receiver. Claude Fable's August line still reads as the case:
"Jacksonville's balanced +138 with both units top-eight is sturdier than Houston's defense-only +109 behind a 32nd-graded quarterback and a receiver room losing bodies in August."
Claude Fable
Sunday brings New England to Jacksonville with the Jaguars favored by three, and the London stretch is still the structural cost on the calendar: Philadelphia at Tottenham in Week 5 and Houston at Wembley in Week 6, two of Jacksonville's eight home dates played in England, with the bye after. The history has not changed either. Jacksonville has won this division three times and never repeated, against a 48 percent repeat rate for the division's champions. At 45 cents the market is now paying for the first repeat, and the panel, at 35, was not.
Indianapolis And Tennessee: Two Losses Each, One Of Them Close
The panel's biggest stand-alone disagreement with the market in August was the Colts, 23.5 against a 19.5-cent price, on the argument that 8-9 was two seasons wearing one record and Daniel Jones healthy was worth most of the gap. Jones has started both games. Indianapolis lost 41-23 to Baltimore and then took Kansas City to overtime on Monday night before losing 33-30, with Jones at 22 of 31 for 210 yards and Jonathan Taylor at 24 carries, 92 yards and two touchdowns. Taylor's 190 rushing yards on the season are fifth in the league. The Colts have scored 53 points, more than Houston and Jacksonville, and allowed 74, more than anyone in the division.
That is a team that can win Sunday's home game against Houston, and the market does not think it will: Houston is favored by two and a half. An Indianapolis win puts the Colts at 1-0 in the division with the head-to-head over Houston banked, and it is the single result this week that would move this board most. At 16 cents (+525) the contract prices that as a long shot. The panel would have called it closer.
Tennessee is 0-2 by a total of 17 points, 23-10 to the Jets and 24-20 to Philadelphia, and trades at three cents. The infrastructure the panel credited in August, Robert Saleh, Brian Daboll, Cam Ward in year two, has produced a team that keeps games close and has not won one. GLM's 9 percent was the highest seat on the Titans; the market has now gone below every seat on the panel.
Every Model's August Number
The AI blend is the median of eight independent models after a revision round in which each one read the others' reasoning without knowing which model wrote what. These are the August 24 numbers and they have not been re-scored.
| Model | Houston | Jacksonville | Indianapolis | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable | 34.0% | 37.0% | 22.0% | 7.0% |
| Claude Opus | 33.0% | 36.0% | 25.0% | 6.0% |
| Claude Sonnet | 36.0% | 33.0% | 24.0% | 7.0% |
| GPT | 34.0% | 37.0% | 23.0% | 6.0% |
| Gemini | 36.0% | 34.0% | 24.0% | 6.0% |
| GLM | 35.0% | 33.0% | 23.0% | 9.0% |
| Kimi | 36.0% | 34.0% | 24.0% | 6.0% |
| DeepSeek | 33.0% | 38.0% | 23.0% | 6.0% |
| Median | 34.5% | 35.0% | 23.5% | 6.0% |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements. Records as of the August 24 run: Claude Fable 84% on 707 graded calls · Claude Opus 84% on 777 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 82% on 755 graded calls · GPT 84% on 6,039 graded calls · Gemini 86% on 4,746 graded calls · GLM 81% on 2,504 graded calls · Kimi 83% on 2,494 graded calls · DeepSeek 80% on 2,542 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full graded scoreboard carries each seat's running record.
Four seats put Houston first, four put Jacksonville first, and all eight landed both teams between 33 and 38. The panel's argument with the market was never about which team is better. It was that 17 cents was too much daylight between two teams it could not separate, and two weeks later the daylight is six cents, running the other way.
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Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
Six of the eight seats swapped their top team between rounds: three moved from Houston to Jacksonville, three from Jacksonville to Houston, and only Claude Fable and Claude Sonnet finished where they started. A panel that cannot hold an order across one reading of its own arguments was saying the order was a coin flip, and the market has now priced it closer to one.
DeepSeek made the largest revision, Houston from 38 to 33 and Jacksonville from 25 to 38, and its second-round reason is the one Sunday in Houston confirmed:
"The real differentiator is Houston's receiving corps: Jayden Higgins is out with a torn ACL, Tank Dell is on an undefined plan, and Jaylin Noel is questionable, forcing the Texans to sign Zay Jones and Sterling Shepard off August tryouts. Even with a rebuilt offensive line, C.J. Stroud's 32nd-ranked PFF season may not reverse without weapons, and a defense-driven +109 net tends to regress."
DeepSeek
Claude Opus caught the schedule error another seat had made, that Houston opened with three of four division games at home, and corrected it: the first three are all road or London. That is the stretch Houston enters on Sunday at 0-2.
What Would Change The Panel's Mind, Two Weeks In
- Tank Dell cleared, or another Houston skill-position loss. Dell and Higgins went on injured reserve, on September 4 and September 8 per ESPN, and Collins is questionable this week. Every model said that pushes Houston below Jacksonville, and it has.
- Daniel Jones's status. Jones has started both games and was 22 of 31 in Kansas City, and it has not helped. The panel's 28 percent on full mobility assumed the wins would follow; Indianapolis is 0-2 and 16 cents.
- Stroud's efficiency through Weeks 1 to 4 behind the new line. Kimi's trigger for pushing Houston toward 45. Two games in: 627 yards, 6.4 yards an attempt on Sunday, four sacks, and a starting right tackle on injured reserve. The number is moving the other way.
- The Travis Hunter role split. Hunter is listed at receiver on the active roster and the dispute has gone quiet, which is the version three seats said moves Jacksonville above Houston.
Week 3 And The Settlement Timeline
| Date | What happens |
|---|---|
| September 20, 2026 | Week 2. Denver 20, Jacksonville 13 · Cincinnati 20, Houston 6 · Philadelphia 24, Tennessee 20 · Kansas City 33, Indianapolis 30 (OT) |
| September 27, 2026 | Week 3. Houston at Indianapolis (HOU -2.5), the season's first division game · New England at Jacksonville (JAX -3) · Tennessee at the Giants |
| October 18, 2026 | Week 6. Houston vs Jacksonville at Wembley Stadium, London |
| December 20, 2026 | Week 15. Jacksonville at Houston, the rematch |
| January 10, 2027 | Week 18. Jacksonville at Indianapolis and Tennessee at Houston close the regular season |
| January 11, 2027 | Expected expiration. Contracts can close earlier once a champion is declared |
Contracts settle when the NFL names the division champion, with head-to-head the first tiebreaker. A title here has never cost fewer than nine wins, and the average champion has won 11.2. Houston at 0-2 needs 11-4 the rest of the way to get there; Jacksonville at 1-1 needs 10-5. Sunday in Indianapolis is the first time either number can move on a division result, and the Wembley game three weeks later is where the six cents between the top two get settled.
Projections and hit rates on this page are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
The panel's calls are on the record. See the live model verdict on the AFC Championship, or the full NFL board index for every market we track this season.
More on this: NFL 2026 on Kalshi: 49 Live Boards, 10 Days To Kickoff · AFC East Odds: The Patriots Won And Still Got Cheaper · NFC South Odds 2026: The 6-11 Team Is Priced Second · AFC North Odds: The Right Favorite At The Wrong Price · AFC West Odds: The Raiders Passed The Chargers
